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| 1. The Six Sigma Way: How GE, Motorola, and Other Top Companies are Honing Their Performance by Peter S. Pande et al, Robert P. Neuman, Roland R. Cavanagh | |
![]() | list price: $32.95
our price: $21.75 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0071358064 Catlog: Book (2000-04-27) Publisher: McGraw-Hill Sales Rank: 5868 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
Reviews (21)
By now we have become well aware of the success of Six Sigma initiatives at major international corporations such as ABB, Allied Signal/Honeywell, Black & Decker, Dow Chemical, Dupont, Federal Express, General Electric, Johnson and Johnson, Kodak, Motorola, SONY, and Toshiba. Once having read this book, I am convinced that -- with certain modifications -- Six Sigma could perhaps be even more valuable to small-to-midsize companies which, obviously, have fewer resources. What exactly is Six Sigma? The authors provide this definition: "A comprehensive and flexible system for achieving, sustaining, and maximizing business success. Six Sigma is uniquely driven by close understanding of consumer needs, disciplined use of facts, data, and statistical analysis, and diligent attention to managing, improving, and reinventing business processes." The authors identify what they call "hidden truths" about Six Sigma: 1. You can apply Six Sigma to many different business activities and challenges -- from strategic planning to operations to customer service -- and maximize the impact of your efforts. 2. The benefits of Six Sigma will be accessible whether you lead an entire organization or a department. Moreover, you'll be able to scale your efforts, from tackling specific problems to renewing the entire business. 3. You'll be prepared to achieve breakthroughs in these untapped gold mines of opportunity -- and to broaden Six Sigma beyond the realm of the engineering community. 4. You'll gain insights into how to strike the balance between push and pull -- accommodating people and demanding performance. That balance is where real sustained improvement is found. On either side -- being "too nice" or forcing people beyond their understanding and readiness -- lie merely short-term goals or no results at all. 5. The good news is, Six Sigma is a lot more fun than root canal. Seriously, the significant financial gains from Six Sigma may be exceeded in value by the intangible benefits. In fact, the changes in attitude and enthusiasm that come from improved processes and better-informed people are often easier to observe, and more emotionally rewarding than dollar savings. The authors organize their material as follows: Part One: An Executive Summary of Six Sigma; Part Two: Gearing Up and Adapting Six Sigma to Your Organization; Part Three: Implementing Six Sigma -- The Roadmap and Tools; and finally, The Appendices: Practical Support. According to Jack Welch, "The best Six Sigma projects begin not inside the business but outside it, focused on answering the question -- how can we make the customer more competitive? What is critical to the customer's success?...One thing we have discovered with certainty is that anything we do that makes the customer more successful inevitably results in a financial return for us." If anything, it is even more important for small-to-midsize companies (than it is for the GEs of the world) to answer these two questions correctly and then track and compare their performance in terms of what their customers require. The well-publicized objective of Six Sigma is to achieve practically-perfect quality of performance (ie 3.4 defects for every million activities or "opportunities") and this is indeed an ambitious objective. Collins and Porras, authors of Built to Last, would probably view it as the biggest of Big Hairy Audacious Goals (BHAGs). In that book, they assert that the most successful and admired companies have the ability -- and willingness -- to simultaneously adopt two seemingly contrary objectives at the same time. Stability and renewal, Big Picture and minute detail, creativity and rational analysis -- these forces, working together,, make organizations great. This "we can do it all" approach they call the "Genius of the And." Pande, Neuman, and Cavanagh suggest that all manner of specific benefits can result from following "the Six Sigma way." For example, Six Sigma generates sustained success, sets a performance goal for everyone, enhances value to customers, accelerates the rate of improvement, promotes learning and "cross-pollination", and executes strategic change. All organizations (regardless of their size or nature) need to avoid or escape what the authors refer to as the "Tyranny of Or." Here in a single volume is about all they need to seek "practically-perfect quality of performance." Whether or not they ultimately reach that destination, their journey en route is certain to achieve improvement which would otherwise not be possible.
Jack Welch, the retired CEO of General Electric, has hailed his recent affair with Harvard Business Review reporter Suzy Wetlaufer as a breakthrough in the business concept of "Boundaryless Thinking". "I could have easily spent the rest of my life trapped in the narrow view that my marriage meant lifelong monogamy," said Welch, a smug look on his face, "but with boundaryless thinking, I was able to take the concept of marriage in a whole new direction. Just like the things I did at GE." Boundaryless thinking was one of the tenants that allowed Welch to get GE out of the failing appliances business and into the credit business, which now comprises more than half of GE's corporate makeup. It was a concept Welch highly stressed and touted in his autobiography "Jack: Straight from the Gut." He intends to follow it up with a new book, "Cheating on your wife the Six Sigma Way: How CEO's of GE, Motorola, and Other Top Companies are Honing Their Extramarital Performance".
