Book Description

Bringing together a collection of previously published work, this book provides a timely discussion of major considerations relating to the construction of econometric models that work well to explain economic phenomena, predict future outcomes and be useful for policy-making. Analytical relations between dynamic econometric structural models and empirical time series MVARMA, VAR, transfer function, and univariate ARIMA models are established with important application for model-checking and model construction. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are also presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision and the new Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that features demand, supply and entry equations for major sectors of economies is analysed and described. This volume will prove invaluable to professionals, academics and students alike. ... Read more

Book Description

Non-market valuation has become a broadly accepted and widely practiced means of measuring the economic values of the environment and natural resources. In this book, now available in paperback, the authors provide a guide to the statistical and econometric practices that economists employ in estimating non-market values.

The authors develop the econometric models that underlie the basic methods: contingent valuation, travel cost models, random utility models and hedonic models. They analyze the measurement of non-market values as a procedure with two steps: the estimation of parameters of demand and preference functions and the calculation of benefits from the estimated models. Each of the models is carefully developed from the preference function to the behavioral or response function that researchers observe. The models are then illustrated with data sets that characterize the kinds of data researchers typically deal with.

The real world data and clarity of writing in this book will appeal to environmental economists, students, researchers and practitioners in multilateral banks and government agencies. ... Read more

Book Description

INTRODUCTION TO APPLIED ECONOMETRICS puts the "econ" back in econometrics by integrating classic empirical examples and applications into an introductory development of econometrics. This book rethinks the pedagogy of econometrics so as to build toward an introduction to recent developments in time series analysis, as opposed to the traditional approach that culminates in a treatment of simultaneous equations. This permits a focus on a more limited set of theoretical principles and analytical tools than is true of most books. The text is appropriate for both undergraduate and graduate students at four-year colleges and universities. While it does not employ matrix algebra as purely graduate level texts do, it seeks to present a well-developed and better-motivated approach through the use of applications and case studies. Its coverage goes beyond the ordinary by including four chapters on time series techniques. ... Read more

Book Description

This book contributes substantively to the current state of the art of macroeconomic modeling by providing a method for modeling large collections of heterogeneous agents subject to nonpairwise externality called field effects, i.e. feedback of aggregate effects on individual agents or agents using state-dependent strategies.Adopting a level of microeconomic description that keeps track of compositions of fractions of agents by "types" or "strategies", time evolution of the microeconomic states is described by (backward) Chapman-Kolmogorov equations. ... Read more

Reviews (2)

Content
Content: 1 Introduction 2 Simple Illustrative and Motivating Examples 3 Empirical Distributions: Statistical Laws in Macroeconomics 4 Modeling Interactions I: Jump Markov Processes 5 Modeling Interactions II: Master Equations and Field Effects 6 Modeling Interactions III: Pairwise and Multiple-Pair Interactions 7 Sluggish Dynamics and Hierarchical State Spaces 8 Self-organizing and Other Critical Phenomena in Economic Models Elaborations and Future Directions of Research Appendix References Index

A stimulating synthesis -- physics models of social systems
Can statistical physics methods be used to help understand and predict the behaviors of groups of people over time?Aoki, a well-known expert in optimal control theory and dynamic models applied to economic models,suggests that they can.This book offers an inspiring medley of technicalideas and probabilistic models -- based on analogies to spin glasses,self-organizing physical systems, and key ideas of statistical mechanics --to make plausible the idea that behaviors of aggregates of rational actors,too, can be predicted statistically.(Enthusiasts of Isaac Asimov'sFoundation series, take note!)

