Book Description

Conservation biology relies not only on the general concepts, but on the specific methods, of population ecology to both understand and predict the viability of rare and endangered species and to determine how best to manage these populations. The need to conduct quantitative analyses of viability and management has spawned the field of "population viability analysis," or PVA, which, in turn, has driven much of the recent development of useful and realistic population analysis and modeling in ecology in general. However, despite calls for the increased use of PVA in real-world settings?developing recovery plans for endangered species, for example?a misperception remains among field-oriented conservation biologists that PVA models can only be constructed and understood by a select group of mathematical population ecologists.

Part of the reason for the ongoing gap between conservation practitioners and population modelers has been the lack of an easy-to-understand introduction to PVA for conservation biologists with little prior exposure to mathematical modeling as well as in-depth coverage of the underlying theory and its applications. Quantitative Conservation Biology fills this void through a unified presentation of the three major areas of PVA: count-based, demographic, and multi-site, or metapopulation, models. The authors first present general concepts and approaches to viability assessment. Then, in sections addressing each of the three fields of PVA, they guide the reader from considerations for collection and analysis of data to model construction, analysis, and interpretation, progressing from simple to complex approaches to answering PVA questions. Detailed case studies use data from real endangered species, and computer programs to perform all described analyses accompany the text.

The goal of this book is to provide practical, intelligible, and intuitive explanations of population modeling to empirical ecologists and conservation biologists. Modeling methods that do not require large amounts of data (typically unavailable for endangered species) are emphasized. As such, the book is appropriate for undergraduate and graduate students interested in quantitative conservation biology, managers charged with preserving endangered species, and, in short, for any conservation biologist or ecologist ... Read more

Book Description

A must-have resource for any parent or educator who wants to help children think about interconnections in our world.

Each chapter focuses on a favorite children's picture book--and reveals the systems principle inherent in the story, general points for discussion, illustrations of key concepts, and questions to spark conversation for both younger and older readers. ... Read more

Reviews (4)

Systems Thinking Through Stories - A Winning Combination!
Systems thinking provides structure to understanding our complex world. Stories, whether our own or selections from literature, offer a powerful hook to recognition of the interconnectedness within a system.

As an educator, I've been intrigued with the idea of systems thinking, but somewhat intimidated by its complexity. After reading and rereading WHEN A BUTTERFLY SNEEZES, I have a far deeper understanding of its power.

I''ve long believed in the power of story to enhance understanding. This little book affirms that belief.

Thank you, Linda Booth Sweeney, for this fine work.

Systems thinking is good for kids and adults.
I have used some of the same stories described in Linda's book in training courses with environmental professionals from many countries as well as in introducing systems thinking into my own organization. There is a universal appeal to stories by Dr. Seuss, for example, and much wisdom hidden just behind the wild drawings and imaginative language. Linda's unique contribution lies in showing teachers and parents how they can use a wide range of enchanting stories to tap into this deeper meaning in order to improve problem solving abilities in everyday life. The book's recommendations on using stories can easily be applied to improving our parenting and teaching skills by listening more carefully to the stories children tell, asking better questions, and sharing responsibility with our children for interpreting the answers.

Stories as a structure for sustained learning
The mark of a great story is that it plants a deep seed in ones psyche that penetrates and grows slowly but oh so steadily. Like a koan, it imbeds itself and connects the limbic system with the neo-cortex, the emotions with the intellect. As one encounters the world, the story keeps resurfacing just when appropriate, deepening ones learning. Linda Booth Sweeney has found magical ways to plant seeds in kids (young and old), about critical messages of connectedness and life, and elegantly woven ways of learning that are ancient and current. Readers are in some ways left with a living question in their hearts and minds: What is life asking of me now?

Stories: A Gateway to Systems Thinking
"When a Butterfly Sneezes" uses stories to help introduce the basics of systems thinking. This book was written for parents and educators as a guide for helping children gain a richer and deeper understanding of the world around them through their favorite stories. This is a much needed book for parents who enjoy reading to their children and for educators, particularly those who work with students in the K-4 classroom where there is a focus on literacy. "When a Butterfly Sneezes" is a first of a kind book on this subject and at this level. It offers parents, teachers and teacher educator's a practical means for introducing systems to young minds. I will use this book in teacher education courses and recommend it highly to others. ... Read more

Book Description

In The Emerging Consensus of Social Systems Theory Bausch summarizes the works of over 30 major systemic theorists. He then goes on to show the converging areas of consensus among these out-standing thinkers.Bausch categorizes the social aspects of current systemic thinking as falling into five broadly thematic areas: designing social systems, the structure of the social world, communication, cognition and epistemology.These five areas are foundational for a theoretic and practical systemic synthesis. They were topics of contention in a historic debate between Habermas and Luhmann in the early 1970's. They continue to be contentious topics within the study of social philosophy.Since the 1970's, systemic thinking has taken great strides in the areas of mathematics, physics, biology, psychology, and sociology. This book presents a spectrum of those theoretical advances. It synthesizes what various strains of contemporary systems science have to say about social processes and assesses the quality of the resulting integrated explanations.Bausch gives a detailed study of the works of many present-day systems theorists, both in general terms, and with regard to social processes. He then creates and validates integrated representations of their thoughts with respect to his own thematic classifications. He provides a background of systemic thinking from an historical context, as well as detailed studies of developments in sociological, cognitive and evolutionary theory.This book presents a coherent, dynamic model of a self-organizing world. It proposes a creative and ethical method of decision-making and design. It makes explicit the relations between structure and process in the realms of knowledge and being. The new methodology that evolves in this book allows us to deal with enormous complexity, and to relate ideas so as to draw out previously unsuspected conclusions and syntheses. Therein lies the elegance and utility of this model. ... Read more

Reviews (1)

No end to the fresh ideas
People new to systems thinking and cybernetics are looking for handy resources to get started. This book requires something more. However, once a person gains a basic understanding, this book has proven to me to be one of the best. It points the reader in a number of directions for further study, and gives a useful summary of what the reader will find there.

Its treatment of the famous Luhmann-Habermas debates was especially helpful, and I plan to use a number of other sections in my own studies and college teaching for some time to come. I find that the writer understood the importance of orienting the reader who hadn't been comfortable with the science and mathematics that often go with systems thinking.