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| 2. Mean Markets and Lizard Brains: How to Profit from the New Science of Irrationality by TerryBurnham | |
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our price: $18.45 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0471602450 Catlog: Book (2005-01-28) Publisher: Wiley Sales Rank: 736206 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description In Mean Markets and Lizard Brains, Terry Burnhaman economist who has a proven ability to translate complex topics into everyday languagereveals the biological causes of irrationality. The human brain contains ancient structures that exert powerful and often unconscious influences on behavior. This "lizard brain" may have helped our ancestors eat and reproduce, but it wreaks havoc with our finances. Going far beyond cataloguing our financial foibles, Dr. Burnham applies this novel approach to all of todays most important financial topics the stock market, the economy, real estate, bonds, mortgages, inflation, and savings. This broad and scholarly investigation provides an in-depth look at why manias, panics, and crashes happen, why people are built to want to buy at irrationally high prices and sell at irrationally low prices. Most importantly, by incorporating the new science of irrationality, readers can position themselves to profit from financial markets that often seem downright mean. Mean Markets and Lizard Brains skillfully identifies the craziness that is part of human nature, helps us see it in ourselves, and then shows us how to profit from a world that doesnt always make sense. Terry Burnham, PhD (Cambridge, MA), is an economist at the Harvard Business School. He has been an active and extremely successful participant in the financial markets for over 20 years. Dr. Burnham has a PhD in business economics from Harvard University, a masters in finance from MIT, an MS in computer science from San Diego State University, and a BS in biophysics from the University of Michigan. Before becoming an economics professor at Harvard, he worked on Wall Street, and was the President and CFO of a successful start-up biotechnology firm. He is the author of the bestselling book Mean Genes: From Sex to Money to Food, Taming Our Primal Instincts. | |
| 3. The Strategy-Focused Organization: How Balanced Scorecard Companies Thrive in the New Business Environment by Robert S. Kaplan, David P. Norton | |
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our price: $19.77 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 1578512506 Catlog: Book (2000-09) Publisher: Harvard Business School Press Sales Rank: 5661 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Amazon.com Reviews (19)
1. Translate the strategy to operational terms 2. Align the organization to the strategy 3. Make strategy everyone's job 4. Make strategy a continual process 5. Mobilize change through executive leadership The first four principles focus on the the Balanced Scorecard tool, framework, and supporting resources; the importance of the fifth principle is self-evident. "With a Balanced Scorecard that tells the story of the strategy, we now have a reliable foundation for the design of a management system to create Strategy-Focused Organizations." After two introductory chapters, the material is carefully organized and developed within five Parts, each of which examines in detail one of the aforementioned "common principles": Translating the Strategy to Operational Terms, Aligning the Organization to Create Synergies, Making Strategy Everyone's Job, Making Strategy a Continual Process, and finally, Mobilizing Change Through Executive Leadership. Kaplan and Norton then provide a "Frequently Asked Questions" section which some readers may wish to consult first. There are many pitfalls to be avoided when designing, launching, and implementing the program which Kaplan and Norton present. These pitfalls include lack of senior management commitment, too few individuals involved [or including inappropriate individuals at the outset], keeping the scoreboard at the top, too long a development process (when, in fact, the Balanced Scorecard is a one-time measurement process), treating the Balanced Scorecard as an [isolated] systems project, hiring consultants lacking sufficient experience with a Balanced Scorecard, and introducing the Balanced Scorecard only for compensation. When organizations experience one or more of these pitfalls, their key executives can soon become impatient, confused, frustrated, and ultimately, opposed to Balanced Scorecard initiatives. It is imperative to understand both what the Balanced Scorecard must be (e.g. cohesive and comprehensive) and what it must not be (e.g. fragmented and episodic). Kaplan and Norton correctly note that the journey they propose "is not easy or short. It requires commitment and perseverance. It requires teamwork and integration across traditional organizational boundaries and roles. The message must be reinforced often and in many ways." Those who are determined to achieve organization-wide breakthrough performance are fortunate to have Kaplan and Norton as companions every step of the way during what is indeed a perilous "journey."
