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| 21. Environmental Health and Safety Audits by Lawrence B. Cahill | |
![]() | list price: $115.00
our price: $115.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0865878250 Catlog: Book (2001-06-28) Publisher: Government Institutes Sales Rank: 94606 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description | |
| 22. The Complete Art of War (History and Warfare) by Sun-Tzu, Sun Pin, Ralph D. Sawyer, Mei-Chun Lee Sawyer | |
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our price: $23.10 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0813330858 Catlog: Book (1996-05-01) Publisher: HarperCollins Publishers Sales Rank: 16773 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description The Sun family writings on strategy have proven their value through the ages, and they continue to reward careful study. By unveiling the complex, often unexpected, interrelationships of armies locked in battle, they reveal the enduring principles of success in the struggle of life itself. With a practical index to the essential principles of strategy, and Ralph Sawyer's thoughtful chapter-by-chapter commentaries, The Complete Art of War is designed to bring the reader new insights into the nature of human conflict. Whether it is playing the game of politics or building a successful marriage, closing a deal or managing a large organization, making war or even making peace, The Complete Art of War stands as one of the ultimate guides to a deeper understanding of human affairs. Reviews (8)
"The Art of War" has been studied the world over by military, political and business leaders seeking to understand the nature of human conflict in all it's forms. Although thousands of years old, the teachings of Sun Tzu remain relevant even today. The maxims of Sun Tzu have been applied by students of "The Art of War" to such modern conflicts as the Korean and Vietnam Wars. Sun Tzu's teachings range from the seemingly simple, such as "Someone unfamiliar with the mountains and forests cannot advance the army", to the more complex and thought provoking, such as "In order await the disordered. In tranquility await the clamorous. This is the way to control the mind." The manual covers such diverse topics as training, supplies, terrain, the seasons and the use of spys, and includes detailed commentary by China's greatest military leaders through the centuries. "The Art of War" should be read by anyone who studies military history or strategy, and is part of the curriculum of many of the world's military academies. Studying the teachings of Sun Tzu can help you to form strategies for conflict resolution or negotiating in business, political or social endeavors through a greater understanding of human interaction.
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| 23. Telecom Crash Course by StevenShepard, Steven Shepard | |
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our price: $23.07 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0071382135 Catlog: Book (2001-10-25) Publisher: McGraw-Hill Professional Sales Rank: 39807 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Explore the vast telecom landscape -- from standards and protocols to premise, access and transport technologies. Far more than an acronym-studded quick fix, Telecom Crash Course is a true tutorial that offers you context, connections, and the wisdom to quickly grasp key technologies, including wireless Internet, optical networking, 3G, IP, protocol layer, PSTN, ATM, spread spectrum, GPRS, and SIP. Author Steven Shepard includes lively stories that deliver important points about the markets that drive the technologies. You get rigorous technical accuracy, with explanations of each technology's economic importance. Here’s your chance to decipher the alphabet soup of telecom acronyms -- not just what they stand for, but what they mean and how they can generate profits. Reviews (11)
Please, please, please do not let the bad reviews of this book discourage you from checking it out. I just finished reading the entire book, and wanted to log on to share my high opinion of it.
I purchased this book mostly to learn about telephony. I already know a lot about data networking, and I wanted to expand my knowledge of other aspects of telecom and optical WAN technologies like SONET and SDH. I knew I was in for trouble after reading about 50 pages. Have you ever read a technical book where you had a really hard time absorbing the info, even when you re-read the same paragraphs over and over again? Well, chances are it's not your fault, it's the author's! I can say this for sure about this book, b/c it described stuff that I already know about, and after reading it, I was more confused than before! Part of the problem is the author's complete lack of organizational logic. On page 2, he describes all of the "techno-jargon" that permeates the telecom industry, and "often gets in the way of the relatively straightforward task of learning how all this stuff actually works". I totally agree, jargon should not obfuscate. BUT, if you're going to point out this common pitfall, you best avoid it yourself, and Shepard does not! He's all over the board, dropping terms and concepts with little or no explanation. About 10 pages in, it's already a muddled mess. The mess gets worse. He discusses all of these different approaches to multiplexing, but doesn't take the time to explain what the basic process of multiplexing is all about until page 200! Throughout the entire book, he constantly refers to switching versus routing, but he doesn't explain the basic processes until the final 2 pages! These are just a couple examples that stuck out in my mind. To be sure, there is some useful information to be gleaned here, but it's hard to sort out from all the "noise". Shepard gets into way too much detail on certain subjects and not enough on others, without any discernable logic. For example, he spends several pages discussing how fiber cables are manufactured, but spends less than one page discussing the basic processes of routing and switching. However, given the topic of the book, isn't the latter subject a lot more applicable? As far as I know, telecom professionals don't need to make the actual fiber cables. This book is too technical for someone who doesn't know anything about telecom, and it's not practical enough for someone who knows a lot. If you're in between like me, you stand to gain a decent high-level overview of the industry, but the details are murky at best.