The author does an especially good job trying to integrate certain concerns with democracy, participative management, and widespread involvement that a systems approach sometimes neglects in pursuit of social engineering by a technical elite.

This book was heavier than a simple introduction, so it is not exactly the front door to systems thinking, but I have found it to be a hallway to many rooms that I am still exploring -- thanks to Kenneth Bausch. ... Read more

Book Description

Complex interacting networks are observed in systems from such diverse areas as physics, biology, economics, ecology, and computer science. For example, economic or social interactions often organize themselves in complex network structures. Similar phenomena are observed in traffic flow and in communication networks as the internet. In current problems of the Biosciences, prominent examples are protein networks in the living cell, as well as molecular networks in the genome. On larger scales one finds networks of cells as in neural networks, up to the scale of organisms in ecological food webs.
This book defines the field of complex interacting networks in its infancy and presents the dynamics of networks and their structure as a key concept across disciplines.
The contributions present common underlying principles of network dynamics and their theoretical description and are of interest to specialists as well as to the non-specialized reader looking for an introduction to this new exciting field.
Theoretical concepts include modeling networks as dynamical systems with numerical methods and new graph theoretical methods, but also focus on networks that change their topology as in morphogenesis and self-organization. The authors offer concepts to model network structures and dynamics, focussing on approaches applicable across disciplines.

... Read more

Reviews (1)

Crosses Many Disciplines
The attraction of this book is the chance of serendipity. The sheer joy and possibility of thumbing through it and stumbling across something germane to your research, but totally unforeseen by you or others.

The book sits astride several disciplines. Mostly biology. But also computer networks, of which, of course, the Internet is the primary and largest example. But the book also covers some portions of sociology. The classic six degrees of separation between any two people in the world. Actually this is more a metaphor than the literal truth. But still useful in understanding human networks.

If you are currently working with some type of network, your expertise in it, while being a strength, may also be a weakness if it makes you unaware of qualitatively different networks that yet have some commonality with yours. ... Read more

Amazon.com

In this intellectually challenging book, Nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine tackles some of thedifficult questions that bedevil physicists trying to provide an explanation for the world we observe. How isit, for instance, that basic principles of quantum mechanics--which lack any differentiation betweenforward and backward directions in time--can explain a world with an "arrow of time" headedunambiguously forward? And how do we escape classical physics' assertion that the world is deterministic?In a sometimes mathematical and frequently mind-bending book, Prigogine explores deterministic chaos,nonequilibrium thermodynamics, and even cosmology and the origin of the universe in an attempt to reachan explanation that can reconcile physical laws with subjective reality. ... Read more

Reviews (13)

A compelling case for a new worldview
As an earlier reviewer said this book provides a solution to three of the most important problems in science: 1. time's arrow 2. the measurement problem in QM 3. The existence of freewill (and the the death of the absolute determinism of Newton and Einstein). Although the book is short, I think he provided a compelling outline for the solution of all three problems. At times understanding his solutions requires understanding some advance concepts from math and physics. However, I believe an intelligent layman could skim these parts and still follow his presentation. (There is a glossary at the back of the book.)

I wish that Prigogine could have discussed in more detail the philosophical (and perhaps even religious) consequences of this work, which there are many, but few are explored and none are explored in depth. One consequence he does explore briefly is that it appears that "time precedes existence!" And at the end of the book, he also briefly addresses the worldview that emerges from his work. He says: "What is emerging is an 'intermediate' description that lies somewhere between the two alienating images of a deterministic world and an arbitrary world of pure chance. ... As we follow along the narrow path that avoids the dramatic alternatives of blind laws and arbitrary events, we discover that a large part of the concrete world around us has until now 'slipped through the meshes of the scientific net,'to use Alfred North Whitehead's expression."

I give the book my higest recommendation and hope in sequels Prigogone and his co-workers can explore the technical details (textbook level) and the philosophical consequences (layman level) of this very important and exciting work.

Tightening the Science Net Meshes. But Still Missing Much!
In a world gone crazy with Bohr's "observer-driven collapse of the wave function", Everett's surreal "many-worlds theory", and Einstein's discomforting "reversibility of time-flow direction", Prigogine stands as possibly the sole (or last?) defender of commonsensical notions of time in physics (which equals to say, of sanity!). He is the Champion of Time, bow, arrow, and all! His weapon: a "bow" of decades of successes (including a Noble Prize) in nonequilibrium thermodynamics. His ammunition, a quite peculiar arrow: the arrow of time. But just as happens with many literary characters, not only his virtue but also his vice may spring out of the very same source; in his case, his "sane" notions about Nature...

This book will very likely prove readable by most general readers, like myself, provided the technical parts are carefully skipped, and the central ideas are correctly spotted. It truly presents essential insights to issues like: the emergence of complexity; self-organization; the nature of matter; determinism vs probability; and the validity of time symmetry in both quantum mechanics and classical mechanics equations. As to issues like the actual existance of a flow and arrow (direction) of time (which, by the way, is the very subject of the book) and the existence of free will, the book may be too far from conclusive...

It seemed to me (only top experts could really tell for sure) that Prigogine showed compelling evidence supporting the idea that, contrary to the prevailing notions in the field of physics, there is time asymmetry both in quantum mechanics and in classical mechanics. And also, that reality at both these levels is not deterministic, but truly probabilistic. He further showed that determinism should be replaced by a probabilistic account of events both in situations where we have finite knowledge about the initial conditions and in situations where we have infinite knowledge (we are done with Laplace's Demon at last!). This alone is already a breakthrough, even though probably not news to well-informed members of the physical sciences community.

I found Prigogine a little bit contradictory (it might be that Nature itself is contradictory in this regard) when talking about determinism/time-reversibility. Sometimes, I got the impression that it only exists in idealized (non-real) situations, and sometimes I understood it as if it does exist in certain specific (real) situations.

I also found his rejection of Gödel's time-reversible interpretation of Einstein's equations far too emotional, instead of being based on experimental-mathematical grounds. As far as I know, this viewpoint, too, has experienced considerable growth over the last 10 years or so (the studies about CTC - closed timelike curves), and it seems to be a quite respectable field of inquiry. Time-flow reversibility does not seem less crazy to me than the fact that we have to use imaginary numbers (that is, numbers that do not exist at all!) in theories that deal with some very basic properties and behaviors of matter, like quantum mechanics and chaos.