Building on their Balanced Scorecard approach, Kaplan and Norton have developed an impressive framework in The Strategy-Focused Organization for the implementation of strategy. They have found that 90% of strategic initiatives fail due not to formulation but to implementation difficulties. Successful implementation of strategy requires all parts of an organizations to be aligned and linked to the strategy, while strategy itself must become a continual process in which everyone is involved. The Balanced Scorecard, originally seen by the authors as a measurement tool, is now presented as a means for implementing strategy by creating alignment and focus. Financial measures report on lagging financial indicators. The Balanced Scorecard aims to report on the drivers of future value creation. The book shows in detail how this is done from four perspectives: Financial, customer, internal business perspective, and learning and growth (these are outlined on p.77). These four perspectives produce a highly detailed framework when combined with the five principles of a strategy-focused organization: 1: Translate the strategy to operational terms. 2: Align the organization to the strategy. 3: Make strategy everyone's everyday job. 4: Make strategy a continual process. 5: Mobilize change through executive leadership. Absorbing every detail of this book will require many hours. The sheer detail of this complex system requires considerable attention, perhaps more than some readers can muster, but clearly distinguishes this work from many books full of business fluff. The style tends to be turgid and pedantic while being admirably complete. Readers can grasp the essence of the book's central points by reading only Chapter 1 (Creating the Strategy-Focused Organization), Chapter 3 (Building Strategy Maps), and Chapter 8 (Creating Strategic Awareness). Skip quickly through the chapters in Part Two: Aligning the Organization to Create Synergies. This section is the least engaging of the five. The balanced scorecard approach to strategy will appeal to those with a systematizing frame of mind. The book is filled with complex diagrams of corporate processes consisting of interrelated boxes and forces. This approach is extremely detailed and complex. It requires a major commitment and effort. Though the authors claim it can be implemented by smaller organizations, this will be more challenging than for large companies who can commit a team full time to working out the details. Much of the value of the approach may lie not so much in following through on completely working out the balanced scorecard but on absorbing the lessons regarding organizational integration across silos and the importance of clarity about mission, strategy, and goals. The balanced scorecard is one way to achieve and implement this clarity but not the only way. Another would be continual reiteration of these (as in Confessions of An Extraordinary Executive). Some companies may benefit from strict use of this system, including finding units of measurement for its implementation. Others will gain much from applying the insights without such a formal and complete implementation.
Michael Beitler
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| 4. Forecasting : Methods and Applications by Spyros G. Makridakis, Steven C. Wheelwright, Rob J Hyndman | |
![]() | list price: $107.95
our price: $107.95 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0471532339 Catlog: Book (1997-12) Publisher: Wiley Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description
Reviews (7)
- Basic forecasting tools and methods - summarizing data, statistical tools, regression, as well as some material on more advanced forecasting methods I was fortunate enough to stumble across this book in a colleagues office and believe this book should belong in every market research professional's shelf.
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| 5. Beyond the Core: Expand Your Market Without Abandoning Your Roots by Chris Zook | |
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our price: $20.37 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 1578519519 Catlog: Book (2004-01-02) Publisher: Harvard Business School Press Sales Rank: 13270 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description All companies must grow to survive-but only one in five growth strategies succeeds. In Profit from the Core, strategy expert Chris Zook revealed how to grow profitably by focusing on and achieving full potential in the core business. But what happens when your core business provides insufficient new growth, or even hits the wall? In Beyond the Core, Zook outlines an expansion strategy based on putting together combinations of adjacency moves into areas away from, but related to, the core business, such as new product lines or new channels of distribution. These sequences of moves carry less risk than diversification, yet they can create enormous competitive advantage, because they stem directly from what the company already knows and does best. Based on extensive research on the growth patterns of thousands of companies worldwide, including CEO interviews with twenty-five top performers in adjacency growth, Beyond the Core (1) identifies the adjacency pattern that most dramatically increases the odds of success: "relentless repeatability;" (2) offers a systematic approach for choosing among a range of possible adjacency moves; and 3) shows how to time adjacency moves during a variety of typical business situations. Beyond the Core shows how to find and leverage the best avenues for growth-without damaging the heart of the firm. Reviews (11)
