Book Description

The process known as Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) is supply chain management taken to the extreme. The first book to document this cutting-edge technique that's been adapted by companies like Wal-Mart, Pillsbury, and Procter and Gamble, Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment collects case studies and contributions by the foremost experts in the field to give readers an insightful introduction to this revolutionary new supply chain method.

The CPFR technique involves supply chain members sharing information in real time over the Internet, enhancing the collaborative dialogue between retailers and vendors. The process allows long- and short-term planning to happen instantaneously, as information is shared regarding forecasts, shipping and production, point-of-sale data, and order generation. Based on groundbreaking research done at Harvard Business School, this book shows anyone involved in long-term strategic planning how CPFR can be implemented -- quickly, successfully, and in almost any setting. ... Read more

Book Description

Elements of Forecasting, 3e is a concise, modern survey of business and economic forecasting methods.Written by a leading expert on forecasting, it focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability and assumes only an elementary background in statistics.It is applications-oriented and illustrates all methods with detailed real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations.In many chapters, the application is the centerpiece of the presentation. ... Read more

Reviews (4)

Third edition is no better
I posted the unfavorable review of the second edition. I have recently had an opportunity to see the third edition, and find the same errors are still present.

an embarrassingly slapdash and sloppy book
There were a considerable number of errors in the first edition that I pointed out to the author shortly after its publication. The second edition seems to have corrected few if any of them. Let me cite two egregious examples.

In the chapter on ARMA models, the example analyzed is Canadian Employment data. One of the models that is fit is an MA(4) -- see pages 164-6. When I tried to reproduce these results using software other than EVIEWS, using the data disk in the 1st edition, I couldn't. I contacted EVIEWS and they discovered a programming error in the estimation routine. They released a patch to fix EVIEWS. However, the author never re-estimated his model, and the estimates in the second edition are the same as in the first. However, my copy of the 2nd edition has no data disk! Was that thought to be an adequate solution?!

Chapter 9 ("Putting it all together") is a capstone chapter that analyzes liquor sales data using the techniques introduced in earlier chapters. After several pages (pp. 207-19) a model is selected. On pages 220-2, the residuals are examined using the Box-Ljung statistic, and deemed acceptable. However, as a careful examination of table 9.6 makes clear, the p-values for the Box-Ljung statistic were computed as if the input data were a raw series. The model generating the residuals (p. 219) had 3 autoregressive terms! This changes the d.f. in the chi-square distribution of the statistic. If you make the appropriate correction using the data in table 9.6, and compute the p-values correctly, you will see that the model residuals apparently ARE NOT white noise. One reason is a calendar effect in liquor sales: months that contain more than a usual number of Fridays and Saturdays result in more liquor sales; ones with more Sundays result in lower liquor sales. However, the author doesn't discover this, but accepts his inappropriate model on the basis of faulty distribution theory.

Good, but poor examples
If the purpose of using this book is to get a brief idea of what certain concepts are then it is a good book. Unfortunately, many people using this book are going to be those who do not have much background with the concepts inside and they will be looking for clearer explanations of what the author is talking about. I think that is the book's weakness: the fact that many times I didn't feel that his definitions and explanations were complete enough.

Excellent introductory guide to forecasting !!!
The use of practical examples (using the Eviews software) and the availability of a data disk makes this a very relevant guide for practitioners. There is a good section on graphical analysis and modelling of cycles using AR and MA processes. The mathematics is kept simple and clear, intuitive explanations are given throughout. The treatment of unit roots, cointegration and other advanced materials is quite sketchy but I guess that is to be expected in an introductory text. With the level of clarity evident throughout this book, I certainty hope Diebold follows up with another book on more advanced forecasting techniques. ... Read more

Reviews (7)

Super Reference!
Ms. Teal has already written a comprehensive overview of what her book does. What I love about this work is the information about Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter Returns, because there is so little else written on them. She covers a lot of information including progressions, transits, and other Returns as well. There are numerous examples to illustrate in a well-organized, very readable work that is easy to reference. Lots of valuable information not readily available elsewhere!

very good follow-up to 'predicting events'
In her second book Celeste Teal reveals something more about techniques for prediction. Though she refers a lot to techniques already mentioned in her first book the most valuable parts in this book are about the return charts and the transit descriptions by dr. Smith. This book is a must read for all astrologers.

Great info, flawed presentation
Golden nuggets of information buried in a muddled, overly detailed presentation. Not for beginners. If you are a professional astrologer or have a few years of study behind you, you'll be able to pull out a couple of very useful techniques you may not have seen elsewhere--the use of anilunar returns, for example, which is the return of the moon to its own place in the solar return chart. I found it to be an extremely accurate predictive device, and very simple. There is also the wonderful technique of progressing the Saturn return chart, which is a blessing when dealing with older clients still struggling with Saturn's lessons. And she does a very thorough job of taking us step by step through the process of using return charts as predictive devices--not only solar and lunar returns, but the important(and under-used)returns of Mercury, Venus, and Mars. Her advice on how to prioritize progressions is a useful reminder for everyone from beginners to seasoned professionals, and she makes an important point many astrologers forget--that the return charts reflect what is happening in the progressed chart in the same way that the progressed chart can only be an unveiling of the potential in the natal chart. My problem with the book is that it's very difficult to use as a reference work. If you had difficulty interpreting a return, you'd be hard pressed to find an answer here--no index to help you find what you need. And there are much better books on interpreting progressions and transits. I wish that the publisher had coaxed a smaller, more useful book out of this author. Is it worth buying? Yes, if you're serious about your astrology; particularly if you've been swimming in the more esoteric astrological waters lately, and need to get your feet on the ground of practical predictive techniques.

Best of Astrology
A complete forecast reference!!! I found Identifying Planetary Triggers to be a thorough reference for learning prediction techniques and timing. I bought the book because I was interested in learning about planetary returns and I was not disappointed but I found later that interpreting my lunar returns has been even easier since I went back and read the first part of the book on progressions. Ms Teal says that important themes will be repeated from the progressed to the return charts and I've found this to be true. Also, my ability to accurately spot important days and the kind of activity from my lunar returns and my solar return is beginning to be impressive. The section on Transits contains a rare find! The previously unpublished manuscript by Heber Smith who was Evangeline Adams instructor is included and that material alone is worth more than the price of the book. I highly recommend this book and I've now ordered Ms Teal's book on prediction.

