Book Description

Instant Weather Forecasting is a 24 color photograph guide to forecasting the weather in the hours ahead, and it also provides some information on what likely weather trends will be. ... Read more

Reviews (2)

The Zen field guide to clouds
"Instant Weather Forecasting" reads like a zen field guide to weather prediction. It begins like most books of its kind with basic weather terminology and definitions with a few black and white diagrams and a couple of nifty charts of cloud types and wind force.

But the heart of this book is the 24 color cloud pictures which follow, each with its own chart to tell you what type of weather is following based on wind. visibility, precipitation, cloud covering, temperature and air pressure. The pictures are grouped by weather (i.e Sky associated with bad weather, sky associated with no immediate change, etc.) By no means exhaustive, it still makes for an excellent field companion.
Also recommended, Basic Essentials: Weather Forecasting, 2nd Edition(ISBN 0762704780) and Braving the Elements (ISBN 038546956X).

should be on every sailor's shelf
great pocket guide to forecasting the weather in the near-term future. (ie, 2-4 hours in advance) this would be an excellent companion for any outdoor enthusiast. ... Read more

Book Description

Book Description

Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics emphasizes the interrelationships of physical and dynamical meteorology. The text unifies four major subject areas: atmospheric thermodynamics, hydrostatic equilibrium and stability, atmospheric radiation and clouds, and atmospheric dynamics. These fundamental areas serve as cornerstones of modern atmospheric research on environmental issues like global change and ozone depletion. Physical concepts underlying these subject areas are developed from first principles, providing a self-contained text for students and scholars from diverse backgrounds.
The presentation is Lagrangian (single-body problems) in perspective, with a balance of theory and application. Each chapter includes detailed and extensive problems; selected answers are provided, as are appendices of various constants. The text requires a thorough foundation in calculus.

* Presents a comprehensive introduction to atmospheric thermodynamics, hydrostatics, radiation and clouds, and dynamics
* Develops concepts from first principles, providing a self-contained volume for readers from diverse backgrounds
* Emphasizes the interaction of physical processes shaping global problems of atmospheric energetics, transport, and chemistry
* Provides a balance of theory and applications, with examples drawn from a wide range of phenomena figuring in global atmospheric research
* Extensively illustrated with global satellite imagery and analyses and photographs of laboratory simulations
* Exercises apply to a wide range of topical problems ... Read more

Book Description

Did the Earth once undergo a super ice age, one that froze the entire planet from the poles to the equator? In Snowball Earth, gifted writer Gabrielle Walker has crafted an intriguing global adventure story, following maverick scientist Paul Hoffman’s quest to prove a theory so audacious and profound that it is shaking the world of earth sciences to its core.

In lyrical prose that brings each remote and alluring locale vividly to life, Walker takes us on a thrilling natural history expedition to witness firsthand the supporting evidence Hoffman has pieced together. That evidence, he argues, shows that 700 million years ago the Earth did indeed freeze over completely, becoming a giant “snowball,” in the worst climatic catastrophe in history. Even more startling is his assertion that, instead of ending life on Earth, this global deep freeze was the trigger for the Cambrian Explosion, the hitherto unexplained moment in geological time when a glorious profusion of complex life forms first emerged from the primordial ooze.

In a story full of intellectual intrigue, we follow the irascible but brilliant Hoffman and a supporting cast of intrepid geologists as they scour the planet, uncovering clue after surprising clue. We travel to a primeval lagoon at Shark Bay in western Australia, where dolphins cavort with swimmers every morning at seven and “living rocks” sprout out of the water like broccoli heads; to the desolate and forbidding ice fields of a tiny Arctic archipelago seven hundred miles north of Norway; to the surprising fossil beds that decorate Newfoundland’s foggy and windswept coastline; and on to the superheated salt pans of California’s Death Valley.

Through the contours of these rich and varied landscapes Walker teaches us to read the traces of geological time with expert eyes, and we marvel at the stunning feats of resilience and renewal our remarkable planet is capable of. Snowball Earth is science writing at its most gripping and enlightening. ... Read more

Reviews (19)

Earth's History and How Science Is Trying to Read It
This book offers a fascinating look at a possible explanation of how life went from single cell organisms to multicellular organisms. Also shows how different scientists can view and interpret the same data in different ways to support their different views. I have a lot of respect for Ms. Walker. Not only does she interview the main scientists that are involved in this debate, she has gone to some pretty remote areas of the world to see the very rocks that these scientists are basing their views on. That is alot more than most people would expect from someone just relating a story.