In the first chapter of this book, Zook discusses what he calls "the growth crisis" which many (most?) organizations encounter. He observes, "Finding or maintaining a source of sustained and profitable growth has become the number one concern of most CEOs. And moves that push out the boundaries of their core business into 'adjacencies' are where they are most often look these days." I agree with Zook that these strategies have three distinctive features: "First, they are of significant size, or they can lead to a sequence of related adjacency moves that generate substantial growth. Second. they build on., indeed are bolted on, a strong core business. Thus the adjacent area draws from the strength of the core and at the same time may serve to reinforce or defend that core. Third, adjacency strategies are a journey into the unknown, a true extension of the core, a pushing out of the boundaries, a step-up in risk from typical forms of organic growth." Much of the material in this brilliant book is guided and informed by what Zook claims is "the new math of profitable growth." Specifics are best provided by Zook himself. Zook presumes that those who read this book already know what a core business is, and more specifically, what the core business is of their respective organizations. Given his objectives, that assumption is probably necessary so that he can explore the opportunities which (key word) appropriate adjencies offer. Fair enough. However, my own experience suggests that companies frequently extend the boundaries of a core business without fully understanding what that core business is. Railroads probably offer the best example. Only much too late (if then) did senior-level executives at major railroads realize that their core business was transporting people and cargo, NOT "railroading." Obviously, trains are confined to the tracks as are ships to the water and trucks to the roadways over which they proceed. Early on, what if owners of railroads and their associates had addressed questions such as those Zook poses in his Preface (Page ix)? Had they done so, presumably they would have recognized appropriate adjacencies which include taxi cabs, Super Shuttle, local delivery services, and "overnight" delivery services (e.g. DHL, FedEx, and UPS). While they're at it, why not own or forge strategic partnerships with over-the-road trucking companies and cargo airlines? Given the central locations of railroad stations in major metropolitan areas, it would have been easy enough to combine a full-range of travel services within an upscale retail mall. The question to ask, therefore, is not what an organization's core business is. Rather, what could AND SHOULD it be? The correct answer to that question is important, of course, because without a proper core, there can be chaos. Also, the correct answer suggests appropriate adjacencies by which to achieve and then sustain increasingly more profitable growth. In the Afterword, Zook imagines himself engaged in what he calls the proverbial "elevator" conversation during which he reviews the "key messages" contained within his book. It serves no good purpose to list them here because each must be carefully considered within a meticulously formulated context. However, once the book has been read, I strongly recommend that all of these "key messages" be reviewed on a monthly (if not weekly) basis. For decision-makers in at least some companies, this may well prove to be the most valuable book they have read in recent years.
Overall, I greatly enjoyed Beyond the Core - it's a relatively quick read that is focused, insightful and well structured. More specifically, I think there are three key things that make this book stand out in comparison to many other business books I've read: 1) it takes a global perspective 2) it is highly data driven and has great examples and 3) its very actionable and offers lots of insights on implementation. To elaborate, the first thing I really liked about Beyond the Core is that it takes a truly global perspective with examples from Europe, Asia and Latin America. As an MBA student majoring in International Business Strategy who will be working in a global firm after graduation, it was great to read about the strategies that firms such as Li & Fung (HK), Ambev (Brazil), Lloyd's Bank and Vodephone (UK) and STMicroelectronics (Italy). Overall, I also liked that the book mixes an array of fresh case studies (Tesco, Biogen, Ambev) with more traditional ones (Dell, Nike, American Express). Secondly, Beyond the Core is highly data driven and the recommendations are based on empirical evidence, not conjectures. As a student of business strategy, I too often come across books or theories that are supported by nothing other than a few select examples that prop up the author's hypotheses. Beyond the Core, in contrast, is supported by an enormous amount of financial, competitive and market research and by many CEO interviews and studies by Bain & Company. This is extremely insightful as it helps the reader understand the odds of success and failure across the business world and thus leads to much more informed strategies. Finally, Mr. Zook has focused nearly a third of the book on implementation and execution strategy. This makes the book and its recommendations highly actionable instead of leaving the author asking "so what?" The book sets out a systematic and understandable road map for adjacency expansion. More importantly, it discusses issues that are critical to growth initiatives such as: organizational structure, decision making processes, staffing, accountability and reporting, etc. In sum, I highly recommend Beyond the Core, especially to global business leaders looking for a practical guide for profitably growing their businesses. Enjoy!!