Bad organized and very confused
You waste a lot of time trying to find what you really want, apparantely it's well organized, however in fact it isn't. It is very confused, she mixed up the different techniques and you don't really know what is she doing. ... Read more

Book Description

In "Forecasting Financial Markets", Tony Plummer provides a compelling insight into the psychology of trading behavior and shows how the herd instinct in decision-making can have disastrous results. The ability to make money in markets depends critically on an individual's ability to make decisions independently of the crowd. To attain such independence the investor or trader must acquire the ability to:

Understand the forces at work in logical terms;

Recognize -- and neutralize -- their own emotional responses to market fluctuations;

Design an investment process or trading system that generates objective 'buy' and 'sell' signals.

The book explores these three dimensions to successful trading in detail.

This fourth edition of "Forecasting Financial Markets" has been completely updated to take into account the author's latest research into cycles and the implications cyclical patterns and rhythms have on economic and financial market behavior.

New chapters included deal with:

* The phenomenon of cycles;

* The threefold nature of cycles;

* Economic cycles;

* Recurrence in economic and financial activity;

* Forecasting with cycles;

* Finding cycles. ... Read more

Reviews (1)

Awesome technical analysis book
Many technical analysts like to forget that they live in the real world. Technical analysis is based on the idea that the patterns drawn by stock prices can be used to forecast the financial markets. The field of behavioral finance essentially looks at this psychological give and take from an academic perspective, while technical analysis is largely a real life application. Tony Plummer brilliantly bridges this gap by showing how and why these patterns develop. He also discusses his own take on Elliott Wave Theory in a cogent and interesting manner. (Disclosure: This reviewer wrote "Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably" and Mr. Plummer wrote the foreword to the book.) ... Read more

Book Description

"The Dream Society . . . provides dramatic insights into how marketing will operate in the 21st century."­­Atlanta Business Chronicle

A fascinating look into the future of business, as featured in Fast Company

The future is uncertain­­the world is constantly changing. While anything can happen, some things are far more likely than others. Rolf Jensen, internationally renowned futurist, provides readers with a tangible look at what the future will be like over the next 25 years.

By identifying what lies ahead, Jensen gives people the knowledge they need to make informed decisions and strategically align themselves to capitalize on the unknown future, a future Jensen calls "the Dream Society." This dream society is characterized by the commercialization of emotions.

In this provocative exploration, Jensen says that it will no longer be enough to produce a useful product. He shows that, for a product to be successful, its primary purpose will be the ability to fulfill an emotional need.

Those who understand the workings of this dream society will be the ones who create the new products, new markets, and new businesses that dominate the world of tomorrow.

Reviews (11)

The Past does not Equal The Future. Know Why!
Definitely coming from the New Sciences breakthrough achievements this book pleasantly takes us to our present 'inner world' and our future world in which this inner world will be expressed. This book builds a strong case for looking at ourselves, our 'now' and our future with the full spectrum of human components in view. And it provides us with interesting views on the translation of 'total human perspective' into society. Yes, this book may stimulate your ability to even capitalize on the 'Dream Society' in business terms. Jensen invites you to jump into his helicopter and take a ride with him to past, present and some possible futures. Join him, and broaden your view of, and your choice in, different 'parallel universes'.

Imagine starting a business and a "story" at the same?
Rolf Jensen postulates an age where companies will have to differentiate themselves by creating stories about who they are, what they stand for, and who their customers will be when they become "part" of the story as consumers. Using the trends established by existing, successful organizations like Nike and Disney, Jensen paints a picture of marketing through consumer allegiance by imagination.

For would-be futurists, this book is compelling. For ordinary business folk, this book gels all the trends and ideas you've been seeing lately, and makes sense of it all. For the rest of us -- the Dream Society articulates the need we humans have for stories, culture, and acceptance.

This is an extraordinarily intriguing book. Even if you don't agree (or are afraid to imagine) the future scenarios Jensen presents, you'll be compelled to admit -- the Dream Society may really be here after all. A must-read!

Makes sense and an easy read
The book is the result of 15 yrs work at the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies. I bought it to read on my holiday but finished it two weeks beforehand! It made some really interesting points:

* Man has been around for c.100,000yrs: 90,000 as hunter-gatherer, 10,000 as farmer, 200 in industry and maybe 30 in IT. This book provides a glimpse of what comes next!

* We will see a move from the rational to the emotional. 'The successful companies of the twenty-first century...besides meeting the social and emotional needs of employees...will want to cater to consumers' emotional and social needs' [e.g. Shopping Malls as Theme Parks?].

* Current accounting methods measure 'the company's capital at night...when all employees have gone home'. The author discusses Intellectual Capital: salary negotiations as establishing an employee's value as a company asset and the 'real cost of layoffs...just as if tossing computers out the window would destroy physical capital, layoffs involve throwing away human capital. If we are talking top-quality computers with modern software this is a bad idea.'

* In a concept that may have significant employee training and development implications, the author quotes Tom Peters: 'Brand yourself' and believes that 'the "branded" employee will triumph over the Brand X employee...increase awareness about your existence and skills...'

Insightful!
Rolf Jensen has written a thoroughly absorbing book about the nature of change. Although it attempts to predict the future, it is not a trend book. Rather, it is an attempt to figure out how society will be organized. Jensen analyzes trends only in the context of determining whether they have a place in the new global business model called the dream society. Anyone with an interest in understanding the personal and business paths that will exist in the future will find this book valuable. Anyone actively engaged in a global business will find this book invaluable in charting 21st century inflection points. We [...] recommend this book to all executives and managers doing business in the global economy.