If you are interested in early life on Earth, you should read this book. If you are interested in how science tries to determine what has gone before, you should read this book. In short, if you are curious about life/science/the earth , "read this book."

Snowball Earth, A Review
There is no doubt left to the reader where Gabrielle Walker, author of the new book Snowball Earth: The Story of the Great Global Catastrophe that Spawned Life as We Know It, stands in the scientific debate over the Snowball Earth Theory. The first line in the acknowledgements of the book reads, "For the past two years or so, I have been a Snowball Earth groupie."

Snowball Earth traces the latest theory to send shockwaves through the geological community. Controversial theories in geology are not new (plate tectonics, and the extinction of the dinosaurs are two that come to mind), and a thorough understanding of the different sides in the debate of these new theories is needed to make sure the theory stands the tests of time and scientific scrutiny. The debates over new theories take place in the scientific journals, at scientific conferences, on field trips, and in the press. A good book about a theory presented for the lay-people can help educate the masses on the various points, pro and con, for the new theory. Unfortunately, Gabrielle Walkers book falls short on this ideal.

Snowball Earth is a semi-biography of the men that have postulated the 'Snowball Earth' theory, who have championed it in the scientific community and who have weathered the storm of debates and controversy over the various parts of the theory. The book opens, and mostly follows, the work of Paul Hoffman who put the many pieces of the puzzle together into the theory that became 'Snowball Earth'. Subsequent chapters focus on other players in the Snowball Earth drama. Brian Harland whose work in Svalbard, Norway leads Walker to dub him "the grandfather of the Snowball" and Joe Kirschvink whose skill with magnets and paleomagnetism helped prove the position of the continents in the tropics at the time of the Snowball. All played a role in bringing life to the Snowball Earth theory and Walker holds each high for the reader to esteem and praise.

Opponents of the Snowball Earth theory are given their due, but each is treated like a cameo character in a movie whose sole role is to come and challenge the hero in the white hat and fall away under the truth of the hero's cause. Scientists like Nick Christie-Blick of the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University and Martin Kennedy of the University of California, Riverside, are each paraded before the reader to give their opposition to the Snowball Earth theory. The data and counter-evidence collected by these and other geologists has sparked the heated debate over the Snowball Earth theory almost from its inception. In the end though, each is somehow shown to actually provide evidence that supports the Snowball Earth theory.

Walker's treatment of the theory and its proponents is not completely biased. Her skilled writing shows the arrogant and egotistical side of Paul Hoffman and the personality conflicts that all too often arise between strong willed people. The reader can feel the passion each of the players feel for their side of the debate. Walker does an excellent job of putting the reader in her shoes so you feel you are walking the hills of Namibia to see Paul Hoffman's field sites, or are scouring the rocks of Australia with Jim Gehling in search for rare Ediacarian fossils. In the end though Walker's skilled writing and easy-to-read style are not enough. Unless you are already a firm believer in the Snowball Earth theory the reader is left feeling incomplete. The time, effort, and attention to detail Walker gives to Hoffman, Kirschvink and the other proponents of the Snowball Earth theory are not given to those who oppose the theory. The alternate models, such as the 'Slushball Earth', are skimmed over, and in general the reader is left with the impression that the Snowball Earth is the only plausible explanation because that's how Walker presents it. In a way the reader feels patronized, that we are not capable of deciding for ourselves the merits of the theory based on the evidence from all sides of the debate.

A Biography and Detective Story, Plus a Little Science
I will start with a brief synopsis of the science. In the last six years, many scientists have come to think that an ice age of incredible severity gripped the Earth for a few million years, ending about 590 million years ago. The ocean surface apparently froze all the way to the equator, although the ice may have been thin and patchy near the equator. The Earth's average temperature was about -40 degrees Fahrenheit. Volcanoes belched out greenhouse gases for a few million years, and the atmospheric CO2 levels rose to many times what we have today. The ice receded from the tropics, and the greenhouse effect accelerated, driving the average planetary temperature above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (compared to about 60 today) within a few thousand years or less. This super ice age was the last of 4 to 6 such ice ages, with the first one occurring about 2.4 billion years ago, and the others between 750 and 590 million years ago. These ice ages may have occurred when all of the continents were strung around the equator. (The book presents a theory on why this might be so.) Finally, complex multi-cellular life forms first appeared in the Ediacaran period, shortly after the last super ice age. The book suggests that the last super ice age somehow spurred the appearance of complex life, but does not provide a good explanation of why this might be. (Maybe there is an assumption that "right after X" must mean "because of X.") Finally, the book asserts that such a calamity may occur again about 250 million years in the future.

