| UK | Germany |
| Home - Books - Business & Investing - Investing - Introduction | Help | |
| 21-40 of 200 Back 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next 20 |
click price to see details click image to enlarge click link to go to the store
| 21. Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression by Robert R. Prechter Jr. | |
![]() | list price: $27.95
our price: $27.95 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0470849827 Catlog: Book (2002-06-21) Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Sales Rank: 31730 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Amazon.com Reviews (89)
This book is really two books within one set of covers -- the publisher even uses two different kinds of paper stock to differentiate the "books." In "book one," Prechter draws from history and shows charts & graphs (some going back 300 years) of what has happened in situations similar to what we are going through today. Known for his Elliott Wave analysis, Prechter does not stop there. He uses all of the tools of technical and fundamental analysis to methodically build his argument that the current market downturn is very far from over. Like a lawyer presenting a case, he covers everything from esoteric considerations such as rising federal debt as a percentage of GDP, to public psychology, to the ultimate impotence of the Fed. At the end of the section, the reader is left with the choice to either believe that history repeats, or that "this time it's different." "Book two" presents practical advice of what to do now. He offers suggestions of what to do if you're in the stock market and your account is way down. He covers junk bonds, real estate, treasuries, pension plans, 401Ks, insurance, gold, and the whole spectrum of investments. To help the reader, he lists the safest banks in the country. He has eye-opening advice for people who are relying on government protection such as FDIC bank account insurance. Finally, he shows how to actually profit in the environment we are currently in. Some disparage Prechter for his past fault of getting out of the market too early. It's a valid criticism; nevertheless, every one of his predictions are currently playing out. How do you argue with someone who is right? Ultimately, the reader is left with a choice. One is to follow the financial mass media, economists and brokerage analysts who say recovery is just around the corner. The other is to look at history and Prechter's prediction, along with his track record of being only one of a handful of people to predict the magnitude of the market crash. Who are you going to believe?
Prechter's understanding of technical, contrary, and economic analysis is exceptional. According to conventional wisdom of investors, traders, and the so-called "experts" on Wall Street, external events and fundamentals cause psychology and social mood to change. Flying in the face of this conventional wisdom, Prechter maintains that in reality the opposite is true; psychology and social mood cause underlying economic and market conditions to change. Once you view events from this perspective you can successfully anticipate conditions and properly adjust your investment techniques for maximum wealth appreciation and preservation. Prechter identifies the many ways for readers to profit off the continuing stock market decline. Whether you trade stocks, bonds, commodities, or options you will find valuable advice in this book. It will have a permanent spot on my own bookshelf next to Prechter's earlier classic "At the Crest Of the Tidal Wave". Prechter's advice will surely be used in my own trading.
At one time (I think the early 80's), I've read or heard he did well with his market predictions. But, not sure, didn't he get the 87 crash wrong in the sense that the market quickly recovered and that would've been the opportunity of a lifetime to buy? And, hasn't he's been bearish though another great opportunity, the incredible bull market of the latter 90's? Finally, here we are in mid 2004, with Gold holding _above_ $400, the stock averages within spitting distance of their old highs, and the fed likely to raise interest rates because of the economic recovery (along with job creation) to keep inflation in check. It just seems like Elliot Wave strings you along... there're always unlikely alternate counts and unlikely alternates to those that make you question why the unlikely of the unlikely seem to happen so often. I'm not trying to bash; would actually prefer to be more positive; but am simply expressing an honest dissapointment.