Dream on
Every once in a while, a management guru or academician writes a book so idealistic and simple in its basic premise that it appeals to scholars and businesspeople alike solely for the inherent beauty in its simplicity. Much like the appeal of fairy tales or biographies. No fuss, no complexity, no crooked lines. But whereas this way of storytelling is charming when describing a lifelong career or the fate of princess or princesses, it becomes downright repulsive when applied to modern business and economics. Not only repulsive, but also dangerous. Jensen is learned and a fine raconteur at that, which he uses to his advantage in this book. The basic premise, that corporations of today are selling stories instead of products is intriguing, if not completely original (Pine & Gilmore described the progression of economic offerings towards experience and entertainment in their 1999 book "The Experience Economy"). Had Jensen stayed within the boundaries of a conventional management book, i.e. simplified descriptions and corporate nice-to-know facts, The Dream Society would have been a fair effort, if slightly trivial. The big misstep that Jensen makes is that he, like too many other colleagues, starts to add a philantrophical aspect to his ideas. Not only can the striving towards a dream society be applied to goods and services, but also on the modern family, on the third world, on modern labour, globalization, urbanization etc. In fact, so amazing is Jensens Dream paradigm that there is no area or phenomenon that is left unexplored. Actually, "unexplored" is an inaccurate description. There is no area that Jensen doesn't beleaguer with his newly found buzzword-baby. That's where the book sets off on thin ice. To fully explore a principle, such as "The Dream Society", one must look at its flaws and dangers. The term "fundamentalist" is what we use to describe the people that don't and instead take the written word as the formula to follow. Jensen displays similar dogma and fanaticism in his belief that The Dream Society is our goal and destiny. As he runs astray from the description of economic offerings, he looses the integrity that he displays in the early chapters of the book, his "succesful" attempts to apply the theory to, well, anything become more comical... and questionable. ... Read more

Reviews (6)

A Valuable Resource
I started studying astrology in my spare time nearly four years ago. Most of what I've learned has come from following the discussions of friends and reading books they've recommended.

Tyl's work is high on their list of reference materials. After reading Solar Arcs, it is easy to see why. Tyl's writing style is user friendly. His clear, well-defined examples make it a valuable resource for skilled astrologers & students as well.

I look forward to reading Synthesis & Counseling in Astrology next.

Indispensable Tool
Tyl's work is a must-have for any astrologer wishing to add precision and clarity to predictive work. He uses many case studies and examples (including a very courageous and honest assessment of his own chart) to illustrate solar arc technique. He demonstates the theory behind the technique, and shows how amazingly simple and yet astounding it is.

Solar Arcs: Astrology's Most Successful Predictive System
Mr. Tyl's books are always informative and this book is no exception. In fact, his style and presentation seems to improve with each new book he writes (which seems impossible since his earlier books are simply the best)!

The examples bring considerable insight into the actual process of interpretation. The flow of information is sequential and logical, enhancing the readability of this book.

Don't let the "size" of this book overwhelm you. Mr. Tyl takes a daunting topic and makes it completely "reader friendly" with insight and widsom rolled in, to it round out.

a treasure
Out of his long experience Noel Tyl presents us with one of the most important astrological books about this technique. With a lot of case studies he shows us convincingly the power of solar arcs in the 4th harmonic (though his examples are full of semisquares and sesquisquares - and that's the 8th harmonic - so I think you're better off with the 8th H). According to Tyl midpoint pictures that contain the same planet/point on both sides of the equation are not valid. I do not agree with that, especially not with solar arcs and directions. I refer to the fabulous book 'Midpoint keys to chiron' by Chris Brooks where such combinatiosn are called 'explosions'. In his book Tyl also mentions the rulerships (without going much deeper and that's a pitty) and the tertiaries. I'm glad that Tyl has written his experience on midpoint pictures down in the 2nd appendix. His interpretations are a very welcome addition to Ebertin's Combinations of Stellar influences. It's a treasure.

Essential for the professional astrologer or serious student
Incredibly powerful - yet deceptively simple to comprehend and use - Solar Arc theory and application is clearly explained, demonstrated, and reinforced using major events in the lives of well-known individuals.   The reader is quickly compelled to examine his/her own chart and explore Solar Arcs on a more personal level.

Solar Arcs can easily be incorporated into the Astrologer's arsenal of techniques, helping to better explain past and current events, and prepare a meaningful strategy for the future. Also, individual chapters focus on the use of Solar Arcs in birth time rectification, using Solar Arcs with Midpoint pictures, and the use of Tertiary Progressions to fine-tune astrological timing.
 
The helpful appendices include the "100-year Quick-Glance Ephemeris", and detailed interpretive guidelines for "all 1,130 possible Natal and Solar Arc Midpoint pictures..." 

Don't miss this one!  ... Read more

Reviews (17)

Useful, Fun, Futures!
Richard Laermer's Trendspotting is exactly what the author claims it to be -- Cliff Notes for future business trends "without the guilt." In an easy to read, light style (I read it in a few hours on the plane) Laermer conveys what makes the time we live in so filled with possibility. From SMS messaging and integrative medicine to spirituality and wireless infrastructure, he lets the people who are doing it talk about it; and then throws in some of his own spice for good measure.

Great read for beginning futurists
Richard Laermer presents a entertaining and informative look at the future in "Trendspotting." Laermer takes a holistic approach to envisioning the future, focusing on entertainment and spirituality as well as technology. This is important, as trends converge and combine in unexpected ways -- which is the central challenge of futurism. "Trendspotting" also strikes a balance between optimism and a wariness of unanticipated consequences, which sets it apart from the Internet-will-change-everything enthusiasm of future guides of just a couple of years ago.

One thing "Trendspotting" is not is in-depth... which is not necessarily a bad thing. The generalist approach makes it a great introductory text for beginning futurists.

The book, however, has two funamental weaknesses. One is Laermer's very clear liberal bias. In of itself, that isn't a problem, but a more politically balanced viewpoint would allow the book to be even more enlightening. The second, more serious problem is not so much the fault of the book or author, but of time. My edition is dated 2002, and it makes absolutely no reference to the most profound events of our time: 9/11 and the subsequent war on terror. Books like this ought to be updated every year or so, as even the most subtle of current events can change the outlook of the future.

Does not deliver on it's promise.
I have read a number of trendspotting books over the years, and this one does not deserve a place in this genre.

There are two major shortfallings:

1. Laermer makes the crucial error of letting his liberal/progressive political bias affect his interpretation of culture. I agree with his politics to a great extent, but introducing it into his research affects his perceptions and make his findings shallow. This is most obvious where he discusses "The Family" and "Spirituality" where he is clearly an outsider.