The book is worth studying carefully forits ideas and models, even though its main thesis may not ultimately beconvincing.It presents and illustrates modeling techniques that will beuseful to marketing scientists and quantitative social scientists as wellas to economists.A central idea is that individual behaviors can berepresented by transitions among discrete choices or microstates, while therates at which these transitions take place may depend on the frequencydistribution of the whole population (and/or of local subpopulations)amongmicrostates.The result is an adaptive process in which individual choicesdefine the aggregate macrostate (i.e., the frequency distribution ofindividuals of various distinguished types among microstates), which inturn affects subsequent choices.Whether this adaptive process will reachany equilibrium, and, if so, which one and how and when, are principalconcerns addressed through various well-analyzed models.

The techniquesintroduced and illustrated are primarily, partition function and stochasticprocess methods, including jump processes, diffusion processes, andmartingale methods.Other ideas, from critical process theory, stochasticepidemics, large deviations, and maximum entropy econometrics and physics,are introduced and exploited where appropriate.The practical value ofsuch methods to modelers cannot be denied.Aoki's main theme, that suchtechniques can be used to predict behaviors of populations of individuals,is not buttressed by any real applications.The models presented may betoo simple to capture what many social scientists would consider essentialreal-world complexities, such as the generation of new player types androles and the effects of boundaries and spatial distributions of resourcesand environments on populations over time.Nonetheless, the collection ofideas and methods presented, and the overall vision of a social science inwhich inter-individual heterogeneities and choices are accounted for bydiscrete transitions, makes this monograph exciting and valuable.

Note: Readers who enjoy this book may also want to read T.C. Schelling'sMicromotives and Macrobehavior.Schelling's book is much less technical,but follows some of the same big ideas and applies them to many homely,compelling examples. ... Read more

Book Description

Hardbound. This is the third and last volume of the Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications.Since the publication of multi-Volume 1 a decade ago, game theory has continued to develop at a furious pace, and today it is the dominant tool in economic theory.The three volumes together cover the fundamental theoretical aspects, a wide range of applications to economics, several chapters on applications to political science and individual chapters on applications to disciplines as diverse as evolutionary biology, computer science, law, psychology and ethics.The authors are the most eminent practitioners in the field, including three Nobel Prize winners.The topics covered in the present volume include strategic ("Nash") equilibrium; incomplete information; two-person non-zero-sum games; noncooperative games with a continuum of players; stochastic games; industrial organization; bargaining, inspection; economic history; the Shapley va ... Read more

Book Description

This book will interest research statisticians in agriculture, medicine, economics, and psychology, as well as the many consulting statisticians who want an up-to-date expository account of this important topic. This edition of this successful book has been completely updated to take into account the many recent developments and features new chapters on models for continuous non-normal data, design issues, and missing data and dropouts. ... Read more

Book Description

This major new textbook is intended for students taking introductory courses in probability theory and statistical inference. The primary objective of this book is to establish the framework for the empirical modeling of observational (nonexperimental) data. The text is extremely student friendly, with pathways designed for semester usage, and although aimed primarily at students at second-year undergraduate level and above studying econometrics and economics, Probability Theory and Statistical Inference will also be useful for students in other disciplines that make extensive use of observational data, including finance, biology, sociology and psychology. ... Read more

Reviews (3)

the best foundation in stats imaginable
This book is absolutely remarkable.

It presents the material traditionally taught in the second-year statistics (but actually goes well beyond, e.g. stochastic processes) and will be of interest to all people interested to (re-)learn statistics well, either undergraduates, or advanced students of any level. Professors should also read it maybe use it in class. Students will thank them.

The author took more than 14 years to polish it, and I would bet that scholars of pedagogy will put this book as an example of the highest possible level of their discipline. I would also bet that this book will have a long and brilliant career in statistical education. On gets the feeling that the author gave the same care and energy to the elaboration of this book as people commonly give to research.

The author is also a man with a mission. In his preface, one can read with pleasure and disbelief a passionate attack on the dumbing-down of undergraduate education in Europe and America. Having taught undergrads in commerce with the "predigested pap" he is talking about, I can really relate to the frustration of the author. There is no dilution of material or dumbing down here: all the ugly details are given, which makes that book not only a pedagogical tool but also a great reference.