The book is oddly written: part biography and part detective story, with some science scattered throughout. At no point does the book lay out a comprehensive exposition on the snowball hypothesis. Rather, the scientific theory comes through in bits and pieces as the book goes along. The book is, in large part, a biography of the four men who invented the snowball Earth theory: Paul Hoffman, Brian Harland, Joe Kirschvink, and Dan Schrag. It presents lots of extraneous information about these four guys, especially Hoffman (e.g., his exploits in running marathons). The book hops back and forth between the lives of the fantastic four, all the while letting the scientific mystery play itself out. This is something like a detective story. Many readers will probably like this approach, but I would have preferred that the first chapter explain the "snowball Earth" theory in detail. The rest of the book could then have dealt with how the theory came about, and the people who invented it. Moreover, the book is too narrowly oriented towards geology. Additional emphasis on atmospheric sciences, biology, and astrophysics would have been welcome. (For example, the sun's luminosity has increased about 1% every 200 million years for the last 3 billion years. During the various snowball epochs, the sun's brightness was about 88% to 97% of today's value. At what point is the sun too hot to allow a snowball epoch?)

The book also contains some errors. For example, it states that bacteria survived a trip to the Moon on an Apollo mission in 1967. The first Apollo moon landing was in 1969. Also, the book fails to consider the possibility that complex life may have provided an additional feedback mechanism for regulating CO2 levels in the air. In other words, it may have been that complex life caused an end to the snowball epochs, more so than the snowball epochs stimulating the appearance of complex life.

Finally, the book should, but does not, have pictures, illustrations, and maps.

Snowballs and egos on the loose
Great writing for the layperson interested in pre-quaternary climate change theory, but some of the geoscientists researching the 'snowball earth' appear to have personalities verging on the psychotic. Would make an excellent case study for psychiatrists studying the obsessions of the geoscientific research community. Some of these geologists should've had their egotistical butts coldly rocked when they were being raised. I feel sorry for their students.

Up close and personal. Theories and Controversy.
This book provides wonderful insight into both an interesting and controversial theory, and the personal and professional struggles of those who debate it. The author pulls no punches in describing the egos, strenghts and foibles of the various protagonists. They are sometimes seen as heroic, other times as petulant.

The author comes down a little too strongly in favor of the Snowball Earth theory, but so well exposes the controversy that her particular opinions are not given undue weight. The reader is left juggling many of the same balls that the scientific community is currently dealing with.

A quick but delightful read. Certainly worth the investment. ... Read more

Book Description

Providing a comprehensive overview of the significance of the glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, this study reviews the theory behind climatological observations.It describes present modelling studies and predicted future changes in the mass balances of these key indicators of global climate change. The volume is an important reference for scientists working in climate change, environmental sciences and glaciology. ... Read more

Book Description

In 2001 a panel representing virtually all the world�s governments and climate scientists announced that they had reached a consensus: the world was warming at a rate without precedent during at least the last ten millennia, and that warming was caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases from human activity. The consensus itself was at least a century in the making. The story of how scientists reached their conclusion�by way of unexpected twists and turns and in the face of formidable intellectual, financial, and political obstacles�is told for the first time in The Discovery of Global Warming. Spencer R. Weart lucidly explains the emerging science, introduces us to the major players, and shows us how the Earth�s irreducibly complicated climate system was mirrored by the global scientific community that studied it. Unlike familiar tales of Science Triumphant, this book portrays scientists working on bits and pieces of a topic so complex that they could never achieve full certainty�yet so important to human survival that provisional answers were essential. Weart unsparingly depicts the conflicts and mistakes, and how they sometimes led to fruitful results. His book reminds us that scientists do not work in isolation, but interact in crucial ways with the political system and with the general public. The book not only reveals the history of global warming, but also analyzes the nature of modern scientific work as it confronts the most difficult questions about the Earth�s future. ... Read more

Reviews (9)

Story how a bunch of US junk scientists fought for money
Dr. Weart has received an extra star for his attempt to cover the early history of climate science. That's it.

I was kind of disgusted by this book because what I expected was a story about some scientific discoveries connected with the global climate. A story about the history of science is always fun to read even if it is a little bit biased - for example towards the advocates of the global warming which was expected in this case.

Instead, this book is mostly a story about the money. It's a story about a group of greedy people who were not satisfied with their funding as the scientists and with the "boring" objective tasks that a scientist must usually solve, and who always wanted to find new sources of funding by claiming a "discovery" of something new and sensational. And Dr. Weart is completely open and reveals his opinion that it is OK if science is affected by politics. In fact he enjoys it, and as a historian of science, he is happy to analyze this interaction.