2. Unlike genuine trendspotting books by Rushkoff, Naisbitt, Toffler and Popcorn, this book does not offer any new thesis in decoding culture. Why is there only one chapter on the "how" of trendspotting?

The book should really be titled "My Trendspotting".

3. The back cover claims "original insights" from various industry insiders. Don't be misled, these guys don't get much input in the book, and they are also hampered by their own interests or bias.

I suggest you use the Amazon browse feature and read a few pages before you make your purchasing decision, and compare it with serious trend spotting books by the authors mentioned above.

Useful marketing book
Enjoy reading this book. It can be used by anyone who wishes to spot the new trend and sells product. I am using it in my marketing class. Its website ... is cool.

Wake up and smell the future guide
Clues to the future are right in front of those willing to look for and use them. The author's easy to read prose, personal point of view and down to earth tales, provide often funny examples of how to ride or miss the opportunity boat. This book is a definite read for researchers trying to spot the next "Big Blue." ... Read more

Book Description

Your Battle Plan to Winning the Competitive Wars
Today's business world is in a state of constant upheaval. Deregulation, globalization, and new technologies are fragmenting markets and tearing down barriers. New businesses are sprouting up in areas that didn't even exist a few years ago. Today, with global alliances and speed-of-light advances in technology, anyone—from established behemoth to tiny startup—can become a significant player in virtually any market. But how can a company maintain its competitive advantage in this new, unpredictable environment?
In Leapfrogging the Competition, business management expert and popular speaker Dr. Oren Harari shows you how any organization can vault over today's competition and lead the market—not merely respond to it. Inside you'll discover the five cutting-edge, giant steps that savvy business leaders around the world are using to propel their companies to new heights. You'll learn not only how to survive in today's marketplace, but how to win.
"Shows how organizations can use the power of information technology to create strong partnerships."—Michael Dell, Chairman & CEO, Dell Computer Corporation
"A fast-moving, on target tutorial on how to clean out the underbrush of fads and decaying management theories and get ready for the new wave of knowledge-driven and people-focused winning organizations. Terrific reading for anyone who wants to lead from the front!"—General Colin Powell
"A masterpiece . . . with sound theoretical underpinnings and a wealth of to-do's for today."—Tom Peters, author of In Search of Excellence
"This rich book is lofty, yet completely practical. The reader comes away with a sense of 'now I understand, now I know what to do.'"—Scott Shuster, Business Week ... Read more

Book Description

Here is an experience-rich book on how companies can createvalue by becoming smart organizations.Based on research andconsulting engagements with the world's largest R&D-intensivecompanies, it reveals how senior managers can dramatically improve thereturn on their companies' investment in R&D and technology.

TheSmart Organization brings new perspective to management decision makingthroughout the organization.It identifies the key practices thatenable successful organizations to deliver a stream of winning productsand services.Smart organizations, say the Mathesons, haveinternalized nine interlocking principles essential in creatingcorporate cultures that emphasize making the right strategic decisionsat the right time. They use best practices to support these decisionsand sustain their success.These principles--among them, embracinguncertainty, disciplined decision making, and value creationculture--enable companies to make appropriate choices about their R&Dplanning, portfolio management, and product strategies.

Drawing onthe experiences of R&D-intensive organizations all over the globe, theauthors illustrate the book with best practice examples from companieslike Hewlett- Packard, 3M, Merck, Proctor & Gamble, DuPont, Monsanto,and AT&T.They stress the importance of evaluating trade-offs,investigating alternatives, and getting buy-in across functions toensure that decisions will be viable from both the technological andmanagerial perspectives.They show how managers can apply thesemethods more broadly to create a smart organization.The Mathesonsclearly demonstrate that changing the decision-making process is anefficient means of reforming culture and improving not just R&D butoverall company performance. ... Read more

Reviews (6)

Great book. If you liked the HBR article, you'll love this!
Frequently organizations face the challange of what not to do. They tend to believe in the person presenting the idea, rather then creating a rigorous process for evaluating the options before them. Companies adopting best practices in managing their investment options realize substantial gains in their long term bottem line. This book quantifies this performance difference, and what the best practices are across a range of industries.

Why aren't organizations more rigorous in selecting projects? The book outlines several barriers which are extremely relevent:

· It will make a popular champion look bad,

· Organizational resistance to change, or cannibalization of an existing business for a new opportunity,

· We confuse the urgent with the important,

· Its hard to agree on measures and success criteria

· People are afraid of making the wrong prediction, so they don't make any,

· Its hard to normalize results from different contributors,

· Business plans are not integrated with new project activity,

· Power and politics, a methodical evaluation leaves no room for interpretation and "behind the scenes" trade offs between groups and individuals,

· Lack of strategy.

The best practices outlined in this book are backed by substantial research. I would have like to have seen a few additional chapters on application of best practices in real companies ... a case study of a turn around.

Ideas in the book come to life!
Thank you very much for sending me a copy of The Smart Organization. I have completed only two chapters, but find the book to be thoroughly engaging. Especially, the six dimensions of decision quality.

My current job is proving to be a daily "case study." The ideas contained in the book have come to life, helping me to better understand my environment at work and make better decisions along the journey.

Great insights for all concerned with strategy and renewal.
Focusing on large R&D intensive organizations, this book explores nine key principles that make these enterprises effective, such as: open information flow, systems thinking, and continual learning. The author's emphasize the decision making process as a means of changing and improving overall organizational performance. If you are seeking new insights into how strategy is developed, excellence can be achieved in decision making, and organization renewal can be realized, you will find this book enlightening and fascinating reading. The insights offered here are by no means limited to high-technology firms; they apply to any organization seeking to be successful in today's fast-paced markets. This work includes an organizational IQ test (a diagnostic tool) for identifying root causes of the barriers to improving decision processes. There is an impressive amount of knowledge about organization to be gleaned in The Smart Company. Whether you are a technology -based bus! iness or not, you will find many nuggets in this work. We highly recommend it.