There is no book on the market that is so polished in both presentation and discussion, that exposes intermediate stats at such an intelligent, comprehensive level, and finally that uses the historical development to project such clarity on the actual state of the science. I would say the closest competitor to this book is the great volume "Intermediate Statistics" by Dale Poirier, which has more econometrics and which might be a bit more comprehensive on the bayesian side, but the main focus of this one is on UNDERSTANDING and SYNTHESIZING. By the way, the focus of this book is statistics, not econometrics, despite the fact that the author has written extensively in econometrics.

I wish I would be an undergrad again and re-learn statistics with this book. Nevertheless, readers of all levels will learn something from it.

Ah, and the price is right. Value for your money!

Spanos -- bigger, better
Like many, I used the 1986 big green Spanos book to learn econometrics. Simply put, this latest follows the course charted by the first book -- it first covers probability theory, and then uses this to motivate the modelling portion of the book. Unlike the 1986 book, which was terse in places, this monograph is much more comprehensive. It isn't so much that new subjects are covered (though some are), but the current treatment far surpasses the 1986 book. More graphs, to aid geometric intution, are included. More text discusses the implications of the mathematics. More useful, in short, for a graduate student trying to learn econometrics. The only book I think is in this class is DeGroot, and that book suffers from little attention paid to econometrics (though it does do the probability material quite well).

Highly, highly recommended. And one other bonus: Spanos discusses in the introduction why he refuses to water things down, and even has a quote from the mathemetician Binmore.

A great book for applied stats and econometrics
I own a number of econometric and statistics texts, but this is easily the most comprehensive and probably the most important stats book that I own. Not only does it cover just about every stat concept one would need for doing applied research, but it teaches the reader how to think logically and clearly about econometrics problems. It teaches the reader how to properly integrate economic theory and statistical information for conducting good research. If you want to learn applied econometrics the proper way, read this book. ... Read more

Book Description

The second edition of An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis is designed to be a general introduction for those who wish to study efficiency and productivity analysis. The book provides an accessible, well-written introduction to the four principal methods involved: econometric estimation of average response models; index numbers, data envelopment analysis (DEA); and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). For each method, a detailed introduction to the basic concepts is presented,  numerical examples are provided, and some of the more important extensions to the basic methods are discussed. Of special interest is the systematic use of detailed empirical applications using real-world data throughout the book. In recent years, there have been a number of excellent advance-level books published on performance measurement. This book, however, is the first systematic survey of performance measurement with the express purpose of introducing the field to a wide audience of students, researchers, and practitioners. Indeed, the 2nd Edition maintains its uniqueness: (1) It is a well-written introduction to the field. (2) It outlines, discusses and compares the four principal methods for efficiency and productivity analysis in a well-motivated presentation. (3) It provides detailed advice on computer programs that can be used to implement these performance measurement methods. The book contains computer instructions and output listings for the SHAZAM, LIMDEP, TFPIP, DEAP and FRONTIER computer programs. More extensive listings of data and computer instruction files are available on the book's website: (www.uq.edu.au/economics/cepa/crob2005). ... Read more

Book Description

This textbook teaches some of the basic econometric methods and the underlying assumptions behind them. It also includes a simple and concise treatment of more advanced topics in time-series, spatial correlation, limited dependent variables and panel data models, as well as specification testing, Gauss-Newton regressions and regression diagnostics. Some of the strengths of this book lie in presenting difficult material in a simple, yet rigorous manner. The exercises contain theoretical problems that should supplement the understanding of the material in each chapter. In addition, the book has a set of empirical illustrations demonstrating some of the basic results learned in each chapter. The empirical exercises are solved using several econometric software packages. ... Read more