Even though physicists usually equal time symmetry (in physical equations) to time-flow reversibility, and asymmetry to irreversibility, I don't see why this has to be so. Nor does this book clarifies this issue any further to the layman (it is interesting to point out in this regard that even the probabilistic collapse of the wave function is considered by the prevailing views of physicists to be symmetrical/reversible, according to Penrose in The Empreror's New Mind). Our suspicions and complaints about the mysterious nature of time are very much justified: space gives us 3 dimensions, bidirectional and with no compulsory flow. Time, on the other hand, gives us just 1 dimension, unidirectional and with compulsory flow. At best, we can slow it down, by traveling close to the speed of light (quite comforting, isn't it?).Time alone is responsible for most of our losses in life (unless you get exiled or something...). I think that, interpreting "time symmetry" as "time reversibility", scientists have actually tried to solve the unsolvable.

In our quest to understand the Universe, we often find three kinds of questions: first, those that can be proved or disproved, like the old statements "The Sun revolves around the Earth" (disproved), and "The Moon revolves around the Earth" (proved). Second, questions that can be proved, but not disproved, like the existance of God or of life after death. Third, questions that cannot be either proved or disproved, like the existance of consciousness in other human beings than ourselves (or in dogs) and (to me) the actual existance of time flow.

Prigogine says that in this book he tried to follow (or discover?) a "narrow path" between utter determinism and total randomicity, probably hoping to find room for free will in between. Although I think he did a brilliant work, I feel that he got stuck in this Narrow Path. His work refutes determinism, but instead of presenting phenomena or advancing mechanisms to support free will, it only casts us into the depths of utter chance. In spite of that, when talking about self-organization in dissipative structures, Prigogine passes on the idea of "choice", even saying (more than once) that "matter begins to see" and that "the system chooses". This might ascribe to nature at its most basic structure the properties of "life" and maybe even of "consciousness", which might mean that we are at the verge of a revigorated return to the ancient ideas of hilozoism and panpsychism. Furthermore, this blurs the limits between emergence and reductionism, for it is very difficult to take a sound reductionist stand (or emergencionist stand) if we don't know what to expect of the world around us (we can't tell if something is emerging or just "arising").

Prigogine's appeal for sanity is both his virtue and his weakness, in a Universe that pays little heed to human's logic and causality. A Universe in which, regardless of being dictated by an authoritarian God or determined by blind and cold laws of nature, the only theory that may account for all that there is is the familiar and provincial B.I.S.O. theory. Namely: Because I Say So!

New physics for 21st century
I did buy this book some time ago and then I was fascinated. I studied the basis of his theory, but unfortunately, Prigogine passed away recently, before I can discuss with he some topics in more detail.

The greater part of the book is written in a natural style, but some sections are highly mathematical even for the majority of scientists! This mathematical presentation has a curious explaining. There are several version of Prigogine's theory, but the first versions had been "abandoned", and then Prigogine details the new approach: "Star-unitary theory for LPS outside of Hilbert space".

An earlier reviewer said that the book provides a solution to three of the most important problems in science: (1) Time's arrow. (2) The measurement problem in QM. (3) The existence of freewill. Precisely, I am working in those and other questions, and I do not believe that claim was completely correct (and perhaps Prigogine believed the same, because in his last communication, said me "The questions that you ask are very difficult."). In my opinion, the novel theory is conflictive both in mathematical and physical details, but I consider that, at least, the aim of the School is correct one. Irreversibility and uncertainty are two fundamental features of our universe. I see that orthodox physics (including particle physics and the so-called String-M theory) is incorrect and/or inapplicable. I believe that, whereas other "popular" books (The Quark and The Jaguar, The Elegant Universe, etc.) should be "relics" in 21st century physics, Prigogine's book will be then a basic work.

The contributions of Prigogine's physics to the understanding in other disciplines, as chemistry, are not clear. In fact, I believe that the impact of recent Prigogine's ideas into fundamental chemistry has been "insignificant", because his revolutionaries ideas in physics are an outcome of their previous chemical investigations (Nobel Prize for Chemistry). For example, in his complex spectral theory, energy is an imaginary quantity, and this is in direct conflict with standard quantum theory postulates. However, in theoretical chemistry, one always defines a transition state by means of an imaginary frequency. As said Prigogine in a recent Solvay conference, "all of Chemistry deals with irreversible processes". I cannot say the same of physics.

The book is very good one, but I disagree in one point. When one writes a scientific paper for publication in a specialized journal (as Physical Review), one can write about everything. Referees and other scientist can either accept or reject your work in scientific grounds. When one writes a popular book for non-expertises, one must be the most "neutral" possible. If this is not possible, one must to "alert" to the reader. This book is not neutral and, in some restricted sense, shows several theories and ideas as been of broad acceptance or current use in science. Of course, this overemphasizes the scientific status of the so-called Brussels School and minimizes the importance of other interesting points of view. In my opinion, this is not a correct attitude. For example, the "diagrammatic" method developed by Brussels School in the 60's (and illustrated in the book) is broadly not used by scientific community. See, for example, "Nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics" by Robert Zwanzig for a view in more standard formalisms. In addition, I also must say that some previous Prigogine's ideas in dissipative structures, kinetic potentials, etc. are not standard, and other, as the "universal" criterion of evolution (following production of entropy), was experimentally shown to be false. Of course, other contributions of called Brussels School are simply impressive, for example the extension of scattering theory of particle physics to more general situations of chemical kinetics. Effectively, you have read fine, orthodox S-matrix of "fundamental" physics can be derived as an idealized asymptotic version valid for typical accelerator experiments! I am sorry, but I must said that Chemistry is not applied QED.

Conclusion: The book describes an excellent philosophical view in a "new" physics, and for this reason it may be a central piece on your collection. Nevertheless, I consider that the scientific way proposed is a little conflictive and some mathematics may be modified!

All of this has been said before
If you want a simple, elegant, responsible, well-informed book on the origin of the macroscopic arrow of time and on how time-revesibility at the microscopic level resolves many of the quantum paradoxes, read Physics Prof. Victor Stenger's "Timeless Reality". You will get much more out of it.