One of the best organising frameworks I've met
The Strategic Decisions Group framework for smart organisation is informative. One reason for this is that the authors are reporting a practical benchmark study of R&D which appears to include every American corporate I've ever heard of. They do readers the great favour of synthesising this into a 9 principle framework for Smart Organisation. 3 principles for achieving purpose: -continual learning -value creation culture -creating alternatives 3 principles for mobilizing resources: -open inforamtion flow -disciplined decision making -alignment and empowerment 3 principles for understaning environment: -systems thinking -embracing uncertainty -outside-in strategic perspective What I especially like is that for each principle 5 How do you knows? are given scaling the difference between an organisation which hasn't got a clue about the principle (not smart) to one that lives it (smart org) For example these are the 5 how-you-knows of alignment & empowerment: 1 Examine the strategies at different levels (eg technology strategy to portfolio strategy to project startegy). In smart org: there are clear strategies at all levels taht provide useful guidance for decision making. Strategies at one level are clearly linked to the next. Lower level strategies interpret and carry out the implementation of higher-level strategies. In not-smart: few strategies or they provide little guidance for decision-making. They are viewed cynically as corporate PR. Links among strategies are absent, unclear or ambiguous 2 Examine the value measures used to evaluate decisions at different levels. In smart org: there are clear measures of value at all levels. Value measures at one strategic level are clearly linked through the strategy to measures at the next level. In non-smart: There may be no value measures. If there are, each level sets its own values or decision criteria, with no special requirement that they be related to values and strategies at other levels. 3 Examine the approvals required to make or carry out important decisions. In smart org: Decisions require few approvals because people understand the strategy and are trusted to carry it out. Meetings with upper management are viewed as adding value. In not-smart: Decisions require many levels of approval. Review meetings are perceived as wasting time. Often meetings with upper management are feared because it may redirect efforts and change priorities without clear reason. Upper management often feels overloaded with the need to check on subordinates. 4 Examine the roles of people involved in an important recent decision. In smart orgs: Many people participated in the decision process,at multiple levels in the organisation. A dialogue was carried out in the process that continually aligned and refined the vertical links. Management at different levels collaborated to build a high quality decision and achieved aligned commitment to action. In non-smart: Either few people participated in the decision or so many did that the process got bogged down. Typically, lower level employees make proposals to upper levels for approval or rejection 5 Examine a recent decision that was controversial. In smart org: People unified around the decisions aand carried it out with little intervention. They understood the reasons for the decision and believe the organisation is carrying out a sensible strategy for creating value. In non-smart: The decision did not stick and was undone or remade over and over again. 100+ of us are discussing frameworks like these in a free e-mail group : Organising Creativity Network. e-mail me, Chris Macrae, at wcbn007@easynet.co.uk if you are passionately interested.

At long last (we have) found a potential path to salvation..
Quoted from an e-mail from a major aerospace corporation executive: "Some of us at (large aerospace company) have at long last found a potential path to salvation in the Mathesons' new book, 'The Smart Organization.' (Director, Technology) ... Read more

Book Description

Commerce between the East and West is bound to increase. Western business people need to recognize the very different philosophies, values, and perceptions in China/Asia if they hope to build successful business relationships. This excellent book will start you on the road to enlightenment.- Philip Kotler, SC Johnson and Son Distinguished Professor of International Marketing, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University.

A stellar road map into the Chinese business mind that should benefit both those studying the Chinese and those working with them.- Vijay Mahajan, John P. Harbin Centennial Char in Business, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin & Dean, Indian School of Business, Hyderabad, India.

The Authors have been very successful in bringing in the cultural history of China and connecting it to Chinese business strategies and doing business in China. This book is a must read for businessmen who do business in China, for students in this area and for people who want to understand the way Chinese systems operate against a historical background.- Rob Westerhof, Chief Executive Officer. Philips North America (Previously, CEO, Philips East Asia). ... Read more

Reviews (2)

The More Times Change...
...the more they stay the same. Despite the fact that this book was written and published more than five years ago, it's still the best book written on strategy execution and implementation. Alright,... I'll admit it: the book's title and cover design need a little work (author take note!!). However, if you're willing to look past these superficial flaws, you'll discover the definative book on strategy implementation -- even better than Larry Bossidy's fine "Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done." In addition to this book and Bossidy's "Execution," I'd also recommend that you consider Kotter's "Leading Change" and Smallwood, Ulrich, and Zenger's "Results-Based Leadership" (both five-star books!!). Bottom line? "Implementing Your Strategic Plan" is a must addition to your management library. Overall grade: B+/A.

Making strategic intent into a reality.
This book could have been titled "making change happen." The core of this book consists of a chapter by chapter discussion of the 18 keys to implementing the strategic plan. The 18 keys are grouped into five categories: setting accountability; enabling and aligning action; fixing the organization; providing an environment in which people can excel; and judging and rewarding. This is a superb, penetrating and detailed book which begins with a fascinating summary of findings from the author's survey of CEOs and key executives who were successful in implementing change. One insight stands out from these findings-teams don't develop paradigm shift strategies; CEOs do. Indeed Fogg states that the single most important factor in the change equation is leadership. With that truth set forth up front, we were confident that this book would be a rewarding experience; it was...and we highly recommend it! ... Read more

Book Description

The competitive landscape in Asia is undergoing a sea change. Companies are finally breaking the bonds imposed by the 1997 financial crisis. The engine of growth is shifting from exports to Asian market demand. China's rapid development is redrawing the Asian playing field. National fiefdoms are succumbing to cross-border competition. Together, these forces are signaling the emergence of a fundamentally new competitive game-and there will be no going back.

International business expert Peter J. Williamson argues that competing in this rapidly evolving arena will require a very different kind of company. In this book, he identifies the key challenges that will distinguish the winners in tomorrow's Asia and explores the fundamental changes-in business models, mind-sets, organizational structures, and management processes-that will be required to meet those challenges.

Asian companies will need to leverage the strengths of their local heritage into the future by building distinctive, new strategies around them. Western multinationals will need to fundamentally reassess the approaches that have won them a share of Asia's rapid growth over the last two decades.