Book Description

This edited volume contains a collection of essays that reflect a broad area of economic education inquiry ranging from teaching assessment to the philosophy of the classroom. Written by economics scholars from across the nation, this volume presents recent discoveries in presentation, assessment, and other aspects of economic education at colleges and universities in the U.S. These articles represent but a sample of the growing commentary among academics on the importance of effective teaching and economic education scholarship. ... Read more

Book Description

Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. Terence Mills introduces these various approaches to allow students and researchers to appreciate the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.
... Read more

Reviews (1)

Innovative and fascinating collection
If you want to gain insight into the goals, motivations, and tactics of the antiglobalization social movement, this is the book for you. The editor, who is a professor of international development at American University in Washington, D.C., has selected more than 40 documents (mostly written by activists themselves) that illustrate both the diversity of the movement and its underlying themes. Whether your interest is in indigenous peoples, the environment, the labor movement, fair trade, or development, you will find valuable and illuminating information in this volume. ... Read more

Book Description

"This is a wonderfully refreshing read. You've heard the standard stories--the gee-whiz optimism of the technophiles, the pessimism of the neo-luddites. Coyle offers something completely different. Each chapter offers a novel, often unsettling perspective about the future. For sure she will turn out to be wrong about some things--but no matter. This is one of those rare books that force your thoughts out of their usual grooves." -- Paul Krugman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, author of Pop Internationalism and The Age of Diminished Expectations

The Weightless World is the first book to map an economic world that has been turned upside down by digital technology and global business. How will our careers, businesses, and governments change in a world where bytes are the only currency and where the goods that shape our lives--global financial transactions, computer code, and cyberspace commerce--literally have no weight? Addressing such problems as economic inequity and unemployment, Diane Coyle calls on individuals and governments to develop a new politics of weightlessness so that the economic benefits can be shared fairly. She proposes the creation of a "radical center" as the way to a new era of human creativity and economic prosperity. ... Read more

Reviews (2)

A Good Read!
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan originated using "weightless" to describe computer-powered information technology. Diane Coyle employs his metaphor to explain that the European world is afflicted with unemployment and insecurity because of the evolution from industrial output to weightlessness. Her view of the new technology's international economic impact is distinctly European/British. She paints her strategy for managing the digital economy with a colorful but broad brush: better education, international ethical standards, governmental flexibility, liberalism. Her writing features quirky phrases, challenging sentence structure, and a few British spellings. Coyle includes surprising anecdotes and sparkling quotes from diverse sources - a valuable lexicon for further reading. We [...] recommend this book to those with an eclectic, liberal, literate, European view of the difference between the U.S. economic experience and that of the rest of the world. Such a reader will be delighted here.

An interesting read about the future
An interesting read about the future, provocative optimism, and predictive anticipation for the future. Academic researchers will, however, find a missing link---that to theory. But, for the most part, well worth a quick read. The author shows the trees in a world where too many of us care about the trees. ... Read more

Book Description

The standard introductory texts to mathematical statistics leave the Bayesian approach to be taught later in advanced topics courses -- giving students the impression that Bayesian statistics provide but a few techniques appropriate in only special circumstances. Nothing could be further from the truth, argues Dale Poirier, who has developed a course for teaching comparatively both the classical and the Bayesian approaches to econometrics. Poirier's text provides a thoroughly modern, self-contained, comprehensive, and accessible treatment of the probability and statistical foundations of econometrics with special emphasis on the linear regression model.

Written primarily for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who are pursuing research careers in economics, Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics offers a broad perspective, bringing together a great deal of diverse material. Its comparative approach, emphasis on regression and prediction, and numerous exercises and references provide a solid foundation for subsequent courses in econometrics and will prove a valuable resource to many nonspecialists who want to update their quantitative skills.