I found Profit from the Core to be a directionless mishmash of data without firm definitions that repeatedly espoused the idea of "stick to your knitting." As a result, I took up Beyond the Core with great trepidation. At first blush, Beyond the Core seemed to cure some of the peripheral problems of Profit from the Core . . . until I began to notice how almost all of the important examples of continuing business model innovation had been excluded that seemed to fit all of the criteria (except perhaps being willing to be interviewed by the author). Mr. Zook continues to avoid defining what "the core" is, so that basic problem continues. The book's message is "stick to your knitting . . . unless you have not choice . . . then don't go away from your cost advantages and knowledge." If you want to know a little more about that message, you can read all of the key points in the book summarized in the Afterword on pages 189-192 in less than five minutes. The book will mainly be helpful to those who are thinking about making unrelated acquisitions. The advice: Don't do it! The odds are way against you . . . but even the most unrelated acquisitions sometimes work (GE bought NBC and has done well with it, for example). The book lacks clear direction for how some overcome the odds. The book was also curiously silent about how companies can use small experiments to test their way into new areas. That's the way that most firms expand beyond their core. The methodology looks very much like those employed in Build to Last and Good to Great . . . but don't believe it. Cases were selected in part based on whether Mr. Zook could interview the companies. So it's really a subjective sample. So take the conclusions with a selective grain of salt. Here are some of the cases of those who have prospered with expanding into new areas that seem to fit the Zook criteria but don't appear in the book: Beckman Coulter; Berkshire Hathaway; Clear Channel Communications; Education Management; GE; Iron Mountain; Nucor; Paychex; Sony; Virgin Group; Xilinx; and Zebra Technologies. It's not surprising that the book fails to describe the discipline of continual business model improvement as a best practice . . . a serious omission for this subject. Ultimately, I think the flaw behind the book is to look at moving "beyond the core" separately from looking "at the core." If the two books had been combined into one that looked at how to outperform the competition, there would have been the basis of helpful insights. Or, this book could have been scoped down into how to grow into new areas with internal development activities versus acquisitions. That would have been helpful. But with the focus of "beyond the core," you are left in a never-never land that you may not want to be in. The other interesting question that could have been addressed is how companies prospered by eliminating the old core and replacing it with a new one through acquisition as a number of companies have. As I thought about why the author might have chosen this direction, I realized that it may be an unconscious use of the older ways of strategic thinking. Those analytical schemes separated thinking about existing business areas from entering new ones. For some time though, most strategic thinkers have emphasized seeing the questions as connected. You should, for example, be pursuing your best opportunities. That means comparing all choices in some manner at the same time. The other problem with data-heavy studies like this one is that you are relying on backward impressions (with 20-20 hindsight). Studies of best practices are best done by looking at the decisions and actions when they are made . . . and then measuring the results to see what happens. Interviews taken at such times reveal much different information than the neat success stories spun after the fact. Clayton Christensen does a good job of explaining this issue in chapter one of his new book, The Innovator's Solution. As I finished the book, I began to think about the many unsuccessful unrelated acquisitions that I have run into among companies. In almost every case, I remember reading a thick book by a name consulting firm that had explained at the time of the purchase why the acquisition could not miss. Perhaps a follow on for this book would be how to avoid bad advice in evaluating acquisitions.
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| 6. Project Management for Dummies by Stanley E. Portny | |
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our price: $14.95 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 076455283X Catlog: Book (2000-01-15) Publisher: For Dummies Sales Rank: 18541 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Successful businesses and organizations create projects that produce desired results in established timeframes with assigned resources. As a result, businesses are increasingly driven to find individuals who can excel in this project-oriented environment. And that's where this guide comes into play. Reading Project Management For Dummies could help a diverse group of people, some of which include the following: By reading this guide, you'll gain insight into beginning a project, supporting it throughout its life, and bringing it to a successful closure. You'll discover how to manage the uncertainties surrounding a project, and uncover the definitions to the most common project management terms. And you'll figure out how to handle some of the more common project management situations you'll encounter, from dealing with the people involved to organizing the mountains of paperwork. While most businesses are looking for ways to get a better handle on their projects, what no one is saying is that the majority of people who become project managers aren't doing so by choice. Instead, project management is often an unexpected but required progression in their chosen career paths. Think of this guide as a friend or comfortable resource that has more to share each time you crack it open as you experience new situations in which you can apply the knowledge. Reviews (6)
Here is a guideline to use in deciding whether or not to purchase this book:
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| 7. Seeing What's Next: Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change by Clayton M. Christensen, Erik A. Roth, Scott D. Anthony | |
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our price: $17.97 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 1591391857 Catlog: Book (2004-05-01) Publisher: Harvard Business School Press Sales Rank: 2106 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Every day, individuals take action based on how they believe innovation will change industries. Yet these beliefs are largely based on guesswork and incomplete data, and lead to costly errors in judgment. Now, internationally renowned innovation expert Clayton M. Christensen and his research partners Scott D. Anthony and Erik A. Roth present a groundbreaking framework for predicting outcomes in the evolution of any industry. Based on proven theories outlined in Christensen's landmark books The Innovator's Dilemma and The Innovator's Solution, Seeing What's Next offers a practical, three-part model that helps decision-makers spot the signals of industry change, determine the outcome of competitive battles, and assess whether a firm's actions will ensure or threaten future success. Through in-depth case studies of industries from aviation to health care, the authors illustrate the predictive power of innovation theory in action. A unique, "outside-in" perspective on industry change, Seeing What's Next will help executives, analysts, and investors develop invaluable intuition into the future that matters to them. | |