Laying out strategies for creating a new and distinctive breed of Asian corporation, Winning in Asia provides a blueprint for reshaping the future of Asian competition. ... Read more

Book Description

In her book Modern Competitive Analysis Sharon Oster shows that combining a sound understanding of economic and managerial principles can make a striking difference in the quality of the strategic planning of any organization. Now completely updated, this third edition includes new material on game theory, added value analysis, and strategic intent. Examples are drawn from modern network industries and more attention is paid to newly deregulated markets. ... Read more

Reviews (2)

Great textbook on competitive strategy
Excellent textbook on competitive strategy using an economics approach. The first edition complemented my business and economics studies at grad school. Includes a chapter on regulatory (public policy) impacts on business; a topic usually missing from strategy texts. Shows how a 'bill becomes a law' from the business/market perspective !

Required at Chicago GSM
An excellent MBA-level textbook introduction to the principles of competitive strategy, with clear explanations and definitions of basic concepts.  Especially good if you feel like you need a better grounding in business-level strategy. ... Read more

Amazon.com

In 1982, Frank Batten flipped a switch and began what he called "a weather forecast that will never end." There's probably no better emblem of niche media than the Weather Channel and its super-specialized field of interest. After 20 years of mapping high-pressure fronts and covering hurricanes, however, "We have built one of the strongest brands anywhere in the media business," writes Batten, former chairman and CEO. Most of The Weather Channel concentrates on all the problems Batten and his media company experienced in the early 1980s when they hatched their idea for all-weather programming and struggled to get it on the air. "I'm sure that we tried to do too much, too fast," says Batten, who nevertheless endorses the too-much, too-fast approach: "I'm convinced that if we hadn't acted as aggressively as we did--if we hadn't spent the money, rushed down the road, and pushed ourselves and our partners ... The Weather Channel may never have been." Batten concludes by discussing the future of weather predictions (they're going to get a lot better, he thinks) and offering unconventional advice to aspiring media tycoons (don't offer stock options to employees). This book will appeal to aficionados of isobars and other weather events, as well as readers interested in how to start a thriving business. --John Miller ... Read more

Reviews (14)

A Great Management and Personal Lesson
I know the senior author and the Landmark newspaper in Norfolk well. At least I thought I did. This book was an eye-opener about Frank Batten, Landmark,and The Weather Channel. Although the story is clearly facinating from a business and weather junkie perspective, its main lesson is how Landmark deals with its own people. Giving key employees responsibility and trusting their decisions is backed with a piece of the financial action. This message eclipses all of the financial, media, and marketing information about the amazing development of The Weather Channel. The book is a refreshing story of business success based on individual player's skills and the stellar reputation of a relatively small privately held communication company.

A great read--recommended!
I'd recommend this book to anyone who regularly tunes into The Weather Channel for their weather forecasts. It's a fun read and great look at how this cable channel began and how it was run back in the early years of cable TV. It's a story that few people know about. The founder of TWC takes readers through all of the early struggles he had in the beginning and shows how the small start-up cable network became a media giant with millions of followers that have become die-hard fans. This is far from a CEO-memoir--it's truly an amazing story. Take this book to the beach with you this summmer!

interesting but......
This book is a business story of how The Weather Channel became one of the leading media brands in the nation. It is not a "behind the scenes at TWC" tale, although a few pages in the "afterword" give readers a brief glimpse at how it all comes together on air.

The most fascinating parts of Batten's story are the tales of how TWC came to be in the very beginning, from the early company history, to the initial concepts and business plans of the late 1970s and early 1980s, to the 1981/1982 start-up, to the birthing pains caused in part by a messy corporate divorce with one of the founding partners. The book also provides an interesting glimpse into how the cable TV landscape was first settled by pioneers like HBO, ESPN, WTBS/CNN and, of course, TWC.

The latter half of the book deals with many of TWC's forays in the 1990s, including the highly-successful weather.com website, as well as several international ventures). But the final chapters lack excitement or drama.

The book has 264 pages, and it's not a hard read. I think the same story could have been told more effectively in about half the space, leaving out many of the details. The authors of this book focus almost exclusively on the TWC dealings and strategies at the corporate and operational levels. A better story could have been told by weaving in more perspectives from other TWC people, namely the on-camera meteorologists, some of whom have been with TWC since the very early days. Combine the best elements of this book (the first half of the story, in particular) with a real 20 years of "behind the scenes", and you'd have a compelling tale that would appeal to audiences beyond the book's target audience (TWC die-hards, business students, weather and media professionals).

Finally, the book provides 16 pages of full-color photos, but none appears to be older than 1998. Why didn't the authors add photos from the early days? Those of us who have been TWC fans for many years would have appreciated seeing some of the old faces, old graphics, and old technology that have made The Weather Channel the familiar and trusted friend it is today for millions of people.

Despite its flaws, I recommend the book for those who are interested in TWC specifically, or in the media or weather businesses in general.

Interesting look at a media success
This is an interesting book, using the Weather Channel as an example of the birth of specialized channels in the early cable market. Now we take the plethora of channels available to us as a given (57 channels and nothing on), yet in the early days it was a fight to get a new channel carried over cable systems. The Weather Channel succeeded through a strong idea, people that believed in it, and being on the cutting edge of technology. While I expected this to be a straight story of the birth and growth of the Weather Channel, I was surprised to find that it was that, as well as a musing upon communications, and what makes a successful channel, and a successful company. The actual history is only a bit over half the book. The rest looks at the technology involved, and the lessons of leadership, and new ventures. Finally it concludes with some interesting first person stories of experiences in the building of the channel. An interesting read. Not exactly what I expected, but still a fascinating glimpse behind getting a specialized cable channel up and running, and successful for 20 years.

Not what I expected, but it is a book on TWC...
For those thinking about buying this book. One word of caution, it is NOT specifically about TWC. It is more about creating a business from the ground up and ignoring critics, blah, blah, blah. I was hoping for a behind-the-sences type of book on TWC, but this is not the case. A pretty dull book IMO, but a great book if you're a business person. ... Read more

Book Description

What are the key foreign economic policy issues facing the United States in the second half of this decade? How can the administration and Congress meet the economic challenges that lie ahead? This new book analyzes the dramatic importance of the world economy to both the domestic prosperity and overall foreign policy of the United States, describes the new global environment (e.g., the rise of China as a global economic superpower and the completion of European unification) in which US policy must operate, and proposes major US initiatives on a wide range of international economic issues, including correction of the huge current account deficit, new trade negotiations, and energy. Individual chapters by senior staff of the Institute on each of the key topics are included. ... Read more

Book Description

How would like to spot future trends before the competition?