The introduction closes with an example of a real-world data set -- the Challenger space shuttle disaster -- that motivates much of the text's theoretical discussion. The ten chapters that follow cover basic concepts, special distributions, distributions of functions of random variables, sampling theory, estimation, hypothesis testing, prediction, and the linear regression model. Appendixes contain a review of matrix algebra, computation, and statistical tables. ... Read more

Reviews (5)

At best a supplement text
Like mentioned before, it is a continuous listing of theorems with most proofs "left to the reader". While the concepts might appear "straightforward" to the author, I would say someone without prior knowledge of analysis and a higher undergrad math stat course will be lost from the beginning.

It might be useful as a supplementary text to a book like Casella & Berger "Statistical Inference," but is definately the wrong choice as the primary source of a course.

I also agree that classical statistics does not receive a fair treatment. The focus of this book is to show the superiority of Baysian statistics.

Bought under duress
This is the most incomprehensible booK i have ever seen, read (un)used in my entire lifetime.

Buy this book if you really lIke pain.

Read Hogg & CRaig instead.

The book is probably great if you have already spent a decade learning the stuff from elsewhere and you just want a bOok that compiles a lot of theorems and definitions in one place.

The book is also a great piece of frequeNtist bashing, which according to me belongs elsewhere and not in an "intermediate" statistics book.

BEWARE: the errata in the book is 30 pages long (A4 size pages)AND even the errata has errors..Gasp!

please give us a table of contents
How can you expect us to buy the book without providing a table of contents?!

Please add table of contents...
How can you expect people to buy this book without table of contents?!

A Good Comparison of the Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches
This book takes the reader through the basics of probability theory right in through sampling theory, estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression analysis, and at the same time puts both the Classical and Bayesian approaches side by side, so that the reader can see the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches. This book is an excellent for both advanced undergraduates and graduate students interested in applied empirical research. ... Read more

Book Description

Getting accurate data on less developed countries has created great problems for studying these areas. Yet until recently students of development economics have relied on standard econometrics texts, which assume a Western context. Econometrics and Data Analysis for Developing Countries solves this problem. It will be essential reading for all advanced students of development economics. ... Read more

Book Description

Measuring Social Capital: An Integrated Questionnaire is part of the World Bank Working Paper series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion.The idea of social capital has enjoyed a remarkable rise to prominence in both the theoretical and applied social science literature over the last decade. While lively debate has accompanied that journey, thereby helping to advance our thinking and clarifying areas of agreement and disagreement, much still remains to be done.

One approach that could help bring further advances for both scholars and practitioners is providing a set of empirical tools for measuring social capital. The purpose of this paper is to introduce such a tool with a focus on applications in developing countries. The tool aims to generate quantitative data on various dimensions of social capital as part of a larger household survey (such as the Living Standards Measurement Survey or a household income/expenditure survey). The paper also provides detailed guidance for the use and analysis of the data. In having better empirical information on social capital, the authors aim is to enable greater dialogue between researchers, policy makers, task managers, and poor people themselves, ultimately leading to the design and implementation of more effective poverty reduction strategies. ... Read more

Book Description

Deflation is one of the most feared terms in economics. It immediately conjures visions of abandoned farms and idle factories, streams of unemployed workers standing in breadlines. So when Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan started talking openly in 2003 about his fears of deflation, it sent waves of shock through the business press and the public.

Many feared that the United States was entering a period of prolonged slump after a pronounced boom, much like Japan experienced throughout the 1990s. Others worried that a sustained fall in prices would have a cataclysmic impact on our nation's overhang of consumer debt. Yet another camp blamed low-wage manufacturing countries like China and high-volume retailers like Wal-Mart for becoming the engines of relentless deflation.

In this important new book, Chris Farrell explains that deflation need not presage a collapse. In the process he gives a new way of looking at our economic and our financial futures. More than an introduction to the subject, Farrell points out that deflation has always been a fundamental aspect of the business cycle. For much of the 20th century, deflation had vanished from the economic scene, but its return is no cause for panic. Instead, properly understood, deflation presents opportunities and pitfalls in equal measure for businesses, corporations, the government, and our national economy.