I won't say this book is worthless, because he does have a marketer's flair for making business sense of technology and predicting trends, and there is probably enough material here to fill a few good magazine articles. One of them, on the psychology of computer hacking (inserted in the middle of a discussion of the OSI protocol stack), unfortunately has nothing to do with telecom. Also, the mini-Esperanto/English dictionary is entertaining but probably should have been left for the author's web site. I mean, I agree that's funny, but there are those of us who paid for a book on telecom.
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| 24. Industrial Safety and Health Management, Fifth Edition by C. Ray Asfahl | |
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our price: $98.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0131423924 Catlog: Book (2003-07-21) Publisher: Prentice Hall Sales Rank: 458305 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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| 25. Microsoft Manual of Style for Technical Publications Third Edition by Microsoft Corporation, Microsoft Corporation | |
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our price: $19.79 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0735617465 Catlog: Book (2003-11-12) Publisher: Microsoft Press Sales Rank: 15328 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Reviews (30)
I needed this book years ago--now that I have it, I reach for it all the time. While I don't always follow its suggestions exactly, it offers me a non-trendy second opinion on technical style issues. Its straight A-Z dictionary format makes information easy to find, too. Perhaps a curious note of trivia is suitable here: the on-line help systems in many Microsoft products were not developed according to this style guide. This is unfortunate, as I find this style guide helps me write clear, approachable on-line help better than any other style guide I've seen.
Modestly informing its readers that only 17 heavily revised or new terms have been included in this publication, the new Microsoft Manual of Style for Technical Publications has nonetheless expanded its overall topic list by a total of 144 entries. This has increased the size of the book from the previous edition by 44 pages. Many outdated and unused terms have been taken out of the manual, only to be updated to include significant changes in Internet and browser terminology and usage. From a presentation standpoint, there are minor changes to the headings and body text. Of particular note however is the new alphabetical tabbing appearing on the outer edge of the document to help locate the topics. The index is structured to contain more subentry references as well. Gone however is Appendix C, the Words with Numbers section. As with the earlier edition of the manual, this copy contains a standard Windows Help system version of the book. To demonstrate support of its new HTML-based Help standard however, Microsoft has also enclosed the same information on an HTML Help system (what it refers to in the manual as an "electronic book"). For additional incentive, there is also an HTML Help version of the third edition of the Microsoft Press Computer Dictionary - another helpful resource. Be aware though that to view these HTML materials you need to use Internet Explorer 4.0 or later (also included on the companion CD). As more software development companies are designing applications that use browser technology or can be accessed via the Internet and World Wide Web, the new topic information this book contains is timely. Other new and enhanced terminology is also extremely beneficial. - Mike Donoghue, AMS Services (donoghmi@amsworld.com)
The previous edition had all subjects alphabetized, which has changed somewhat in this edition has changed that. The book's first part is devoted to alphabetized subjects (called the Usage Dictionary). However the book's first part is devoted to other writing topics, ones which the book's authors obviously felt deserved their own major sections. Subjects like "documenting the user interface," format and layout, global content, indexing, common style issues, grammar, and punctuation. All topics in the book's first part are discussed throughly. And topics not discussed in the first part are addressed alphabetically in Part 2 of the book titled the "Usage Dictionary." The book's Table of Contents lists each item in the Usage Dictionary for easy referral. I also liked how the authors recognized the changing world of documentation in the introduction where they point out how people using computers can be anyone from "home users," who use their computer for simple tasks, all the way to software developers, who produce programs for computers. While this is intended for writers documenting Windows software, it serves well on its own as an excellent style guide.