We all know the rules for success in our business or professions, yet we also know that these rules--paradigms--can change at any time. What Joel Barker does in Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future is explain how to spot paradigm shifts, how they unfold, and how to profit from them. Through the power of this method--paradigm spotting--you can:

• find the people in your organization most likely to spot a new trend
• help your key people adept when a massive change is occurring
• learn to effectively grapple with your "intractable problems" and improve your results incalculably.

In addition, Paradigms is full of concrete examples of paradigm shifts and predictions for the future, and contains a new introduction detailing recent developments and pointing out areas to watch tor paradigm shifts.

Reviews (14)

Good reading for those interested in Futurist studies
Joel Barker does a nice job of explaining paradigm shifts and how to look for and anticipate the shifts. As he says, "You cannot know who is going to bring you your future. You cannot qualify them in advance by looking at degrees or experience, or gender, or race. You can only listen." And what do you listen for? You listen for people messing with the rules, because that is the earliest sign of significant change.

I found the book very interesting until about half way through. After that, it seemed the author had explained the bulk of his theory and had to add stuffing to complete the book. However, I do recommend this as reading to anyone interested in futurist studies. The book is very easy reading and can be read from cover to cover in about 1-4 hours for even the moderate reader.

Paradigm 102--what is it?--how can I see it coming at me?
Barker writes this basic guide to paradigms and shifting in plain English and uses lots of examples. Being a pradigm pioneer is a useful concept. Barker states that managers work within a paradigm, leaders lead between paradigms. There is a section on looking into the future which he calls the "art of strategic exploration". There may be a lack of "how-to" suggestions, but then, they would probably not get you into a new "how-to", which is why you would read the book.

Paradigms, paradigms, paradigms
Paradigmatically speaking, paradigms are everywhere in Joel Arthur Barker's pageantry to all things paradigm. In the end, I'm not really sure what this book does for you? It seems that Barker keeps the language annoyingly ultra-simplistic while trying to present the paradigm philosophy by repeating the word paradigm as much as can be linguistically saturated in the holdings of 211 pages.

Barker's concept that the most difficult problems in business are waiting for someone to come around and break all the rules and infuse new life into an organization and rewrite the procedural bible. And as soon as that is running smooth, a new paradigm is up for the offing. Along the way Barker even comes up with his own paradigm for the paragraph with these scant gems (mind you they are complete paragraphs)--

"It won't work that way next time around."

and the ever-succinct--

"The answer--Switzerland."

While he is busy rewriting the rules of English composition, Barker takes the time to hail the Japanese TQM revolution economic miracle and the eventual dominance of paradigm breaking e-publishing. The Asian market turned out to be not necessarily infallible and I can't remember the last time I wanted to read an entire book on a computer screen or LED screen. But such is the hazards of a futurist, that your future predictions can be steam-rolled ten years down the line by armchair pundits gazing through 20-20 hindsight binocs. It's not fair, but a warning is out there Barker's book is dated.

The ideas are good and well enough...don't turn a blind eye to innovation, seek out the voice in the wilderness, listen to outsiders, quality, quality, quality. But there are timeless books like Robert Pirsig's, "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance," that do much the same but cry out with skill and art through the lens of a story. Barker's work is thinnish, wanting for the meat and potatoes and grist of a bright idea worded well.

Explains complicated subject with clarity
Barker has the rare gift of explaining a complicated subject with clarity. He states that when the rules change, ie., paradigm change, the whole world changes. Perhaps the most interesting statement the author makes is that we must accept new paradigms as an act of faith. If one waits until all the evidence is presented it will result in being left behind as the competition gets a head start.

One particular insight was very useful for church leaders. Barker points out that many businessmen (and church leaders too) tend to take culture paradigms and turn them into sacred icons that must be protected at all cost. I was very pleased that the author did not fall into the post modern spirit which declares that truth is relative; rather, he forcibly declares that there is an objective knowable universe. One page 172 he states the most logical anti-public gambling argument I have heard.

Barker sees a rosy future, perhaps he is right. What he fails to address, however, is that new paradigms are two-edged swords, bringing post prosperity and doom. His belief in the innate goodness of human nature is misplaced. His presumption that nation health care swill be an effective way of controlling cost is absurd. Reading between the lines I got a hint of New Age thought. It almost seems that he believes in he potential omniscience of man.

Some insights that were of help were: It is often the outsiders to come up with new paradigms. It is not accident that many growing churches are bypassing traditional seminaries as a source of personnel. It also explains the fierce resistance to change within any organization. Those who have been there the longest have the most invested and also the most to lose if change occurs. The new outsiders have very little invested and much to gain. I also learned that the future is coming faster than we realize. If we wait to see what is coming, we will be left behind. Growing churches must be on the cutting edge of what God is doing.

An excellent guide for enhancing your strategic exploration!
This is actually the paperback version of "Future Edge: Discovering the New Paradigms of Success," by the same author. In fact, both books are sort of brief updates of the author's earlier book, entitled "Discovering the Business of Paradigms," written in the mid-80s.

Drawing essentially from the pioneering work of Thomas Kuhn, who wrote the classic, The Theory of Scientific Revolutions, in the 70's, this author has very artfully expounded the concept of paradigm shifting in the world of business, in contrast to the world of science. From a strategic exploration viewpoint, this is an excellent guide book.

Understanding - and mastering - your paradigms is one important thing for making progress in life and in business, but I personaly feel that the real essence of this book is succinctly captured by the author in the five strategic exploration tools outlined in the book. The five tools are intended to help you to enhance your anticipation skills. They are! the real gems of the book.

I would recommend readers to buy and read this book jointly with Wayne Burkan's Wide-Angle Vision. Wayne Burkan has been a collaborator of Joel Barker, and he introduces some more new and practical ideas to the paradigm phenomenon.

Better still, view also and learn more from the videos (in which both authors are the lead facilitators), The Paradigm Prism and The Implications Wheel, which bring the whole paradigm concept to life and which showcase some more real-world business examples.