The book is divided into two parts. The first part attempts to persuade the reader that the US economy is headed for a deflationary depression. The second part recommends actions to prepare and prosper during a deflationary depression. This specific edition of the book also includes an update written in 2004. (The original book was written in 2002.) First of all, with any investment book review, it is important to understand the reviewer's biases. My belief is that the US will enter some type of unwinding, either through an extended securities bear market, or more severe overall imbalance. I maintain a minor belief in technical analysis but do not rely on it. Elliot Wave analysis is, at its core, a technical analysis methodology. Elliot Wave claims to find a recurring pattern in short term, long term, and ultra-long term market price charts. What is gravely missing, however, is some sort of explanation or justification for its supposed utility. Many schools of technical analysis, for example, give plausible explanations for why "resistance levels" exist based on market or individual investor psychology. This is completely missing from Mr. Prechter's writings and thus he fails to distinguish himself from a long line of failed data miners. This missing and crucial "why" is the most glaring hole in this book. While other writers attempt to prove a thesis through a chain of reasoning and supporting data, Mr. Prechter skips steps in his thesis. The holes are not glaring to a casual reader, but a person with some breadth in economic knowledge will easily spot large omissions. For example, even if you accept the disjointed framework of technical and fundamental analysis, the fundamental arguments for deflation are seriously flawed. Note, also, that Elliot Wave principles claim only to predict the performance of securities. Thus, Elliot Wave is agnostic with respect to the inflation vs. deflation debate. Therefore, Mr. Prechter's arguments for deflation are purely fundamental in basis. This is where his loose foundation really comes apart. His understanding of the Federal Reserve functions are contrary to those written by many other writers and scholars, including many who share similar contempt for the Federal Reserve. This is rather crucial, because the specific authorities and obligations of the Federal Reserve can determine whether a presumed economic failure results in deflation or hyper-inflation. Convincing cases for deflation have been made, but Mr. Prechter does not offer one. Where many market bears thoroughly argue and carefully build their conclusions, Mr. Prechter glosses over far too many details to arrive at this deflation conclusion and blatantly ignores examples that contradict his thesis. He uses the US depression of 1929 as his sole argument that monetary policy is powerless to prevent deflation, forgetting that Federal Reserve authority was much lesser back then. Meanwhile, he ignores the numerous historical hyper-inflation examples caused by monetarism, such as 1970's US "stagflation", the recent collapses of Argentinean and Mexican currency, or even popular historical cases such as the South Sea Company bubble and post World War One Germany. Mr. Prechter is either grossly ignorant or deliberately avoiding such cases. Neither speaks well for him. Most importantly, he sets up his own case of why he is wrong. He admits that there is a small probability that he could be wrong and that hyper-inflation will set in. Mr. Prechter says that this would be indicated by a declining US dollar and a price of gold reaching above $400 per ounce. Both are now clearly true, yet in his 50-page 2004 appendix, he conveniently ignores this fact and chooses to emphasize only his market index prognostication. The rest of his fundamental case rests on material already beaten to death by other bearish scholars. He writes about historical price to earnings ratios, the contrarian indications given by popular finance magazines and long-to-short ratios, for example. His fundamental arguments are not thoroughly presented and escape ridicule only because others have argued the case before him. He adds nothing new here. Since the first part of the book is so poorly supported, the second part regarding how to survive a depression is irrelevant. His recommendations generally apply only to deflation and would not work in a hyper-inflation or zero-inflation economy. When one supports an already argued case, the burden of proof is small. However, if one dares to present a different case as Mr. Prechter has done, one needs to cover all well known and reasonably applicable cases at a minimum. Mr. Prechter has failed in this regard and by his own criteria. ... Read more | |
| 22. The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How to Build Your Portfolio to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk by William J. Bernstein | |
![]() | list price: $29.95
our price: $19.77 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0071362363 Catlog: Book (2000-09-22) Publisher: McGraw-Hill Sales Rank: 3841 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description William Bernstein is one of today’s most unlikely financial heroes. A practicing neurologist, he used his self-taught investment knowledge and research to build a popular investor’s website. Now, in the plain-spoken The Intelligent Asset Allocator, he shows independent investors how to build a diversified portfolio—without the help of a financial advisor. A breath of fresh air for investors tired of overly technical investment tomes, this book will help investors: Reviews (26)
Dr. B effectively presents additional arguments for value investing and tax-efficient investing. The last chapter also contains a very useful reading list, providing a synopsis of books by Malkeil, Bogle, Haugen, and a host of web sites which can provide valuable data and reading. Investors should not overlook Dr. Bernstein's own web site, which is frequently updated with his newsletters. The very beginning investor should perhaps first explore Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds, and then explore texts by Burton Malkeil, Larry Swedroe, and perhaps a few others. This text can then be dived into (patiently). Bruce Temkin's recent text, The Terrible Truth About Investing, should then follow, lest the individual investor believe that he or she knows it all. I highly recommend this text as an addition to every serious individual investor's library, and to investment advisors desiring to explore the fundamentals of Modern Portfolio Theory.
Although the book was generally excellent, some of the author's points are inconsistent. For example, the author talks at length about how future returns are unpredictable but later states that stock prices are overvalued and due for a downturn. Additionally, the author stresses how periodic portfolio rebalancing is important in asset allocation but then says that there is a strong argument for never rebalancing due to tax consequences. However, these inconsistencies are insignificant to the work as a whole and I strongly recommend this book.