I'm not going to go to specify which entries Microsoft has updated for this edition...I'll simply say that I have yet to look for an entry that should be there that wasn't. It's exactly what you'd expect for a new edition...it seems to be thorough. What I did like is the book's new organization. It's divided into two sections: The Usage Dictionary is essentially just like the 2nd edition, with all the latest XP terms and stuff. It's what I expected to get when I purchased the book. The General Topics section is this volume's great improvement. Whereas topics like procedure guidelines, screen terminology, and grammatical suggestions were scattered throughout the 2nd edition (i.e., listed alphabetically) the editors realized that the 3rd edition would serve readers well if these types of entries had their own section. Consequently, the first 182 pages of the book contain chapters titled This first section is so good, in fact, that it should be considered standard reading for anyone who's going to be writing technical documents. It's comprehensive yet easy-to-read. The book also comes with a CD-ROM that contains electronic versions of the following: These e-books are not as convenient to use as the e-books that came with the 2nd edition (the new Style Manual e-book is just a big PDF), but they are nice resources to have...and I'll take what I can get. Certainly not a bad deal for the price.
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| 26. West With the Night by Beryl Markham | |
![]() | list price: $14.00
our price: $10.50 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0865471185 Catlog: Book (1983-05-01) Publisher: North Point Press Sales Rank: 3318 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Reviews (79)
Ms. Markham's inimitable flair for description and metaphor are enchantingly powerful. One could truly open the book to any random page and find a treasure. No previous knowledge of plot or precedence would be vital to the enjoyment. That such extraordinary prose also reveals an incredible life provides a rich dividend. Savor the following corsage randomly plucked from the bouquet: "Arab Ruta... is of the tribe that observes with equal respect the soft voice and the hardened hand, the fullness of a flower, the quick finality of death. His is the laughter of a free man happy at his work, a strong man with lust for living. He is not black. His skin holds the sheen and warmth of used copper. His eyes are dark and wide-spaced, his nose is full-boned and capable of arrogance. "He is arrogant now, swinging the propeller, laying his lean hands on the curved wood, feeling an exultant kinship in the coiled resistance to his thrust. "He swings hard. A splutter, a strangled cough from the engine like the premature stirring of a sleep-slugged labourer. In the cockpit I push gently on the throttle, easing it forward, rousing the motor, feeding it, soothing it." My first encounter with this charming book was accidental but fortuitous. I found the paperback in an airport bookstore, and stayed engrossed and enchanted by the lyrical meanderings for the entirety of my three-hour flight. A few years later I discovered the audio version which springs to an even greater life in the voice of Julie Harris. Her reading of the horse race that proved to be a watershed moment for Ms. Markham, still has the capacity to choke me to tears, though I have listened to it many times. A few reviewers here have given less than laudatory reviews. This book is absolutely among the top five I have ever read, and I must pity those unfortunate souls who are tone-deaf to the rhapsodic music playing among its pages. Never mind my glowing endorsement. Never mind that Ernest Hemmingway said that Beryl Markham "has written so well, and marvelously well, that I was completely ashamed of myself as a writer." Just find this book and open it randomly to any page. You will quickly discover that this book is an extraordinary encounter. Don't miss it!