| 8. Principles of Forecasting by J. Scott Armstrong | |
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our price: $95.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0792374010 Catlog: Book (2001-04) Publisher: Springer Sales Rank: 218984 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Reviews (3)
Principles of Forecasting is not a book that you will find in airport bookstores. It is not a popular management title that dishes-up the latest buzzwords. On the contrary, this book will give you knowledge to examine critically the fashions and fads, as well as the received wisdom, of management. And yet, despite being a serious work, the book is a joy to read at length, or to browse. I suspect many decision makers will tend to do the latter. The Forecasting Dictionary is part of Principles of Forecasting and is a good place to start some directed browsing. For example, experienced decision makers will often rely on their intuition, even for important decisions. Is that a good idea? The Forecasting Dictionary has an entry for "intuition" that tells us, "... it is difficult to find published studies in which intuition is superior to structured judgment". Highlighted terms, such as "structured judgment" in the preceding passage, indicate that there is a separate Dictionary entry for the term. By following the highlighted terms and the references to the body of the book which are included in Dictionary entries, one can quickly pick up a useful understanding of a topic. Some entries are very detailed. Following the intuition entry to the entry on structured judgement, one finds "role playing" as an approach to imposing structure on a forecasting problem. Role-play forecasting for conflict situations happens to be an interest of mine. There is a chapter on role-playing in Principles of Forecasting that provides evidence that the outcomes of role-plays by students, and other non- representative role-players,provide accurate forecasts of decisions in real conflicts. This is counter-intuitive given that the conflicts examined involved generals, chief executives, directors, and union leaders among others. Moreover, unaided judgment tends to do poorly by comparison. This has important implications for strategy development - after all, what use is a strategy that fails to forecast accurately how other parties will behave? I keep my copy of Principles of Forecasting handy, refer to it often, and learn something new every time I do so. How many books could one say that of? A precious few. Congratulations to the authors on a unique and valuable work well executed.
The final chapter of this book contains 139 forecasting principles... An example of a forecasting principle is:“13.25 Use multiple measures of accuracy”.A primary use for such principles would be as checklists for software developers, researchers, and practitioners to be sure that their work is complete to this level of detail.These are important general principles.Forecasters will need to use other references for the details of forecasting methods. The Web site for this book is a very valuable resource for forecasters.Some of the resources are:(1) forecasting dictionary [Enter a forecasting term and the Web site returns a definition.] (2) links to forecasting software sites (3) links to forecasting books and reviews (3) links to bibliographies, abstracts, and (for subscribers) full text papers (4) links to conferences on forecasting (5) links to Web sites related to forecasting.
Risk analysis has dealt more with subjects like natural and technological disasters.Business forecasting resembled risk analysis in several ways, but over the years, enterprise and capital markets accumulated much more extensive data.Social scientists studied the process of (and procedures for) forecasting with financial data intensively.Small wonder, as poor forecasting often led to costly disasters. The authors wrote the Handbook in clear, coherent prose.It assembled 29 articles by 40 leading experts into an excellent book with 18 chapters.Armstrong, the editor (and clearly the instigator) created a hierarchical framework that described the relationships between different kinds of forecasting information, beginning with either judgmental or statistical sources."Principles of Forecasting" illustrated this framework in an often repeated diagram. The framework contributed to a coherent structure.Each chapter described one compartment within the framework.Each had an introduction that described the limitations and uses of a source of data used by forecasters.Each article also started with an abstract.Thus, a reader could quickly survey all of forecasting by skimming through the Handbook and reading either the article abstracts or the chapter introductions. Instead of reading the text sequentially, the framework and the Handbook's structure also allowed finding a specific article (or a topic of interest within an article) quickly, yet staying oriented to the overall subject.Thus, "Principles of Forecasting" served a handy reference text.The organization and a competent index sped this application. Many articles were excellent.None were less than very good.The articles concentrated on principles within subdomains of forecasting, which the Handbook emphasized by setting the principles apart in bullet format and bold text.The articles had a common format, which included two useful implication sections, separately for practitioners and for researchers.The articles also had overall summaries, and references to the literature.The authors edited each other's articles, which imposed both high quality and consistency on the Handbook.In addition, an extensive group of outside experts reviewed the articles.This huge effort showed in both dense information content and readability of the articles. Similarly, the Handbook contained a separate and marvelous "Forecasting Dictionary" toward the end, which allowed quick reference to (and understanding of) separate ideas involved in competent forecasting.In another separate section toward the end of the Handbook, a "Forecasting Standards Checklist" gathered all of the principles from the separate articles and condensed them into a very useful guide. "Principles of Forecasting" appeared comprehensive in its coverage.The authors wrote it as an explanation of a field, instead of a group of individual articles about related subjects. An introduction and a summary at the beginning and end of the book, also helped orient me to the overall subject of forecasting and to the need for principles.I thought that the Handbook reflected the consistent objective of a group of experts to interpret and explain forecasting.So, I will recommend it as a textbook for classroom use. "Principles of Forecasting" is not for everyone.It is an expert text.However, for persons involved in (or hoping to become involved in) forecasting or its allied and subsidiary fields, such risk analysis or econometrics, it will prove indispensable. ... Read more | |
| 9. Beating the Business Cycle by LAKSHMAN ACHUTHAN, ANIRVAN BANERJI | |
![]() | list price: $24.95
our price: $16.47 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0385509537 Catlog: Book (2004-05-18) Publisher: Currency Sales Rank: 25395 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
Reviews (22)
I'd recommend it to anyone who's hoping to see the next bend in the road for our economy.