Bernstein is a gifted writer and a powerful, logical presenter of what should be an easily managable financial strategy. It should be the only book you need on investing.
| |
| 23. CFP (Certified Financial Planning) Exam Fast Track by Jeffrey H.Rattiner, Jeffrey H. Rattiner | |
![]() | list price: $59.95
our price: $37.77 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0471272655 Catlog: Book (2003-07-18) Publisher: Wiley Sales Rank: 30329 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description This quick study guide for candidates preparing to take the CFP® Certification Examination covers the bare-bones essentials needed to pass this challenging exam in a logical and easy-to-absorb manner. Covering some of the most important disciplines of financial planning insurance, employee benefit, investment, income tax, retirement, estate, and general planning this text provides a no-nonsense approach to studying that includes: For students who have been through the traditional CFP® educational programs and want a book that brings it all together, Rattiners Review for the CFP® Certification Examination, Fast Track Study Guide keeps students organized, on track, and focused on what they need to succeed. In addition to its value as a quick-reference guide to supplement all CFP® texts and self-study materials, the Guide also serves as an important one-stop resource for financial services professionals who want information in a hurry. "Jeff Rattiner has developed yet another valuable addition to our profession. Rattiners Review for the CFP® Certification Examination develops an excellent, comprehensive framework to prepare a student for the CFP® exam. The breadth and thoroughness of this book encompassing all 101 topics necessary for mastery will help students excel in their test preparations. " "I commend Jeff for providing relevant information in a clear and understandable manner for anyone in or thinking of entering the financial planning field. The book brings the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards education required 101 topics into focus. I definitely recommend the book to anyone preparing for the national certified financial planner examination." Reviews (2)
| |
| 24. Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp | |
![]() | list price: $29.95
our price: $19.77 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0070647623 Catlog: Book (1998-12-01) Publisher: McGraw-Hill Sales Rank: 7304 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description Your own strengths, style, and personality­­and the steps found in this book­­can revitalize your trading program! "Van's book gets directly to the heart of what it takes to be a successful trader. It's the best book I've read on trading successfully; not fluff or hype like so many others."­­Tom Basso, President, Trendstat Capital Management, Inc. Reviews (86)
I should know. I'm a professional, full time trader and I'm constantly being asked,"John, how can I daytrade and make a living?" After reading Van Tharp's new book, I finally have a great answer to that question. Sometimes I think I've read almost everything published on trading. Some are so basic they insult the reader, in their naïveté. Others are very advanced technical treatises. Van Tharp's book is refreshing. I found it a great read...a blend of the foundational concepts such as "fundamental analysis" with very advanced concepts including "expectancy"...a topic that very few traders understand at all. Along the way, Tharp gets the reader involved by asking plenty of self-analysis type questions. Questions designed to immerse the reader in the complete process of trading. From understanding biases and success roadblocks...to designing and implementing a winning system...it's all here. Whether you're brand new to trading, or a seasoned pro...there's plenty of material to dig into here. A lot of meat...very little fluff. I rate it five starts. Get it. Read it. Understand it. And best of SKILL in your trading!
Or, are we talking about a DIFFERENT KIND of success???!! Success in selling the idea that he "knows" all there is know about making money at the markets? Terribly cinic in my opinion. People need to beleive in anything. Beleive Van. You are contributing to his bank account. Not one SINGLE piece of evidence is available about his success (at trading the markets). The other success is well known. Oh Aristotle, you were right! Not all those who attend the games (the olympics) are players. Some are cynics as you say and so many spectators (consumers) for both the cynics and the players. A player! So, I bought it, read it and returned it. But go ahead.
| |
| 25. How To Make Money In Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad, 3rd Edition by William J. O'Neil | |
![]() | list price: $12.95
our price: $9.71 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0071373616 Catlog: Book (2002-05-23) Publisher: McGraw-Hill Sales Rank: 1345 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description THE BUSINESSWEEK, USA TODAY, AND WALL STREET JOURNAL BUSINESS BESTSELLER! The bestselling guide to buying stocks, from the founder of Investor's Business Daily­­now completely revised and updated When it was first published, How to Make Money in Stocks hit the investing world like a jolt, providing readers with the first in-depth explanation of William J. O'Neil's innovative CAN SLIM investing method. Five years later, O'Neil, founder for the industry icon Investor's Business Daily, revised his classic text and provided readers with a newer glimpse on how the average investor can make money in the equities market. This third edition of How to Make Money in Stocks has been revised and updated with new chapters designed to help investors increase their performance. New discussions include: Like his international bestselling 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success, which stayed on international business bestseller lists for close to 6 months in 2000, How to Make Money in Stocks is the best reference for the individual investor in how to stay afloat and ahead in the rocky and volatile equities markets of the 21st century. Reviews (158)
What's CANSLIM you ask? CANSLIM is a method of picking stocks developed by William J. O'Neil. He's taken his years of investing knowledge and developed a system of picking stocks that has repeatedly proven to be successful. The book takes you through each part of this method from quarterly earnings through annual earnings, when to buy, trading volume, stock leaders, institutional support and market direction. He also teaches you when to sell a stock even in a bad market. He'll show you how to cut your losses and why it's important to sell at the right time to prevent major losses on a stock. Finally he takes you through some of the best stocks in recent history and shows you how to read the signs that they put out. This will teach you how to recognize today's stocks that are ready to burst from the pack and soar to new highs. This book pushes WJ O'Neil's newspaper, Investor Business Daily, as it has much of the information needed to use the CANSLIM method. But even without his paper this book teaches you the methods needed to make money in the stock market. All in all I think this is a great book for investors.