If you want to explore your future, read this book! As the author puts it, before you can create your future, you must first explore it. You must create and shape your future, otherwise some one else will! One of the very few books that have impacted my life design in the second half. ... Read more

Book Description

In the midst of a changing economy, most executives continue to use a strategy toolkit designed for yesterday's more stable marketplace. As a result, strategies emerge that neither manage the risks nor take advantage of the opportunities that arise in highly uncertain times.

Now, McKinsey & Company consultant Hugh Courtney argues that managers must move beyond the outdated "all-or-nothing" view of strategy in which future events are either certain or uncertain. Instead, he suggests a simple-yet powerful-alternative: Understand the level of uncertainty you are facing in a given situation, and you will make better, more informed strategic choices.

Based on an international review of the key strategy problems faced by over one hundred leading companies, Courtney reveals how executives can develop 20/20 foresight-a view of the future that separates what can be known from what can't.While executives with 20/20 foresight can rarely develop perfect forecasts of the future, says Courtney, they can isolate the "residual uncertainty" they face and use this insight to create competitive advantage in today's turbulent markets.

Unveiling a revolutionary framework for diagnosing to which of the four levels of residual uncertainty a specific strategy choice corresponds, 20/20 Foresight shows how readers can leverage this knowledge to answer three key strategic questions: 1) Shape or adapt to uncertainty? 2) Make strategic commitments now or later? and 3) Follow a focused or diversified strategy?

20/20 Foresight also:

* shows strategists how to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process-from formulation to implementation-to the level of uncertainty faced,
* describes the strategic-planning processes readers can use to monitor, update, and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets, and
* includes a toolkit for identifying, developing, and testing new strategy options-complete with guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation at the right time.

A comprehensive approach to strategy development under all possible levels of uncertainty and across all kinds of industries, this is the essential guide for making tough strategic choices in a changing world. ... Read more

Reviews (11)

Measuring Degrees of Probability Amidst Uncertainty
Courtney and his McKinsey associates decided to launch within their firm the Strategy Theory Initiative (STI), a multi-year research effort whose objective was to identify, develop, and disseminate what they learned about a "better approach" to the immensely challenging complicated design/implementation process. (While reading the Preface to this book, I was reminded of one version of a Hebrew aphorism, "Man plans and then God howls with laughter.") The material is carefully organized within seven chapters. In the first, Courtney shares what he and his research associates learned about crafting strategy in an uncertain world; in the next chapter, we are introduced to what are called "The Four Levels of Residual Uncertainty." (All by itself, this chapter is well worth far more than the cost of the book.) Then on to address five separate but related questions:

• Should we shape or adapt?

• Should we begin the process now or later?

• Should we focus or diversify?

• Which new tools and frameworks are needed?

• Which new strategic-planning and decision-making processes are needed?

Of course, Courtney fully realizes that the revelations of the STI research can only guide and inform appropriate answers to questions such as these. He agrees with Mike Hammer that searching for a "silver bullet" is a fool's errand, noting that "there [is] no easy one-size-fits-all solution that could be translated from theory into practice. Business strategists needed new theory [and, in italics] new practices if they wanted to make better strategy choices."

At the height of the Cold War, I recall someone noting that Russian historians could predict the past with absolute certainty. This book's title does not suggest that if you read this book, you can see the future. ("Man plans and then God laughs.") Rather, instead of burying uncertainties in meaningless base case forecasts or avoiding rigorous analysis of uncertainties altogether, Courtney suggests that we "embrace uncertainty, explore it,, slice it, dice it, get to know it." If we do this well? "[You] will reach a wonderful goal: 20/20 foresight." The best available information serves as the basis of the most reliable forecasts which, in turn, improve the chances of devising the soundest strategies.

After summarizing the appropriate toolkit for each level of residual uncertainty (see figures 6-1 through 6-4), and having also suggested various tools and frameworks needed to develop 20/20 foresight, Courtney offers five additional tools in the Appendix: The Uncertainty Toolkit. He briefly but brilliantly explains how to use scenario planning, game theory, decision analysis, system dynamics models, and management "flight simulators." Although this book will obviously be of substantial value to senior-level executives in larger organizations, I think it will be invaluable to others such as CEOs and other decision-makers in small companies. The challenge for all of them is to "tailor strategy to the level of uncertainty," whatever the nature and extent of their competitive marketplace may be. Here in a single volume is about all they need to begin the process. Another thought: This book would be an excellent choice as the basis of a one-day or (preferably) two-day offsite executive "retreat" for strategic planning. Reading it in advance would be required. The first two chapters would be excellent for assisting situation analysis, then on to the next five chapters which could serve as the core of the agenda. (I also recommend that Hammer's The Agenda be consulted, at least by the person who leads the group discussion. And, by the way, that person should NOT be the CEO.) The session would conclude with a review of the consensus achieved, followed by a discussion of how to communicate and collaborate effectively while using various tools, including the five recommended in the Appendix.

Courtney would be the first to point out that, over time, other sources of information and guidance may become necessary. For that reason, he includes clusters of annotated "Recommended Readings" to assist his reader's selection process. Thoughtfully, he adds to their number with other suggestions within his extensive notes.

For at least some individual executives and some organizations, this may well prove to be for them the most valuable business book published during the first decade of the 21st century.

To those who share my high regard for it, I specifically want to recommend (again) Hammer's book as well as Jim O'Toole's Leading Change, Jason Jennings' Less Is More: How Great Companies Use Productivity As a Competitive Advantage, Peter Schwartz' The Art of the Long View: Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your Company, and finally, Carla O'Dell's If Only We Knew What We Know: The Transfer of Internal Knowledge and Best Practice.

Concise Tools & Framework Guideline
The book provides a concise guideline on business strategy tools & framework, based on 4 levels of 'residual uncertainty'. Courtney repeatedly mentioned the non-dynamic nature of Michael Porter's competitive strategy framework, thus the need of utilizing various 'new' tools (such as Real-Option, Simulation). I find that Porter's work on competitive advantage, value chain, clusters, do incorporate the 'dynamic nature' of the present business world. What Courtney nicely provides is a systematic way to select the relevant 'tool' in the business decision process. But a through understanding and analysis based on 'classic' strategy framework (such as Porter's) is critical in order to achieve business success.

Nothing impressive
The book provides no exciting findings for strategic decision makers. The only idea this book has is to disting