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| 27. Technical Writing 101: A Real-World Guide to Planning and Writing Technical Documentation, Second Edition by Alan S. Pringle, Sarah S. O'Keefe | |
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our price: $35.95 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 097047332X Catlog: Book (2003-07) Publisher: Scriptorium Pr Sales Rank: 190281 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description This updated second edition features the latest information on single sourcing and a new chapter on how trends in structured authoring and Extensible Markup Language (XML) affect technical writers. | |
| 28. Forensic Pathology : Principles and Practice by David Dolinak, Evan Matshes, Emma O. Lew | |
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our price: $220.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0122199510 Catlog: Book (2005-04-20) Publisher: Academic Press Sales Rank: 365717 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description
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| 29. The History of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) (Prentice Hall Series in Geographic Information Science) by Timothy Foresman | |
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our price: $112.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0138621454 Catlog: Book (1997-11-10) Publisher: Prentice Hall PTR Sales Rank: 507555 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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| 30. The Chasm Companion : A Fieldbook to Crossing the Chasm and Inside the Tornado by Paul Wiefels | |
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our price: $16.97 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0066620554 Catlog: Book (2002-08-15) Publisher: HarperBusiness Sales Rank: 19603 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Amazon.com Reviews (4)
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| 31. Technical Writing: Principles, Strategies, and Readings (5th Edition) by Diana C. Reep | |
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our price: $80.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0321107586 Catlog: Book (2002-07-26) Publisher: Longman Sales Rank: 254991 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
Reviews (1)
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| 32. Engineering Documentation Control Handbook : Configuration Management for Industry by Frank B. Watts | |
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our price: $72.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0815514468 Catlog: Book (2000-03-01) Publisher: Noyes Publications Sales Rank: 174472 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Control of engineering documentation, sometimes called Configuration Management (CM) especially in the defense industries, is critical to world-class manufacturing survival. This new Second Edition of a highly successful engineering documentation handbook is one of the best blueprints for constructive, efficient EDC/CM ever published. Use the ENGINEERING DOCUMENTATION CONTROL HANDBOOK to get on track right away and make the release of new products and their documentation flow smoothly and easily. The book is packed with specific methods that can be applied quickly and accurately to almost any industry and any product to control documentation, request changes to the product, make those changes and develop bills of material. The result is a powerful communications bridge between engineering and "the rest of the world" that makes rapid changes in products and documentation possible. With the help of the simple techniques in the HANDBOOK, companies can gain and hold their competitive advantages in a world that demands flexibility and quick reflexes -- and has no sympathy for delays. The new edition contains substantial additions worked into the book and several new chapters. However, the thrust of the book retains the same focus on basics, rules and reasons. The author emphasizes that EDC or CM must be recognized as a key business strategy, and the days of "throwing it over the wall" are gone forever. Key Features: - Expanded case studies and actual experiences with consulting clients have been added - New chapter on Benchmarking/Surveys contains real-life results of several surveys conducted and analyzed by the author that allow you to compare your enterprise with those surveyed - Interchangeability and change cost sections have been substantially expanded and given separate chapters in recognition of their critical importance in the EDC strategy Reviews (3)
The text is crisp and the books organization clear and logical. One of the last chapters includes what is essentially a checklist of how to put together a CM system. This is not a one size fits all system. The user must use the material in the book as a guide to tailor a CM system to their company's requirements. Overall an indispensable book for someone trying to set up or overhaul a CM system. I highly recommend it. ... Read more | |
| 33. Technical Writing: Process and Product (4th Edition) by Sharon J. Gerson, Steven M. Gerson | |
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our price: $86.60 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0130981745 Catlog: Book (2002-05-07) Publisher: Prentice Hall Sales Rank: 67941 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Reviews (3)
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| 34. The Bomb : A Life, by Gerard J. DeGroot | |