I, too, had some questions about "pivot points," etc. that seem sparsely described. This is because you are supposed to look at the charts. If this isn't enough, look at more charts (the book has plenty). "Pivot points" and "accumulation" are not exact concepts, so one has to practice looking at the chart and acquire an understanding of these concepts. "How to Make Money in Stocks" is one of those rare books that relies on the graphical presentation of data as much as copy writing to communicate its sometimes fuzzy ideas. This book is superb at describing the CANSLIM method on analysis, which can be done these days with free internet sources. An excellent description for novices of investing research. My advice would be to pick up this book, read it, buy a copy of IBD, and keep track of ten or so stocks for 60 days or so. If the market goes up and these stocks don't, look for a better method. If you need more comforting words in the newspaper to guide your money decisions, drop this stuff and hire some investment professional.
| |
| 26. The Management of Investment Decisions by DonaldTrone, WilliaimAllbright, PhilipTaylor | |
![]() | list price: $67.00
our price: $42.21 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0786303921 Catlog: Book (1995-09-01) Publisher: McGraw-Hill Sales Rank: 21251 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description Reviews (2)
| |
| 27. The Four Pillars of Investing : Lessons for Building a WinningPortfolio by William J. Bernstein | |
![]() | list price: $29.95
our price: $19.56 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0071385290 Catlog: Book (2002-04-26) Publisher: McGraw-Hill Sales Rank: 2583 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description Sound, sensible advice from a hero to frustrated investors everywhere William Bernstein's The Four Pillars of Investing gives investors the tools they need to construct top-returning portfolios­­without the help of a financial adviser. In a relaxed, nonthreatening style, Dr. Bernstein provides a distinctive blend of market history, investing theory, and behavioral finance, one designed to help every investor become more self-sufficient and make betterinformed investment decisions. The 4 Pillars of Investing explains how any investor can build a solid foundation for investing by focusing on four essential lessons, each building upon the other. Containing all of the tools needed to achieve investing success, without the help of a financial advisor, it presents: Reviews (42)
The two chapters on asset allocation, the ~one~ thing the investor is able to control, and the one thing which directly rewards the investor, doesn't explain the "frontiers" and why four assets or ten is best for the individual investor. The efficient frontier in layman's terms would have been especially helpful. On the other hand, dauntless pages were dedicated to diminishing returns (DR), which were clearly adumbrated for their importance. Then Bernstein concentrates on Vanguard investment opportunities, with only brief reference to ETFs (exchange traded funds). Vanguard is to be commended for bringing index-investing to the fore, but Vanguard's steep minimums and stiff penalties are impediments for the smaller investor and are downright subversive to the investor who does not believe in a "buy-and-hold" theory of investing. Many ETFs are more asset specific and can be had without excess cost through a discount broker. I wish Bernstein had discussed the merits and demerits of "buy-and-hold" as opposed to, say the Fabian and other methods of entering and exiting the market on certain MDAs (moving daily averages). I found Bernstein's lack of mention of mid cap stocks throughout the book puzzling. None of the hypothetical asset allocations in the book have any room for mid caps, which can enhance performance and reduce risk. For Bernstein, there are only large and small market capitalization - no middle capitalization. Also, foreign funds and ETFs of foreign assets (such as EFA for MSCI-EAFE index) are considered important, but get only passing and ambiguous comments. The graphs and tables are helpful for the most part, but many are out of date, and some lacked a marked differentiation in plotting more than one overlap, which made for challenging deciphering. The writing is effusive and accessible, making it a good introductory book and a refresher for bulls and bears alike. Overall, I found the book to be a tad bit too garrulous, but easy to read and informative . My cavils and criticisms aside, this book is truly one of the best books on investment in print.