A Crucial Piece of the Puzzle
Many people presume that the integration of various domains of science into a single unified "superscience" will ultimately show that everything reduces to physics. In fact, one earlier reviewer of "The End of Certainty" closed his review saying, "Biology is, in the end, physics."

There is a way in which biology could be "reduced" to physics, but only if we learn to define "physics" very differently than we do today. Prigogine shows why biology CANNOT be reduced to context-independent, deterministic contemporary physics. (Read Robert Rosen's "Essays on Life Itself" for the most profound and fundamental explanation, based on non-integrable, complex, "impredicative loops of efficient causation".)

"The End of Certainty" is an important work because it points toward a revolutionary realignment of fundamental physical principles, theoretical perspectives, and even scientific methodology. In fact, it draws together many of the crucial elements that ultimately will result in the inevitable emergence of a fundamentally transformed model of scientific epistemology. It's an important snapshot of a pivotal stage in the evolution of scientific knowledge.

There has not been a coherent major shift in the foundational paradigms of physical science since the emergence of relativity and quantum physics in the early 20th century. The pioneers of those physical models, if not the models themselves, behaved as feuding brothers from the start. That disputatious relationship is perhaps best typified by Einstein's famous rebuke of the indeterminacy of quantum physics: "God does not play dice with the universe."

As usual, the enhanced perspective offered by an additional century of scientific enterprise shows us that neither side in the quantum dispute had an exclusive lock on the truth. If nothing else, Prigogine's work is a masterfully conceived reminder that we are fortunate to live in a time when a vastly larger shift in scientific world-view is imminent.

This book's importance derives from its elegant (though highly technical) presentation of so many of the founding elements of what Erwin Schrödinger predicted would constitute a "new type of physical law". In fact, the controversy between Einstein's perspective and the views of quantum physicists like Schrödinger-a controversy that once commanded so much attention-has faded into an historical amusement. Instead, our advantage in standing on their shoulders is that, with the benefit of teachers like Ilya Prigogine, we can see beyond their semantic squabbles. It turns out that their views were congruent in at least one significant respect: both Einstein and Schrödinger knew that contemporary physics is inadequate to explain more complex phenomena...like biological life.

That congruence is obvious in comparing Schrödinger's statement-"We must be prepared to find a new type of physical law prevailing in (the structure of living matter)."-with Einstein's equivalent assertion-"One can best feel in dealing with living things how primitive physics still is." Their scientific integrity and humbling lack of intellectual arrogance put all of contemporary physics on notice to expect the revolution whose epistemological lineage runs straight through Prigogine, who drops the other shoe in "The End of Certainty" when he irrevocably shatters the myth of time-reversible real-world processes. In doing so, he permanently exorcises "Laplace's demon", Pierre-Simon de Laplace's mythical entity that would be able, if physical processes were reversible and the precise position and momentum of every particle in the universe were known at any instant in time, to calculate the entire past history and future evolutionary state of the universe.

You'll sense the evolution of physics itself when Prigogine delivers some founding concepts of the new physics: time-irreversibility, far-from-equilibrium metastability, and the self-organizing nature of complex systems. He writes, "Once we include these concepts, we come to a new formulation of the laws of nature, one that is no longer built on certitudes, as is the case for deterministic laws, but rather on possibilities."

"The End of Certainty" is somewhat easier to assimilate than Prigogine's earlier works. Nevertheless, if you don't have a formal background in physics, you might find some parts of this book to be fairly rough going. Don't let that discourage you; focus on Chapter 1, Sections I through III. You'll find phenomenal insights there, like Prigogine's explanation of Henri Poincaré's proof that contemporary physics' belief in reversible, closed-system, deterministic modeling actually precludes the arrow of time, obviates self-organization, and prohibits the existence of life itself. In short, Prigogine shows that Poincaré proved that biology CANNOT be reduced to contemporary physics, and he even proved why (the existence of Poincaré resonances). It's an exquisitely beautiful insight.

"The End of Certainty" is not a deeply controversial book, at least not among credible scientific minds. Prigogine's work is revolutionary in many ways, but it is neither disputatious nor provocatively unorthodox. It's too rigorously tied to mainstream science to suffer the kind of rejection that a less credible or less elegantly constructed work would invite. Even if it is not fully understood by contemporary physicists, neither is it seriously challenged or disputed. His work is so overwhelmingly supported by empirical underpinnings as to be incontestable. The Nobel Prize committee concurred; as a Nobel Laureate for his work in dissipative systems, Prigogine is well respected in the world of cutting edge physics. He's the E.F. Hutton of the new physics; when he talks, serious scientists listen.

A final word: Don't sweat it if you're intimidated by some of the mathematics and graphics in "The End of Certainty". Don't worry about what you might be missing if you don't assimilate every bit of it. I didn't have to get it all on the first reading, and neither do you. In fact, you don't need to understand any of the mathematics or geometry to get value out of the non-technical portions of the text, which constitute the majority of the book. The only prerequisites for getting value from this book are literacy, an open mind, moderate intelligence, and a burn to understand the natural world. If you qualify, you're in for an illuminating perspective when you read it. ... Read more

Book Description

Systems as diverse as clocks, singing crickets, cardiac pacemakers, firing neurons and applauding audiences exhibit a tendency to operate in synchrony. These phenomena are universal and can be understood within a common framework based on modern nonlinear dynamics. The first half of this book describes synchronization without formulae, and is based on qualitative intuitive ideas. The main effects are illustrated with experimental examples and figures, and the historical development is also outlined. The second half of the book presents the main effects of synchronization in a rigorous and systematic manner, describing both classical results on synchronization of periodic oscillators, and recent developments in chaotic systems, large ensembles, and oscillatory media. ... Read more

Book Description

This is the only book that introduces the full range of activity in the rapidly growing field of nonlinear dynamics to an audience of students, scientists, and engineers with no in-depth experience in the area.The text uses a step-by-step explanation of dynamics and geometry in state space as a foundation for understanding nonlinear dynamics.It goes on to provide a thorough treatment of such key topics as differential equation models and iterated map models (including a derivation of the famous Feigenbaum numbers), the surprising role of number theory in dynamics, and an introduction to Hamiltonian dynamics. This is the only book written at this introductory level to include the increasingly important field of pattern formation, along with a survey of the controversial questions of quantum chaos.Important analytical tools, such as Lyapunov exponents, Kolmogorov entropies, and fractal dimensions, are treated in detail.With over 200 figures and diagrams, and both analytic and computer exercises following every chapter, the book is ideally suited for use as a text or for self-instruction.An extensive collection of annotated references brings the reader into contact with the literature in nonlinear dynamics, which the reader will be prepared to tackle after completing the book. ... Read more

Reviews (3)

A excellent introduction to chaos
This is an accessible and readable introductory textbook on chaos and nonlinear dynamics. It focuses on the ideas behind the theory of chaos, rather than on the details of the mathematics which can sometimes hinder rather than help the reader gain real insight into the mechanisms of nonlinear systems.