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our price: $18.45 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0674017242 Catlog: Book (2005-03-31) Publisher: Harvard University Press Sales Rank: 13014 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Bombs are as old as hatred itself. But it was the twentieth century--one hundred years of incredible scientific progress and terrible war--that brought forth the Big One, the Bomb, humanity's most powerful and destructive invention. In The Bomb: A Life, Gerard DeGroot tells the story of this once unimaginable weapon that--at least since 8:16 a.m. on August 6, 1945--has haunted our dreams and threatened our existence. The Bomb has killed hundreds of thousands outright, condemned many more to lingering deaths, and made vast tracts of land unfit for life. For decades it dominated the psyches of millions, becoming a touchstone of popular culture, celebrated or decried in mass political movements, films, songs, and books. DeGroot traces the life of the Bomb from its birth in turn-of-the-century physics labs of Europe to a childhood in the New Mexico desert of the 1940s, from adolescence and early adulthood in Nagasaki and Bikini, Australia and Kazakhstan to maturity in test sites and missile silos around the globe. His book portrays the Bomb's short but significant existence in all its scope, providing us with a portrait of the times and the people--from Oppenheimer to Sakharov, Stalin to Reagan--whose legacy still shapes our world. | |
| 35. Masters of Chaos: The Secret History of the Special Forces by Linda Robinson | |
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our price: $16.17 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 1586482491 Catlog: Book (2004-10-30) Publisher: PublicAffairs Sales Rank: 515 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Special Forces soldiers are daring, seasoned troops from America's heartland, selected in a tough competition and trained in an extraordinary range of skills. They know foreign languages and cultures and unconventional warfare better than any U.S. fighters, and while they prefer to stay out of the limelight, veteran war correspondent Linda Robinson gained access to their closed world. She traveled with them on the frontlines, interviewed them at length on their home bases, and studied their doctrine, methods and history. In Masters of Chaos she tells their story through a select group of senior sergeants and field-grade officers, a band of unforgettable characters like Rawhide, Killer, Michael T, and Alan -- led by the unflappable Lt. Col. Chris Conner and Col. Charlie Cleveland, a brilliant but self-effacing West Pointer who led the largest unconventional war campaign since Vietnam in northern Iraq. Robinson follows the Special Forces from their first post-Vietnam combat in Panama, El Salvador, Desert Storm, Somalia, and the Balkans to their recent trials and triumphs in Afghanistan and Iraq. She witnessed their secret sleuthing and unsung successes in southern Iraq, and recounts here for the first time the dramatic firefights of the western desert. Her blow-by-blow story of the attack on Ansar al-Islam's international terrorist training camp has never been told before. The most comprehensive account ever of the modern-day Special Forces in action, Masters of Chaos is filled with riveting, intimate detail in the words of a close-knit band of soldiers who have done it all. AUTHOR BIO: Linda Robinson is a senior writer for U.S. News & World Report. She was a Nieman fellow at Harvard University in 2000-2001 and in 1999 she received the Maria Moors Cabot prize form Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism. She has covered numerous wars, guerrilla conflicts and special forces operations, and currently lives in Washington, D.C. | |
| 36. Quick Selection Guide to Chemical Protective Clothing, Fourth Edition by KristerForsberg, S. Z.Mansdorf | |
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our price: $47.95 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0471271055 Catlog: Book (2003-01-24) Publisher: Wiley Sales Rank: 222852 US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description The Quick Selection Guide to Chemical Protective Clothing, Fourth Edition is an essential field guide for spill responders, safety engineers, industrial hygienists, chemists and chemical engineers, purchase agents, sales people, and workers in all industries. | |
| 37. Handbook of Nanoscience, Engineering, and Technology by Donald Brenner, Sergey Lyshevski, Gerald Iafrate, William A. Goddard III | |
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our price: $149.95 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0849312000 Catlog: Book (2002-10-29) Publisher: CRC Press Sales Rank: 769208 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Reviews (1)
This book hopes to dispell that by presenting a solid survey of the field. It does require a fairly high technical level in the reader, concentrated in engineering. This may be a good sign. Things are not relegated to pure research. Indeed, several chapters discuss possible biotech and molecular electronics applications. Though you should be warned that these might be harder to build than expressed in the confident tone of some authors. Some readers may see parallels to a description of the semiconductor industry circa 1955, when some devices had been built, but the full potential was only just being suspected. If so, perhaps all the more reason for you to go into nanotech, using this book as one of your guides. ... Read more | |
| 38. Franklin Covey Style Guide for Business and Technical Communication by Franklin Covey, Frankin Covey Company Staff | |
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our price: $32.97 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 1883219825 Catlog: Book (2000-06-01) Publisher: Franklin Quest Co Sales Rank: 22899 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
Reviews (6)
This is was too weird for me. This is not my idea of customer service! Stephen Johnson
It is easy to understand, has great examples, covers all imaginable aspects of written communication, and - the best - it comes with exhaustive coverage on a CD. Finally, it is definitely the best bank for your buck!