Reviews (4)

Not all lowering of prices is deflation
If you look in bookstores at any give time you will find a shelf of books predicting a bright future with some a really strangely bright future. You will also find another shelf explaining to you why things are bad and will only get worse. Readers of a certain disposition will find the books appropriate to their sense of the future and find confirmation.

Deflation is a serious topic, but this is really not a serious book. The book makes the case that our new economic paradigm is, this time, really different because of the way prices fall because of technological efficiencies. Mr. Farrell links this kind of price decline with the kind of general deflation that follows and economic contraction and huge missteps of a central bank. The problem is these are not the same kinds of things and do not have the same kinds of effects. This incorrect mixture of topics under the same noun adds to confusion and foggy thinking.

To the person caught up in any kind of economic dislocation the state of the general economy is irrelevant, they are suffering in a depression. The problem is this kind of book lumps different kinds of things together to create a sense of alarm and concern.

Falling prices are a normal part of the business process as products and industries mature. They are a good thing for consumers of those goods and services and help efficiencies. They also spur development of new products and services that have higher prices and margins. In a general contraction and (real) deflation, everyone suffers because borrowers must repay debts with what amounts to devalued currency.

For example, we saw this in the housing market in the United Kingdom in the nineties when the collapse of the currency left people having mortgages on their houses that were higher than the market value of their homes. People just walked away from their homes. This kind of misery is not the same thing as accounting people losing their jobs because software now does what they used to do.

I like Mr. Farrell's urging of more free trade, and of reforming the retirement programs in this country to a single program attached to the individual rather the employer.

Brilliant exposition of an alternative view of our economy
Is the United States currently in a deflationary period? If not then are we headed for one? Why have such major economic figures as Alan Greenspan started hinting that deflation is a possibility? Is deflation always a negative event bringing on recession is its wake? Author and financial columnist Chris Farrell answers all these questions and more in his fascinating book "Deflation: What Happens When Prices Fall". Mr. Farrell makes a strong case for deflationary pressures coming about from globalization of many industries as well as the strong pressure from retailers forcing suppliers to continually lower their prices. While deflation is a normal part of the economic cycle most of the 20th century has seen pronounced inflation. What does it all mean now that there are legitimate concerns about deflation? Mr. Farrell makes a convincing case that deflation does not necessarily equate with depression. In fact deflation can co-exist with a strong economy! This is definitely not the economics that I learned in college but is a well presented argument for a different view of where we are headed. Brilliantly done, "Deflation: What Happens When Prices Fall" is highly recommended for anyone interested in economic theory and may represent a more accurate view of deflation than the popular Keynesian theory of economics.