By this I do not mean that the author skips over the required mathematics. The text is intended for people with a solid background in differential equations, and some familiarity with classical dynamical systems is also helpful if not completely necessary. I would say it is targeted for advanced undergraduate or beginning graduate students in the mathematical sciences, as well as scientists/engineers with no background in chaos theory. However he does not get bogged down in mathematics at the expense of physical insight. I have been studying the book on my own and have run into few problems in understanding the explanations.

The first chapter goes over 3 chaotic systems as a practical way of introducing the reader to various features of such systems. This provides a basis of practical experience to draw upon for the rest of the book, where the principles of chaos are examined in greater detail. The extensive references given in the book are a valuable addition that can be used to further explore the scientific literature. The references include journal papers as well as books, articles, and software for dynamical systems.

If you have the requisite mathematical background and want to learn the basics of chaos and nonlinear dynamics, I highly recommend this book.

fundamental, systematic
If you are looking for a textbook or reference on chaos theory, I recommend you to buy this book.

If you read other books, you will eventually comment,'chaos is something related to mathematics, very abstract, has nothing to do with my messy bedroom...'

But if you read this book, you will scream,'Great! I have figured out the richness of the nonlinear world. I understand the different dynamical routes to chaos. I know different quantifying methods with their pros and cons. Most fascinating is that chaos is related to pattern formation and self organization, which I consider them as another field of knowledge before. Also chaos may provide a new approach to quantum mechanics, a good news for those including me who do not believe in the parallel universe interpretation. By the way, I learnt a lot from this book!'

Good book!
If you want to get on into chaos, just read this book. I especially like the very wide scope of the subjects considered and the insight provided by the author in pattern formation or quantum chaos. ... Read more

Book Description

This book develops a clear and systematic treatment of time series of data, regular and chaotic, that one finds in observations of nonlinear systems. The reader is led from measurements of one or more variables through the steps of building models of the source as a dynamical system, classifying the source by its dynamical characteristics, and finally predicting and controlling the dynamical system. The text examines methods for separating the signal of physical interest from contamination by unwanted noise, and for investigating the phase space of the chaotic signal and its properties. The emphasis throughout is on the use of the modern mathematical tools for investigating chaotic behavior to uncover properties of physical systems. The methods require knowledge of dynamical systems at the advanced undergraduate level and some knowledge of Fourier transforms and other signal processing methods. The toolkit developed in the book will provide the reader with efficient and effective methods for analyzing signals from nonlinear sources; these methods are applicable to problems of control, communication, and prediction in a wide variety of systems encountered in physics, chemistry, biology, and geophysics. ... Read more

Reviews (1)

Simply pure scientific writing
It's probably the best-written book i've read so far: it's what i call scientific writing. No approximate statement, every concept is provided with a discussion of what it can be used for and what it cannot. There is no tedious statement like the one you see in many science books where the theory is simply given without any mention of the underlying hypothesis making it useless in practice...time series analysts should know what i'm talking about...

Of course, reading this book when you don't have any interest in time series analysis is probably a bad idea since you need quite a strong background in classical time series analysis techniques (time as well as frequency domain). ... Read more

Book Description

This new edition of Mathematics for Dynamic Modeling updates a widely used and highly-respected textbook. The text is appropriate for upper-level undergraduate and graduate level courses in modeling, dynamical systems, differential equations, and linear multivariable systems offered in a variety of departments including mathematics, engineering, computer science, and economics. The text features many different realistic applications from a wide variety of disciplines.
The book covers important tools such as linearization, feedback concepts, the use of Liapunov functions, and optimal control. This new edition is a valuable tool for understanding and teaching a rapidly growing field. Practitioners and researchers may also find this book of interest.

* Contains a new chapter on stability of dynamic models
* Covers many realistic applications from a wide variety of fields in an accessible manner
* Provides a broad introduction to the full scope of dynamical systems
* Incorporates new developments such as new models for chemical reactions and autocatalysis
* Integrates MATLAB throughout the text in both examples and illustrations
* Includes a new introduction to nonlinear differential equations ... Read more

Reviews (1)

more modeling concepts
This is not a new cover on an older book. Having enjoyed Beltrami's first book I was glad to see a second. The new continues the subject of modeling not math. Well written, the author's book ties the conceptual difficulites of the subjects with the necessary math to get the point accross and guide the reader to new frontiers of insight again in the sense of the physical model not the math. This is a very important point! One does not lose sight of the over-all objective as with some math intensive proof types. The beauty of the work is getting the necessary across with the least. One disappointment though. The book was to short. I hope the author continues another work. Perhaps some more indepth of previous covered material. All examples and problems are easily solved in Mathcad, which already has the depth but sometimes not the explanation. ... Read more

Reviews (11)

The best!
This is the most understandable book in chaos theory I have read. It clearly explains the theory and the tools to understand it. I have read several books and papers but this is the one I like the most. If you are interested in Chaos theory try this book first and then read other technical stuff.

Good introduction on chaos theory
Very accessible introduction on chaos theory. Style is informal and nontechnical. You're not required to have a particular background in mathematics to understand the content. Reading it is particularly easy, and it provides excellent pointers to more advanced topics on chaos theory.

If you already have some background in dynamic systems and modeling, i would recommend Morrison's book : "The Art of Modeling Dynamic Systems : Forecasting for Chaos, Randomness, and Determinism" which is somewhat more technical but certainly more helpful for getting a good idea of what chaos theory is, at an engineering point of view.

In addition, for getting a very broad view of chaos in the real world, Schroeder's "Fractals, Chaos, Power laws: Minutes from an Infinite Paradise" is incomparable ! It overwhelms you with the footprints of chaos in every possible context. A must-read ! But very technical and requires some important knowledge in physics and science engineering...