This is a point which has been demonstrated again and again in the financial literature. See especially 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street' by Burton Malkiel and both books by John Bogle. Although some managers, historically, outperform, they are not the same managers who outperform in the future. This has been demonstrated again and again with different sample periods and different data: it is the dirty secret of the investment management industry, that the rational investor would choose the low fee option. In the institutional pension fund (defined benefit) market, where fees are *much* lower and sophisticated consultants advise the trustees, you would expect it to be much easier to select good active managers. The reality, which Bernstein addresses, is that institutional pension funds make *more* use of passive or indexed funds, than individuals do. Bernstein's book brilliantly summarises the main points about investing for the individual investor today: 1. stock returns are likely to be a lot lower in the future, than in the past But the book is much subtler and deeper than this. It looks at how we get 'valuation bubbles' like the recent dot-com/ telecoms boom, and how humans consistently make investment mistakes for deep seated psychological reasons. It helps you to look sceptically at a financial 'advice' industry, that is really there to make a living off your hard earned savings. Bernstein's bias is towards value investing and he correctly points out that it is possible to pursue this investing style using 'value tilted' index funds, with low fees. Although value as a style has massively outperformed growth over the last 3 years (to the tune of 40% aggregate), it is still a point worth taking in. When stocks in general are expensive (as they still are on any quantitative basis), cheap stocks can still be the way to go. Reading this book, along with David Chilton's 'The Wealthy Barber' and the books by Burton Malkiel and John Bogle, is likely to be among the most rewarding things you can do for your personal wealth, long term.
Bernstein identifies four pillars for building a portfolio: theory, history, psychology and the business. The pillar of theory is about the conceptual framework of investing. This potentially could have been a very difficult section, but Bernstein makes it very readable even though he introduces a couple of ideas he claims most brokers are not familiar with. The second pillar of history is about how markets in the West have behaved in the past. Bernstein argues this history is important to remember so that investors develop reasonable expectations for what their investment will do and recognize both the warning signs of an overheated market or the symptoms of a depressed one. The third pillar of psychology helps the reader to combat the usual mistakes beginning investors make: excessive trading, following hot stocks and funds, high fees, overconfidence, etc. Bernstein says the investor must learn to emotionally detach him- or herself from the investing crowd while still keeping a healthy respect for all he doesn't know. The fourth pillar of business emphasizes that those who provide investment services for you are often your worst enemy to getting a decent return on your money This is a great book, but not a perfect one. I wish Bernstein had explained some things more fully - especially in the first section of the book on theory. But what he does explain, he explains well enough to catapult the reader to the next level of understanding, should he or she choose to go there. Some critics of the book might argue that Bernstein says nothing new. This is true. But the effectiveness of the book is in the way it is presented and how it is written. I recently read John Bogle's book "Common Sense on Mutual Funds". It is a superb book, and has many (but not all) of the same points as "The Four Pillars of Investing". But it fails to engage the reader as well as this book does. ... Read more | |
| 28. The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It : Make a Fortune by Investing in Gold and Other Hard Assets by JAMES TURK, JOHN RUBINO | |
![]() | list price: $24.95
our price: $16.47 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0385512236 Catlog: Book (2004-12-28) Publisher: Currency Sales Rank: 10463 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
| 29. A Random Walk Down Wall Street: Completely Revised and Updated Eighth Edition by Burton G. Malkiel | |
![]() | list price: $17.95
our price: $12.21 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0393325350 Catlog: Book (2004-01) Publisher: W.W. Norton & Company Sales Rank: 1587 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description Using the dot-com crash as an object lesson in how not to manage your portfolio, here is the best-selling, gimmick-free, irreverent, vastly informative guide to navigating the turbulence of the market and managing investments with confidence. A Random Walk Down Wall Street is well established as a staple of the business shelf, the first book any investor should read before taking the plunge and starting a portfolio. With its life-cycle guide to investing, it matches the needs of investors at any age bracket. Burton G. Malkiel shows how to analyze the potential returns, not only for stocks and bonds but also for the full range of investment opportunities, from money market accounts and real estate investment trusts to insurance, home ownership, and tangible assets like gold and collectibles. Whether you want to verse yourself in the ways of the market before talking to a broker or follow Malkiel's easy steps to managing your own portfolio, this book remains the best investing guide money can buy. Reviews (23)
Yet, those who trade using technical analysis scoff at books such at this, claiming their systems consistently beat the averages. The author points to the fact that most managers of mutual funds, pensions etc. fail to perform better than index funds and Malkiel recommends that public investors place their investment money into broad based index funds. The S&P 500 Index fund is recommended, as it is unrealistic to expect fund managers to perform better. This classic has been around for 30 years and this revised edition is worth your time, especially if you have never read an earlier edition. Just be aware that many technical traders consider this to be a work of fiction.