Periodically an excessive optimism leads to the illusion that the business cycle has been eliminated, that the economy can grow steadily without retrenchment, without the need to eliminate its own inefficiencies. Mark Twain knew the "gilded age", the 1920's saw a "new era" at a "plateau of prosperity", and the 1990's marveled at a "new economy" with information systems and supply management software that could control excesses (e.g. inventory) before they stalled the economy. Ultimately the business cycle is produced by an imbalance of supply and demand. But it is human psychology extrapolating from the successes or failures of recent past experience that fails to see the imbalances building in the economy before a pivotal shift undermines a previously successful investment or business strategy. Renewed caution follows optimism, risk aversion follows speculation, and the cycle repeats. Readers will not find completely satisfying answers to "beating" (viz. profiting from) the business cycle in this short study, because its primary purpose is to introduce readers to the subscription advisory services of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). This explains the sometimes self-congratulatory tone of having accurately predicted recent shifts in economic activity both here and abroad. As a stand alone work of merit on the topic the authors might consider a brief glossary of key terms and concepts for a future edition. ... Read more | |
| 10. The Successful Business Plan: Secrets and Strategies by Rhonda Abrams, Eugene Kleiner | |
![]() | list price: $29.95
our price: $19.77 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0966963563 Catlog: Book (2003-09-01) Publisher: The Planning Shop Sales Rank: 18688 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Required reading at America's top business schools, it's been called "the entrepreneur's bible," having helped hundreds of thousands of successful business people get the funding they need to launch their businesses. With a foreword by legendary venture capitalist Eugene Kleiner, The Successful Business Plan is packed with insider tips and insightful advice on writing and formatting a business plan that will stand out from the crowd. Book features: 99 worksheets to help you get started quickly, taking you through every critical section of a successful business plan Sample business plan offering guidance on length, style, formatting and language The Abrams Method of Flow-Through Financials, which makes easy work of number crunching even if you're a numbers novice Special chapters addressing issues of concern for service, manufacturing, retail, and Internet companies Added help for teams and students preparing business plans for classes or competitions Nearly 200 real-life insider secrets from top venture capitalists and successful CEOs learn what truly impresses funders New chapter on starting a business in a challenging economy Reviews (21)
The other thing I like about the new edition is the Excel templates for generating the business plan's financials. They work exactly like the worksheets in the book, which lessens the learning curve. BUT, you have to buy the templates separately from the publisher's website. All in all, a great update to an already excellent book. Highly recommended.
I am the kind of person who has an idea and just wants to run with it; I have a hard time figuring out specifics and financial realities. Between the book (which explained exactly what I needed to know about target markets, competition, cost-benefit analysis and the like) and the downloadable spreadsheets (which did all of the math, and carried the numbers through to all of the projection sheets and balance sheets and income statements and such, and took care of all of the formatting--just print and go!), I was able to write a top-notch, professional-looking business plan (if I do say so myself!) to present to my potential investor, and to the bank when I go to apply for a loan! And I won't feel embarassed by my lack of experience--at least, my business plan won't convey it. Plus, it's really important to go through the process of writing a business plan (and Abrams addresses this in the book) so you can really get a good, clear, structured idea of what you're doing, how you need to do it, and why you're starting a business in the first place.