However, as an easy nontechnical introduction on chaos theory, this book really deserves its 5 stars !

One of Many
This book is one of many of the science for the general interest reader.

beginner's choice
Very easy to read. It is an excellent tool to readers that want a first contact with chaos theory. The math is very simple and even if you are rusty or need some basic theory the book has 7 chapters to reinforced you. If by chance you don't understand this tools then probably chaos theory is not for you.

not for the beginer
after reading other users reviews i was under the impression that this book would be a fairly easy read, explaining what chaos is in laymens terms. not so.
the first 9 chapters are devoted to giving you the mathematical tools you need to understand the later chapters. if you have ever tried to learn math out of a book by yourself and failed miserably, you know its no fun.
unfortunatly, if you dont understadn the math tools, you wont really understadn the rest of the book.
so if you are a layman like me, find something easier ... Read more

Book Description

Unique in that it focuses on formulation and case studies rather than solutions procedures covering applications for pure, generalized and integer networks, equivalent formulations plus successful techniques of network models. Every chapter contains a simple model which is expanded to handle more complicated developments, a synopsis of existing applications, one or more case studies, at least 20 exercises and invaluable references. ... Read more

Reviews (1)

A practical, how-to tutorial on network flow modeling
This is the only book I have encountered that is devoted exclusively to the design of network optimization models. Written in a tutorial style, starting with the fundamentals, and illustrated with an enormous number ofexamples, it shows in great detail how to build network flow models forreal decision problems. Although solution algorithms are not covered, perse, the user learns to build models for optimizing a wide range of decisionsituations, from production and logistics systems to personnel andportfolio planning. There is plenty of software around to implement theformulations described. I have used this book in conjunction with mynetwork optimization course, and the modeling exercises (at the end of eachchapter) are the student's favorite part of thisotherwise-algorithm-oriented course. While the general reader is not giventhe solution to the exercises (a solution manual is available to adoptinginstructors), this does not take away from the enjoyment and insightgleaned by the reader of this highly accessible guide. ... Read more

Book Description

The book presents the methodology applicable to the modeling and analysis of a variety of dynamic systems, regardless of their physical origin. It includes detailed modeling of mechanical, electrical, electro-mechanical, thermal, and fluid systems. Models are developed in the form of state-variable equations, input-output differential equations, transfer functions, and block diagrams. The Laplace-transform is used for analytical solutions. Computer solutions are based on MATLAB and Simulink. ... Read more

Reviews (1)

A good introduction to the subject
Professional engineering these days strongly rely on accurate mathematical modelling of systems. This book is a good introduction to the subject without loosing the link to the numeral solving techniques. Advanced mathematical equations are omitted so this text will serve only as an introduction and not as a complete treatment. Nevertheless, it is a good book when starting to study mathematical modelling of physical systems. ... Read more

Book Description

An understanding of the changing relationships within systems is an integral part of the study of a variety of disciplines. The second edition of Dynamic Modeling gives a thorough introduction to modeling by teaching the reader both to build and to use a wide range of models, including those for biological, physical, social and economic systems. In conjunction with STELLA software provided with the book, the reader has an easy-to-use tool to visualize all types of dynamic systems.

Even more examples of theory and applications from the modeling community have been added to the second edition. For example, the authors have expanded their treatment of population cohort models and then applied it to the dynamics of the U.S. population. They have enriched the discussion of positive feedbacks, enlarged the section on genetics, and provided more applications to the study of diseases. The economics section of the book includes models from game theory and market dynamics that result from the combined effects of inventory changes and producer expectations. The set of engineering models of gravity and acceleration also includes examples of mechanical amplifiers, which are illustrated by the workings of a playground swing. With each model discussed, the book emphasizes the need to learn the concepts and tools of the model for the purpose of generating new insights, streamlining the problem-solving process, and fostering creative thinking and modeling in other areas in inquiry as well.

In addition to the new topics, many chapters have been revised and updated to make more extensive use of new model-development features of STELLA. All models and a run-time version of the STELLA software are included with the book on a CD-ROM, which is compatible with both Macintosh and Windows platforms.

From a review of first edition: "[The authors] demonstrate convincingly that given the appropriate software, such as the STELLA II provided on the accompanying disks, one can learn a lot about building and experimenting with and simulating dynamic models in a number of fields ... Highly recommended for all studying model building and practical applications of systems theory." - Choice ... Read more

Reviews (3)

Dynamic Modeling, Second Edition
This is an excellent book for beginning and intermediate modelers. I found it to be engaging, practical, and easy to understand. Dynamic modeling has become an essential tool to facilitate understanding developments in our increasingly complex and interdependent world, to communicate ideas across disciplinary boundaries, and to help solve problems. This book is a great place to begin. It offers a hands-on introduction to dynamic modeling.

The authors start with an easy to understand, step-by-step description of the modeling process, key principles of modeling, and general methods of modeling. This is followed-up with and numerous examples from chemistry, genetics, ecology, economics, and engineering. But this is not just a book to read. The book comes with run-time versions of the easy to learn STELLA and Madonna software as well as copies of the various models developed in each of the 37 chapters.

The authors encourage readers to build the models themselves as they work through the chapters, and then explore the dynamics by experimenting with the models. This is an active, fun way to learn. It definitely helped me to expand my systems thinking capability. Although my substantive interest is organizations, I learned a great deal by analogy from working through models of problems from other disciplines. Basic systems principles apply across disciplines, and useful insights can be gleaned from recognizing similar dynamic structures underlying different systems.

I particularly liked the instruction by example that is used throughout this book. I learned so much from this book because the reading and modeling, modeling and reading formed a positive feedback loop. The reading provided direction and engaged me in the modeling, and the modeling clarified and reinforced the concepts in the reading. Drawing from my experience with this book, I think it is ideal for those who are just getting started in dynamic modeling or have been learning for several years but want to sharpen and expand their systems thinking and modeling skills.

Great blend of concept and practice
I have been involved in static data modeling as part of database design throughout my career, and because of that know very well that to really learn how to model, you have to do more than listen to lectures or read a text. This book, along with the accompanying STELLA modeling tool, is an excellent blend of concept and practice.