While I support the view that fundamental and technical analysis generally offer very little in the way of helpful advice, I believe that Malkiel's view that no investment strategy can beat the market over the long run is, to put it simply, irrefutable. Therein, however, lies its problem. Suppose, for instance, that I have this remarkable strategy of buying and selling stocks which has earned me consistant long run returns on the market. Of course, if I tell anyone the specifics of this strategy and how wonderful it works, they will want to start using it for themselves. But then my strategy will stop working; the more people use a particular strategy, the harder it is for that strategy to continue work. Malkiel himself notes that if everyone uses the strategy of buying stocks on January 1st and selling them five days later, a simple strategy of buying on December 31st and selling on the 4th will generate consistant, long run returns. But then, if everyone adopts the new strategy, the long run returns vanish! The key to a successful investing strategy, then, is to keep it secret. Since any strategy published in Malkiel's "Random Walk" is likely to be read and studied by millions, the moment he publishes something that would refute the efficient market hypothesis, the hypothesis is again reconfirmed. Clever devil, that Malkiel. Other than that, my only problem with Malkiel's book is that he refers to countless articles and studies published in academia, but he leaves the inquiring reader clueless as to where to look for them. A simple "references" section would solve this problem (although it would easily provide further reason to justify publishing a new edition, thus earning Malkiel even more money).
First, the book explains what is financial risk, and points out that everything is risky, even insured savings accounts since inflation can destroy the value of cash. Malkiel describes just how risky various investments are, and how the risk is one investment is often offset by the risk in another. Second, Malkiel describes a variety of specific investments (e.g. no load index funds, your own home, individual stocks) and suggests how individual investors should mix them, depending on their personal circumstances. For instance, an ambitious young woman in her twenties can consider aggressive high-risk high-growth funds. If they boom, she's rich, if they bust she's young enough to recover her losses through income. This would not be true of a middle-aged couple about to pay for their children's college years. "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" should be in every family's library.
In 1999, the Nasdaq market leaders traded for well over 100x p/e. It defied logic and a few shorts would have been "efficient." The market continued to rocket upwards until March, 2000 and shorts would have been death to you in 1999. A share of some company breaks out of a trading range and moves up 5% in value in 10 minutes on no news or fundamental change. This type of thing still happens. How can a market be truly efficient when there is ingrained stupidity such high levels? Consider the handicap mutual funds are strapped with: They must be at least 70% invested on the long side at all times regardless of how overvalued the equity markets are. That means mutual funds will be sloshing money in defensive industry stocks such as casinos and bottlers during a market melt down. Conversely, it means "value" stocks will be frequently trading for less than book value during boom times. In an efficient system, you have real checks and balances insuring stock prices on an equal footing with intrinsic value and not cosmetic tomfoolery. How does investor psychology come into play? Human psychology is not efficient but it is sometimes predictable. I'm betting that whatever look Brittney wears in her next video and whatever is worn on the runways of Milan will be adopted within a few months by the hordes. The darts won't tell you that. In 1983, a Members Only jacket and a pair of designer parachute pants would set you back maybe $150. Today, you can only find these items in a thrift store for considerably less. The lesson is that in the short term, there are all kinds of irrational trends. Over a long time span, a regression to the mean will filter out lots of follies only to be replaced by some other ridiculous fads and a few long lasting good ideas. Everybody knows that garish haute couture has a higher profit margin than the common t- shirt. I'd rather be hawking the haute couture. There is marked inefficiency in the markets over longer time frames also. Check out the valuations on Coke and the consumer staples over the last several years and compare them with historical norms. Many stocks seem to be permanantly overvalued. And what is this fascination with historical valuations? Many investment managers are in awe of the historical valuations as if it were definitive. Frankly, the variables have changed over time and comparisons with history make less sense today. The entire market is based on stupidity, manic emotion, misinformation and knee jerk responses. I could get into wirehouse sales tactics and conflicts of interest but I will spare you. That is not to say that it can be figured out. Oh, and if the market were efficient it would learn from its mistakes. There were bucket shops in 1890, and there are bucket shops today. At the turn of the century, automotive stocks were doubling seemingly overnight only to later crash and burn. Fuel cell stocks were the rage a couple of years ago.