The "risks" of deflation presented accurately and in context
I follow the financial news fairly regularly, reading the news headlines and many of the columns on the Internet at least three times daily. A few months ago, the main topic of some of the economic stories was one that I had never seen in a contemporary financial column, the possibility of the U. S. economy entering into a deflationary state. A deflationary condition is when prices start to fall, and people begin to delay non-essential purchases in the belief that they will continue to fall, which can lead to an economic collapse. In general, it was considered a significant threat, and apparently the high officers of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) were preparing contingency plans if it were to happen. The possibility, consequences and potential benefits of a deflationary phase in the U. S. economy are the primary topics of this book.
Outside of major wars and their consequences, there were two major economic cataclysms in the U. S. economy in the twentieth century. The first was the Great Depression of the thirties, which was a major deflationary period. The second was the uncontrolled inflation of the seventies, where price increases were relentless, a major success was proclaimed when the inflation rate dropped to ten percent or less. These two long-term economic problems form the major historical basis for the basic premise that monetary policy is the preeminent driver of major economic trends. Milton Friedman, long the primary champion of monetary policy, is mentioned many times. Farrell finds many historical justifications to blame the severity of the two events on the Fed. While it cannot be refuted that the Fed made many major mistakes in both situations, the political leadership also must bear a great deal of responsibility. That point is made, but not quite as forcibly as it should have been.
The primary event that is driving the current concern over the potential for deflation is the performance of the Japanese economy in the last decade. It has been in a recurring deflationary condition throughout that time, performing sluggishly and with no end in sight. However, Farrell uses this as a point of demonstration as to how monetary policy can be used in a counterproductive manner. He argues that the Fed is smart enough to avoid those mistakes and will act quickly and forcibly to prevent a dangerous deflationary trend in the U. S.
Another major point is whether deflation is in fact a trend to be feared or welcomed. As Farrell so excellently points out, there have been many deflationary periods in the American economy, and while we remain focused on the 1930's, the others were often periods of economic expansion and growth. They were due to the development of new technologies, which led to previously unheard of improvements in efficiency. Dramatic improvements such as the telegraph, telephone, railroad and medical advancements all changed society and dramatically lowered the costs of gods and the efficiency of living. His point is that if the costs of the goods are declining due to increased efficiency, then it is a very good thing. Companies being forced to reduce their production costs in order to compete is always a boon to the overall economy.
The last chapter contains a series of recommended policy changes. The first is that global free trade should be expanded to include all nations. Farrell argues that since the poorer nations largely rely on agriculture, the U. S. should stop subsidizing agriculture, which would allow the products from the poorer nations to compete in the global markets. A valid point, but of course politically impossible. One point that I found of particular interest was the cost benefits of sophisticated medical care. He argues that nearly every successful medical treatment returns more than it costs. The exact figures are that from 1960 to 1997 it cost approximately $13,000 in medical spending and pharmaceutical research to gain one year of additional life and that the economic return on this additional year of life was $150,000. If true, it would be the most powerful argument for universal health care that could be made. An additional argument made in this section is that the current system of employer-managed health care programs is inefficient and should be refined into a single program.
Several pages are devoted to significant human capital investment, which means enormous investments in education and training. Farrell argues very forcefully that this is essential and historically justified. As Americans began moving from a rural, agrarian society to an urban, industrial one, the massive investments made in education were necessary for the transformation to be complete. He argues that sufficient investment capitol would be available if the agricultural subsidies were eliminated.
Farrell makes powerful arguments in favor of his basic premise that deflation is an expected consequence of dramatic increases in economic efficiencies due to the opening of global trade and technological advancements. While I sometimes had minor disagreements with his points of emphasis and understand that his proposals for solution are largely politically impossible, I found the book a sound analysis of what is now being raised as a potential economic danger.

Deflation by Farrell
The author explains what happens when prices fall. Falling prices can be an opportunity for persons with cash and buying power. The capitalist system inevitably evolves through cycles of inflation and deflation. The author argues that deflation is a condition precedent to the capitalist system retaining its
rigor. He provides strategies to cope with worker insecurity.
Ultimately, he explains that human capital generates earnings through training, education and new technologies. The author points to the 1948-1973 base period where the United States had
very good overall growth in employment and the economy.
The opportunities in a deflationary period allow us to purchase
cheaply. The threats are that the deflationary tendencies in the
economy impact labor adversely. ... Read more

Book Description

The application of time series techniques in economics has become increasingly important, both for forecasting purposes and in the empirical analysis of time series in general. This book brings together recent research at the frontiers of the subject and analyzes the areas of time series analysis of most importance to applied economics.The author discusses three basic areas of time series analysis: univariate models, multivariate models, and nonlinear models.Particular emphasis is placed on applications of the theory to important areas of applied economics and on the computer software and programs needed to implement the techniques. It is an up-to-date text, extending the basic techniques of analysis to cover the development of methods that can be used to analyze a wide range of economic problems. ... Read more

Reviews (1)

Excellent foundation for empirical work.
This book is suitable for Econometricians looking for a book without too much theoretical work. Sufficient explaination given for empirical work. Easy to read. ... Read more

Book Description