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| 11. Sales Forecasting: A New Approach by Thomas F. Wallace, Robert A. Stahl | |
![]() | list price: $44.95
our price: $38.21 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0967488419 Catlog: Book (2002-01-02) Publisher: T. F. Wallace & Company Sales Rank: 88765 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Forecasting less, not more, can yield higher customer service and lower inventoriesTeamwork, good communications, and clear accountabilities are more important than complex statistical forecasting models,Its more beneficial to pursue process improvement than to focus narrowly on forecast accuracy. This is an exciting, new, breakthrough approach to a traditionally difficult and frustrating task. | |
| 12. The Innovator's Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth by Clayton M. Christensen, Michael E. Raynor | |
![]() | list price: $29.95
our price: $19.77 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 1578518520 Catlog: Book (2003-09) Publisher: Harvard Business School Press Sales Rank: 1473 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description At best one company in ten is able to sustain profitable growth. Yet capital markets demand that all companies seek it relentlessly and mercilessly punish those who fail. Why is consistent, persistent growth so difficult to achieve? Surprisingly, its not for lack of great ideas or capable managers, nor is it because customers are too fickle or innovation too unpredictable. Innovation fails, say Clayton M. Christensen and Michael E. Raynor, because organizations unwittingly strip the disruptive potential from new ideas before they ever see the light of day. In his worldwide bestseller The Innovators Dilemma, Christensen explained how industry leaders get blindsided by disruptive innovations precisely because they focus too closely on their most profitable customers and businesses. The Innovators Solution shows how companies get to the other side of this dilemma, creating disruptions rather than being destroyed by them. Drawing on years of in-depth research and illustrated by company examples across many industries, Christensen and Raynor argue that innovation can be a predictable process that delivers sustainable, profitable growth. They identify the forces that cause managers to make bad decisions as they package and shape new ideasand offer new frameworks to help managers create the right conditions, at the right time, for a disruption to succeed. The Innovators Solution addresses a wide range of issues, including: How can we tell if an idea has disruptive potential? Revealing counterintuitive insights that will change your perspective on innovation forever, this landmark book shows how to create a disruptive growth engine that fuels ongoing success. Reviews (24)
The chapters on growth and avoiding commoditization are particularly important in today's environment. To be sure that some of the concepts are proposed in an academic way and it takes a while to understand what the "more than good enough" and "less than good enough" concepts. Nevertheless, it works and is worth the time to reflect on what these concepts mean to your business and your future. Disruption is one of the forces in our society and business. It is one that this book explains very well. You do not have to read the first book "dilemma" to understand and get value out of this book, but once you read the "solution", you can gain a greater appreciation of Christensen's earlier works.
Another strategy is for a company to get in on disruptive technologies by participating in a venture capital pool in their sector. That's an insurance policy, and a win-win all the way around. They can get a look at what is coming at them and so they can make plans for what the future life of their current line is likely to be - invaluable business intelligence. If the competition is really a disrupter, they get the big payoff from their venture capital investment. Heads they win, tails they win. This book has a good description of how things work, but the prescription isn't terribly useful. It indicates just how lacking in real world experience Mr. Raynor is.
What I did like is how he covers the footnotes at the end of each Chapter - so if they don't interest you, you can skip over them, but if they do interest you, then you don't have to struggle to the back of the book. I wish more authors & publishers would use that technique. One quibble - given his Economics background, he suggests that having competing phone standards is not wasteful. Only an Economist would say that. A Consumer finds it frustrating. He has the good grace to suggest in a footnote that some readers might take issue with him, and I am one. He belittles the benefit of schoolgirls from Sweden using their phone on vacation in Spain, but I can vouch that being able to readily check on the safety of my teenage daughters when they're in foreign Countries for over 10% of the year is a definite benefit! Given his Economics background - of course there are plenty of graphs, and 99% of them are straight lines - there are no time dependent variances in his world. Also some silly proof-reading slips, such as a "semi-log" graph being described as "semi- long". Probably still worth reading the Innovators Dilemma before reading this one, just to get the theory.
Christensen outlines the Dilemma again in this book, presenting the concepts of disruptive and sustaining innovation, and why large companies consistently struggle with disruptive innovation. He does present some tactics for large companies, such as investing in a venture capital fund. This provides companies with invaluable information about the future in their market and provides an opportunity to identify disruptive technologies early on. Like many technology books, Innovator's Solution, stretches to make its argument without the aid of quantitative research. Nevertheless, this book is well suited for managers wanting to understand the Dilemma and began putting the theory into practice. I gave this book 4-stars because it is insightful and very well written. While no golden solution is presented, Christensen outlines several strategies and tactics for addressing the dilemma. Certainly many books will follow by other authors. ... Read more | |
| 13. Business Forecasting and Student CD Package (8th Edition) by John E. Hanke, Dean W. Wichern | |
![]() | list price: $124.00
our price: $124.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0131073850 Catlog: Book (2004-01-06) Publisher: Prentice Hall Sales Rank: 552701 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Reviews (1)
This book SUCKS! ... Read more | |
| 14. Writing a Convincing Business Plan by Art Dethomas, Lin Grensing-Pophal, Arthur R. Dethomas, Lin Grensing | |
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our price: $11.53 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0764113992 Catlog: Book (2001-01-01) Publisher: Barron's Educational Series Sales Rank: 9812 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description | |