| |
| 30. One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market by Peter Lynch | |
![]() | list price: $14.00
our price: $10.50 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0743200403 Catlog: Book (2000-04-03) Publisher: Simon & Schuster Sales Rank: 1808 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description THE NATIONAL BESTSELLING BOOK THAT EVERY INVESTOR SHOULD OWN Peter Lynch is America's number-one money manager. His mantra: Average investors can become experts in their own field and can pick winning stocks as effectively as Wall Street professionals by doing just a little research. Now, in a new introduction written specifically for this edition of One Up on Wall Street, Lynch gives his take on the incredible rise of Internet stocks, as well as a list of twenty winning companies of high-tech '90s. That many of these winners are low-tech supports his thesis that amateur investors can continue to reap exceptional rewards from mundane, easy-to-understand companies they encounter in their daily lives. Investment opportunities abound for the layperson, Lynch says. By simply observing business developments and taking notice of your immediate world -- from the mall to the workplace -- you can discover potentially successful companies before professional analysts do. This jump on the experts is what produces "tenbaggers," the stocks that appreciate tenfold or more and turn an average stock portfolio into a star performer. The former star manager of Fidelity's multibillion-dollar Magellan Fund, Lynch reveals how he achieved his spectacular record. Writing with John Rothchild, Lynch offers easy-to-follow directions for sorting out the long shots from the no shots by reviewing a company's financial statements and by identifying which numbers really count. He explains how to stalk tenbaggers and lays out the guidelines for investing in cyclical, turnaround, and fast-growing companies. Lynch promises that if you ignore the ups and downs of the market and the endless speculation about interest rates, in the long term (anywhere from five to fifteen years) your portfolio will reward you. This advice has proved to be timeless and has made One Up on Wall Street a number-one bestseller. And now this classic is as valuable in the new millennium as ever. Reviews (102)
At the heart of Lynch's case is that each individual has enough inherent knowledge and experience to be a successful investor. He uses numerous analogies to show investors: 1. The power of common knowledge (take advantage of what you already know) 2. You don't need to be a Wall Street analyst to uncover great investment opportunities 3. You are not disadvantaged vs. large, institutional investors You don't have to accurately predict the stock market to make money in stocks 4. To keep an open mind to new ideas From my years on Wall Street, I found many of his theories and ideas to be completely accurate. Many other books I have read focus on the inherent evils of the possessed financial consultant community. Yes, the industry has its problems. However, $8 stock trades are not the only ingredients in profitable investing. In fact, I don't recall him emphasizing the need for discount trades, a fact over-emphasized in almost every other book I have read (remember, I am no longer in the industry...I don't need to strike a case for broker commissions). Instead, he shows you what information to focus on and how to apply it. Do yourself a favor: Buy this book. Read it twice. It is not outdated...it is timeless. Yea, I know, you already know it all. My advice is to lose the ego and take a refresher course on common sense investing. When you finish, put it on your bookshelf. Do not give it to your kids or neighbors; buy them their own copies. This is a great book!
Within the 300 pages of this book, Lynch outlines a useful rubric against which all stock selections might be measured. His stocks fall into six categories: Slow Growers, Stalwarts, Cyclicals, Fast Growers, Turnarounds and Asset Plays. Screening, buying and selling advice are outlined for each of these six flavors, although nothing revolutionary (eg., Sell a slow grower when the dividend is unattractive.) He delivers a wealth of the basic analytical tools (well, more like rules of thumb) for stock research, explaining price earnings ratios, the import of tax loss carry-forwards, goodwill accounting, inventories, and other basics of P&L statements and Balance Sheets. It's a pocket guide financial course for those who may have slept through Accounting 101. Lynch urges stock pickers to do their homework, and suggests the regimen of a "Two Minute" drill, whereby an investor can recite a brief monologue of reasons for selecting a security: Reasons for selection, what the company needs to do to succeed, and pitfalls that stand in the way. Obviously, this is not a book for the technicians or chartists. Nor even speculators, as Lynch reminds the reader that his "ten-baggers" or "forty-baggers" all come as a result of having held at least three to four years. Quite a bit of the book carries a populist bent. There is plenty of advice to pay more heed to what's happening in the local shopping mall than to investment brokers ("oxymorons"), and to avoid stocks with exotic names or that may have been whispered to be hot. Of course, we've all been aware of this, and we're all wealthy and drinking daiquiris on the beach now, right? In sum, it is worth the investment of the few hours it takes to swallow this information. At worst, it is an entertaining look at some high-fliers the former Magellan manager scored with, but at the very least it serves as reminder that basics need to be followed, and nothing works as well as solid research, good discipline and old fashioned hard work.