The book begins with a short tutorial of the STELLA tool, a run-time version of which is included. (STELLA is very easy to use, and although the math underlying it relies heavily on differential equations, the user can be completely removed from that and still model effectively.) The early chapters gradually develop an understanding of dynamic modeling by building on basic concepts. The following chapters work through models in various areas, such as genetics, economics, and ecology, and provide exposure to modeling in these disciplines, as well as introducing some very interesting aspects of models, such as chaos, randomness, and non-predictable results.

By way of introduction to modeling concepts, case studies are presented clearly and concisely. These are followed by an explanation of a basic model of the system being examined. There are always additional questions that lead to expansion of the ideas being presented, so that the reader can increase their understanding and have opportunities to practice the skills presented.

I used this book for a course in Dynamic Modeling, and found it to be great in presenting the basic concepts of dynamic modeling and in developing a heightened awareness that any system being studied is really a dynamic process. It took this understanding to the next step and showed how to model that process and how to run the model and watch the dynamics in action, while honing the skills of analyzing, refining, and looking for trends and unanticipated results. The book opened up a whole new way of viewing systems for me.

Stimualting book for those interested in System Dynamics
The book is extremely well written and is so far the best attempt by any author(s)to achieve the right mix of theory and practice in the field of system dynamics. The organization of contents of the book is unique and it highlights the potential use of system dynamics principles for modeling a variety of hydro, ecological, environmental and engineered systems. The principles of system dynamics modeling and the complexities of physical systems are clearly explained by the authors and real-world examples from a number of disciplines are provided. Modelers can benefit from the actual code/examples from the simulation modeling environment, STELLA. The book includes a CD-ROM with all the examples/models discussed in the text to enhance the learning experience of modelers. ... Read more

Book Description

In a stochastic network, such as those in computer/telecommunications and manufacturing, discrete units move among a network of stations where they are processed or served. Randomness may occur in the servicing and routing of units, and there may be queueing for services. This book describes several basic stochastic network processes, beginning with Jackson networks and ending with spatial queueing systems in which units, such as cellular phones, move in a space or region where they are served. The focus is on network processes that have tractable (closed-form) expressions for the equilibrium probability distribution of the numbers of units at the stations. These distributions yield network performance parameters such as expectations of throughputs, delays, costs, and travel times. The book is intended for graduate students and researchers in engineering, science and mathematics interested in the basics of stochastic networks that have been developed over the last!twenty years. Assuming a graduate course in stochastic processes without measure theory, the emphasis is on multi-dimensional Markov processes. There is also some self-contained material on point processes involving real analysis. The book also contains rather complete introductions to reversible Markov processes, Palm probabilities for stationary systems, Little laws for queueing systems and space-time Poisson processes. This material is used in describing reversible networks, waiting times at stations, travel times and space-time flows in networks. ... Read more

Reviews (2)

A good book, but not the best reference
Software Inspection by Gilb covers the subject a lot better. However, Freedman and Weinberg's book has a lot of good points on group dynamics and politics and such that Gilb doesn't get into. Freedman's book is a quick read too.

The Question-Answer format makes this title a poor pick.
Having launced a comprehensive software review & inspection process for several major corporations, most recently United Airlines, I found this particular book confusing and almost impossible as a ready reference or resource. The question-answer format provides information based on the questions the author believes you should ask, and makes referencing for specific information frustrating and time-consuming, if not impossible. The examples are elementary and lack significant value. A far better resource is "Software Inspection," by Gilb and Graham; Addison-Wesley publishers. ... Read more

Book Description

The rapid evolution of computing, communication, and sensor technologies has brought about the proliferation of `new' dynamic systems, mostly technological and often highly complex. Examples are all around us: computer and communication networks; automated manufacturing systems; air traffic control systems; and distributed software systems. The `activity' in these systems is governed by operational rules designed by humans; their dynamics are therefore characterized by asynchronous occurrences of discrete events. These features lend themselves to the term discrete event system for this class of dynamic systems.A substantial portion of this book is a revised version of Discrete Event Systems: Modeling and Performance Analysis (1993), written by the first author and recipient of the 1999 International Federation of Automatic Control Triennial Control Engineering Textbook Prize. This new expanded book is intended to be a comprehensive introduction to the field of discrete event systems, emphasizing breadth of coverage and accessibility of the material to readers with possibly different backgrounds. Its key feature is the emphasis placed on a unified modeling framework that transcends specific application areas and allows linking of the following topics in a coherent manner: language and automata theory, supervisory control, Petri net theory, (max,+) algebra, Markov chains and queueing theory, discrete-event simulation, perturbation analysis, and concurrent estimation techniques. Until now, these topics had been treated in separate books or in the research literature only.Introduction to Discrete Event Systems is written as a textbook for courses at the senior undergraduate level or the first-year graduate level. It will be of interest to students in a variety of disciplines where the study of discrete event systems is relevant: control, communications, computer engineering, computer science, manufacturing engineering, operations research, and industrial engineering. ... Read more

Reviews (1)

Introduction to discrete event systems
This book is a great textbook for students who are interested in the control engineering field. Due to the difficulty, it is more focused for graduate students. This book has won the 1999 harold chestnut prize awarded by the International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC). The topics are language and automata theory, supervisory control, Petri net theory, (max,+) algebra, Markov chains and queueing theory, discrete-event simulation, perturbation analysis, and concurrent estimation techniques. This book is used in many universities in the US but also in countries like Korea as well. ... Read more

Book Description

If you have ever felt your life was out of control and headed toward chaos,science has an important message: Life is chaos, and that's a very exciting thing!

In this eye-opening book, John Briggs and F. David Peat reveal sevenenlightening lessons for embracing the chaos of daily life.

Be Creative:
engage with chaos to find imaginative new solutions and live more dynamically

Use Butterfly Power:
let chaos grow local efforts into global results

Go With the Flow:
use chaos to work collectively with others

Explore What's Between:
discover life's rich subtleties and avoid the traps of stereotypes

See the Art of the World:
appreciate the beauty of life's chaos

Live Within Time:
utilize time's hidden depths

Rejoin the Whole:
realize our fractal connectedness to each other and the world

Life is impossible to control--instead of fighting this truth, Seven Life Lessons of Chaos shows you how to accept, celebrate, and use it to live life to its fullest.

Reviews (9)

Amazing book
I found this book to reverse every mental polarity in me, as if I had been pulled through infinity.