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| 39. Applied Fluid Mechanics (5th Edition) by Robert L. Mott | |
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our price: $119.00 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0130231207 Catlog: Book (1999-11-09) Publisher: Prentice Hall Sales Rank: 165596 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Reviews (3)
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| 40. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future by Edward Cornish | |
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our price: $25.46 (price subject to change: see help) Asin: 0930242572 Catlog: Book (2004-04-01) Publisher: World Future Society Sales Rank: 138483 Average Customer Review: US | Canada | United Kingdom | Germany | France | Japan |
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Book Description Since the future is hurtling toward us at breakneck speed, foresight is the great need of our times. We must think ahead if we are to cope with the hurricane-force changes now bashing at every aspect of our lives. This acceleration of change brings enormous opportunities as well as great dangers. Most of us know better than to drive down a highway at eighty miles an hour without looking at the road ahead. But when it comes to steering our careers and businesses, we hardly ever consider whats coming toward us. We often wind up in a nasty "crash" that we could have avoided if we had better anticipated possible developments. This is where futuring can help. Futuring is the art and science of exploring the future. It offers methods and techniques that can help you understand trends, identify opportunities and avoid dangers. Futuring can help you understand possible future developments, make better decisions, develop worthwhile goals, and find the means to achieve them. Futuring is a powerful way to help you and your organization to create a better future. Virtually anyone can benefit from learning the skills and perspectives of futuring: Futuring will open your eyes to the world of the future and how you can prepare for the opportunities and risks ahead. In addition, Futuring will guide you through the history of serious thinking about the future, including the development of the idea of progress in the seventeenth century to the disillusionment with progress that came in the twentieth century. You will learn how far-sighted military planners, trend-watchers in business, and scholars in think tanks developed ways to think scientifically about the future so that leaders in government and business could prepare for the opportunities and risks ahead. Now you, too, can benefit from their discoveries. Reviews (1)
We tend to feel powerless and that we have little control over our future. Chance or even trivial events can have enormous consequences and the possibility that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could cause a tornado in Texas high lights the chaotic world we live in. The butterfly effect also highlights the enormous effect even our simple actions can make to the future. Once we recognize our power over the future, we have the responsibility to exercise that power as well as we can. We must seek to understand the possibilities of the future and how to work toward influencing events in a way that will be beneficial. Myriad potential futures lie before us; we can only imagine them and many lie beyond our wildest imagining. Reconstructing humanity's response to his environment and the astonishing number of ways in which different groups of people express themselves in language, music, art, objects of worship, food and housing would have been beyond our most creative brainstorming sessions. Yet each cultural pattern represents a series of choices that a given people has made during its social and cultural evolution. Each people has carved out a different destiny for itself. Likewise, we have enormous freedom to shape our lives. We must abandon the notion that we must have absolutely certain knowledge before we can act; we must base our actions on probabilities and highly uncertain knowledge. We need to train ourselves to think realistically and creatively about the future by simplifying complexities and imagining a much wider range of possibilities than we are in the habit of doing. The goal of futuring is not to predict the future but to improve it. We must try to prevent the crises of tomorrow so we can avoid disasters. We must mobilize people ahead of time through a democratic process whereby groups of people create their own vision of the future. Edward Lindaman saw how Kennedy's awe-inspiring vision of putting a man on the moon mobilized people to achieve a miracle and he organized citizen groups to create visions of desirable futures for their communities. Clement Bezold outlines five stages in building a vision: DEGEST - an acronym for demography, economy, government, environment, society/culture, and technology - is a tool for understanding the world around us and bringing us to the threshold of the future at which point futurists use scenarios or conjecture about what might happen in the future. "Scenarios give us an excellent way to think in an orderly manner about future possibilities, assess their probability and likelihood, and evaluate strategies that we might employ to achieve a chosen goal. But imagining scenarios is a challenge to our creativity: We need to come up with lots of ideas about what might happen in the future, since we cannot expect the future to be simply a replay of the past." Scenarios are particularly useful in dealing with wild cards - events that we do not expect to happen but having enormous consequences if they did and the main purpose of thinking about wild cards is to chip away at the rigidities of ideas about the future and open up a new level of creative thinking. 9/11 and the leaps from horse to car, from pen to typewriter and from typewriter to computer were wild card events and over the course of a century there might be several thousand wild cards so we have to expect them to impact our lives in times of rapid change. New ways of thinking are required to overcome our unwillingness to think seriously about future events thought to be unlikely. Putting a man on the moon demonstrated human ability to shape the future. Just as Thomas Edison trained himself to produce one minor invention every ten days and one major invention every six months, so we can train ourselves to prepare for the future and this book is an excellent place to start. ... Read more | |
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