I read this book before I got serious about investing myself, it's helped me to be successful (I've "beaten the street" fairly consistently, much of this thanks to Lynch's book) and I've re-read it several times over the years. My biggest problem with this book is the printing; while the quality isn't terrible, it could be a lot better, a lot more readable. This is a book just CRYING to be published again in hardback, with new, larger typesetting. And I don't mean that little miniature abridged hardback version. Considering the popularity of this book, and the great number of well-to-do investors, why not sell us a leather bound, acid free paper, nicely typeset version for $50-$75 retail? Until that ever happens (unlikely, but I can hope) this excellent investment book will have to do in the current paperback form. Remember, if you are considering investing in stocks - start here, read this book! And even if you think you know it all, you still should read Lynch's book, it's that good.
The kind of patience required in seeking the kind of gains you can only reap by holding through volatility and buying & selling on fundamentals & valuation is the key piece of knowledge that you will gain from this book. We're too bombarded on a daily basis about the daily swings of the market - the result? More and more people with less patience failing to make the kind of gains that can only come with good stock picking and more importantly, the patience demonstrated by investors like Lynch, Buffet, Graham and Shelby Davis. ... Read more | |
| 31. Running Money : Hedge Fund Honchos, Monster Markets and My Hunt for the Big Score by Andy Kessler | |
![]() | list price: $24.95
our price: $16.47 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0060740647 Catlog: Book (2004-09-01) Publisher: HarperBusiness Sales Rank: 1258 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description Following on the success of Wall Street Meat, his self-published book on the lives of Wall Street stock analysts, Andy Kessler recounts his years as an extraordinarily successful hedge fund manager. To run a successful hedge fund you must have an investing edge -- that special insight that allows you to reap greater returns for your clients and yourself. A quick study, Kessler gets an education in investing from some fascinating and quirky personalities. Eventually he works out his own insight into the world economy, a powerful lens that reveals to him hidden value in seemingly negative trends. Focussing on margin surplus, Kessler comes to see that current American economy, at the apex of the information revolution, is not so different from the British economy at the height of the industrial revolution. Drawing out the parallels he develops a powerful investing tool which he shares with readers. Contrarian and confident, Kessler made a fortune applying his ideas to his hedge fund. Which only proves that they may not be as crazy as they sound. | |
| 32. How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie | |
![]() | list price: $14.00
our price: $10.50 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0671027034 Catlog: Book (1998-10-01) Publisher: Pocket Sales Rank: 5179 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
|
Book Description YOU CAN GO AFTER THE JOB YOU WANT...AND GET IT! YOU CAN TAKE THE JOB YOU HAVE...AND IMPROVE IT! YOU CAN TAKE ANY SITUATION YOU'RE IN...AND MAKE IT WORK FOR YOU! For more than sixty years the rock-solid, time-tested advice in this book has carried thousands of now famous people up the ladder of success in their business and personal lives. Now this previously revised and updated bestseller is available in trade paperback for the first time to help you achieve your maximum potential throughout the next century! Learn: * THREE FUNDAMENTAL TECHNIQUES IN HANDLING PEOPLE Reviews (332)
Millions of copies of this book have sold because the principles are basic and proven. Sure, some of the language is dated. Many of the characters and companies mentioned in these pages are no longer household names. Look beyond those quirks and you will find some of the most memorable and applicable people skills material ever produced. With simple presentation and vivid examples, Carnegie deftly walks us through Fundamental Techniques in Handling People, Six Ways to Make People Like You, How to Win People to Your Way of Thinking, and How to Change People Without Giving Offense or Arousing Resentment. When material is this old and this good, it could sometimes be considered trite and nothing more than common knowledge. Don't fall into that trap. Until its principles become common practice in our lives, this book is just as necessary and effective today as it was more than six decades ago. Larry Hehn, author of Get the Prize: Nine Keys for a Life of Victory
Reviewed by: James L. Clark, MBA, MSc., PhD Candidate (Leadership) is a serial entrepreneur, lecturer, and consultant. He is the author of the book Wading Through the Crap: How to Start Living the Successful Life You Have Always Wanted (ISBN 0972697551) that has received rave review.
THE FUNDAMENTALS "Speak ill of no man and speak all the good you know of everyone." Say "Thank You". Talk about what people want and help them get it. WAYS TO MAKE PEOPLE LIKE YOU Be happy to see people. Smile! Remembers peoples' names!! Draw people out. Actively research the other person's interests. Every person you meet feels themselves superior to you in some way. WIN PEOPLE TO YOUR WAY OF THINKING Don't argue! Don't ever tell a person they're wrong. If you know you're wrong, admit it. Friendliness begets friendliness. Never neglect a kindness. Start out by emphasizing areas of agreement. Let the other person do most of the talking. Let people come to your conclusions. Think always | |