Too Bad
I was really hoping this would be a good one. It had all the right qualities to turn out a great piece of literature. Unfortunately, it ended up being an insight to the not-yet-matured mental ramblings of its authors. Briggs and Peat insult everything from mountain climbing to the Rennaissance to the Mendelbrot Set itself. Then they glorify things like the Dark Ages! The book seems to be a struggle to overcome a Kantian mindset, in which the authors present themselves as incoherent and more "searching" than their proposed audience. The only reason I've granted it two stars, is that perhaps it could serve as an introduction to Chaos Theory, or more likely the philosophical disease of Collectivism. To anyone with any knowledge of Chaos, on the other hand, this book will leave you frustrated when the authors continually misuse terms such as "feedback loop," or when they generalize with terms such as "scientists found..." or "researchers say..." but fail to cite specifics. This kind of circumlocution leaves me wishing I had gotten more out of the book, and even insulted by the book's presumption that I would overlook such emotive language. Read at your own risk! I advise something a little less societally degrading. Look for a book that will actually teach you something about this amazing scientific discovery without slandering its position in academia and your own life. Try "Chaos," by James Gleick.If you need something that brings philosophy into a revolutionary science, look for "The Dancing Wu-Li Masters," by Gary Zukav. It deals with quantum physics rather than Chaos Theory, but in a much more respectable way.

The Amazing Rose.
SEVEN LIFE LESSONS OF CHAOS : Spiritual Wisdom from The Science of Change. By John Briggs and F. David Peat. 207 pp. New York : HarperPerennial, 1999. 0-06-018246-6 (pbk.)

Writing in the thirteenth century, Japan's great Zen Master Dogen Zenji (1200-1253) told this little story :

"Long ago a monk asked an old master, "When hundreds, thousands, or myriads of objects come all at once, what should be done?" The master replied, "Don't try to control them." What he means is that in whatever way objects come, do not try to change them. Whatever comes is the buddha-dharma, not objects at all.... Even if you try to control what comes, it cannot be controlled" (trans. Ed Brown and Kazuaki Tanahashi, 'Moon in a Dewdrop,' p.164).

All our life is spent trying to make things happen. Nice things, to us. But how often do we succeed ? Isn't it the case that we almost always fail ? And given the enormous effort that we all put into trying to make nice things happen, isn't it puzzling that we so very rarely succeed ?

Could it be that our constant failures hold a message for us ? Could it be that we cannot in fact make things happen ? And if this is so, why is it so ?

Is it because that behind any event there are so many causes that we could never hope to have personally generated more than a few? And that those few are not enough to nudge an event in the precise direction we would like it to take ? A happy direction, and one that will bring good things to us ?

Rather than desperately trying to make things happen, wouldn't it be wiser to shift into alignment with the one big thing that is happening all around, letting it lead us along through the good and the bad, no longer struggling but calmly being guided, so that the event may unfold, naturally, like a Rose ?

If you are still with me and haven't yet read Briggs and Peat's marvelous and inspiring book on Chaos as the unfoldment of the Amazing Rose that is the Universe, and how best to play one's role within that ongoing unfoldment, I'd suggest that you get your nose into it now. The fantastic news it brings was brought for you.

The power to change our worldview
Briggs and Peats accomplish something truly extraordinary. They make clear to us, with the help of Chaos theory, to what extent our Western worldview dominates and distorts our take on or sense of reality. They trace the history of Western thought from the Renaissance to the present and demonstrate how this mechanistic worldview has led to a severe distortion not only of our own sense of self, but of the true nature of our planet and the all life forms it supports.

Without attempting to replace one belief system with another and without telling us what to do, they leave us with a clear sense that the relativism of the post post-modern world is nothing but a misunderstanding of the nature all worldviews:

They are basically theories, and as such, they are provisional in nature and self-destruct eventually because they get stuck and cannot be updated anymore, no matter how hard we try. We have reached that point - a point that does not signal the end of history but rather the beginning of a new chapter.

But can it explain synchronicity ??
Here we get a better glimpse at infinity, the living interconnectedness of our universe, and chaos theory. Entering into this chaos we have creative moments. The authors take an in depth look at the creative mind. The problem with our modern western minds is that they are dualistic and mechanistic. "Lo! Men have become tools of their tools!" With chaos comes wholeness, and we need not restrict things into dualities and put power above all weaker things. We need see that systems are complex and simplistic at the same time through chaos, and that every action is connected to everything. 'The Butterfly Effect' The Earth, let's call her Gaia, is a living ecosystem and organism. We can look at the cell as its microcosm. Because of missing information, we never fully understand things, and therefore should not mechanise them to our satisfaction. We shouldn' t view everything as linear. This includes time. Those moments where time stands still---they explore the realms of the possibility of fractal time planes, as opposed to a mere irreversable arrow. They want the mystery of contemplating the great unknown restored in our minds. This book will definitely supply you with a new mind expanding outlook and perspective on the world in which you live. ... Read more

Book Description

The purpose of science is to understand Reality. The ultimate goal and Holy Grail of physics is to understand everything by a single all-embracing principle called the Theory of Everything (TOE).

Jerry Davidson Wheatley has produced a scientific book that details how he found an excellent candidate for the Theory of Everything Equation: One that defies all other possibilities.

The book describes the Structure of Reality and how it leads to the Ultimate Principle. The principle explains the ultimate nature of space and time. It unifies the four forces of nature (gravitational, electromagnetic, weak and strong nuclear forces) and merges Relativity with Quantum Theory. It defines the nature of consciousness and experience and, in so doing, elucidates the idea of God and Creation. It scientifically explains the Bible and most religions.

It solves and explains the most vexing scientific and philosophical problems. It explains biological evolution in a nonreductionistic manner. It explains the Big Bang. It solves the logical dilemma left by Goedel's Incompleteness Theorems.

His book is a comprehensive scientific understanding of reality. Yet, no math skills are needed to understand it. Recommended for serious scientists and truth-seekers. ... Read more

Reviews (9)

Should be Required Reading for everyone
This book will change your life. You will never think the same way you did before reading it.
I have a degree in chemistry and I think this book should be read by everyone in the sciences. Without a doubt, the best book I've ever read. Why and what are two of our best friends

A Very Important Book
I must preface my review by stating