Let's hope that I am not the only one who believes that it is unacceptable for scientific research to be affected by politics, and on the other hand that science cannot determine which policies should be adopted.

If you see the book, try to count how many times the word "funding" appears in it. I find it completely scary. The truth in science does not depend on the money! These global warming alarmists seem to be a culture for which science is a hostage and a tool to achieve something completely different.

If you open this book, you will see many stories about some scientists who were supposed to measure the concentration of some gas somewhere - according to the old-fashioned, objective rules of science. Because they knew that it's unlikely that anything shocking would be found in this way, they decided that they wanted to measure something completely different - something that can be used to argue that there is a big "discovery" - this bogus discovery was finally called "global warming" (well, after the attempts in the 1970s to call it "global cooling").

It is a great "theory" that predicts something 20 years from now - a short enough period to scare the people, but a long enough period to get funding for a long time and to allow the people to forget that you were wrong once it's proved. It's a theory that Weart admits won't ever be quite convincing, but nevertheless the decision making should be based on it.

The book offers, much like many similar books, simplistic arguments that the global climate is simple and its models should be right. Weart does not hesitate to claim that the temperature in 2050 will be up to 5.5 Celsius degrees higher, even though it is known that the temperature in the last 100 years only rose by 0.6 degrees or so.

Even if you forget whether the global warming is true or not, the history as described in this book is completely twisted. For example, it is focused on America only. There is nothing about the 20th century European scientists, for example. And of course, there is nothing about e.g. the influential Russian Academy of Science that identified the Kyoto protocol as a "scientifically unfounded nonsense".

Mr. Weart won't tell you such things - instead, he will brainwash you with the obnoxious lies about the "scientific consensus" - this consensus has become the only real "argument" of the "evangelists". It's because he kind of knows that Goebbels said correctly that a lie that is repeated 100 times "becomes" the truth.

The global climate has been a politicized topic for many decades - but this is one of the first books I've seen which is completely open about the fact that the global warming alarmists are twisting the data - and picking their problems - in order to get more funding and in order to support their political allies.

Weart also happily attacks the global warming skeptics by the characteristic far left-wing argument that they may have some links to the corporations. Well, I will probably prefer a person paid by a corporation over a person who wants to destroy the corporations - but the actual scientific results don't depend on such things as long as science is done properly. Weart openly says that it should not be done properly.

Weart's book actually describes the very same people as Crichton's "State of Fear". The difference is that Crichton's novel ends with a happy end - the evil eco-terrorists are either shot, or eaten by the eco-friendly native tribes - while Weart's novel ends as a horror: the same people are celebrated as heroes who are almost allowed to declare their rubbish comments called "global warming" as one of the biggest scientific breakthroughs of the century.

I am ashamed that these global warming people are sometimes identified as our colleagues.

Dr. Lubos Motl, Harvard University

On Global Warming's Trail
This fairly slight volume is an important addition to the study of global warming. The book, easily understood by the average lay reader, recounts the history of climate change research starting in about 1896. I should point out that the reader will not take away a reasonably thorough knowledge of global warming science from the book. That is not its purpose. You do learn some elements of the science involved, but essentially you learn how our present day view of climate change came about.

Our knowledge of our climate chugged along at a fairly slow rate over the last 108 years for several reasons. A major problem was the essential need for the involvement of a wide variety of scientific specialties. In order to advance the study we have needed the input of physicists, oceanographers, geologists, chemists, meteorologists and even botanists. It is rare that such a diverse group of scientists are needed for an advance in a certain area. Weart describes how all of these researchers started working together in their search for answers to global climate change.

The second major difficulty was the lack of certain technologies necessary to achieve meaningful progress. Only recently have we had computers fast enough to process the data in climate modeling programs. Technological advances also had to be made in the equipment needed to take kilometers deep core samples from ice and other strata. Researchers had to learn the hard way that you can't even breathe on ice cores as your breath will contaminate the sample.

Weart brings us up to the present and discusses the roles of journalism and politics in advancing and oftenhindering the governmental support for the recommendations of scientists. The author has no doubt that our planet is warming up, and notes that literally thousands of scientists now support this conclusion.

Again, if you are trying to learn the science basics of this topic, you will need a companion volume to this one for that material.Here's a few you might consider:
1.The No-nonsense guide to Climate Change, by Dinyar Godrej
2. Atmosphere, Climate and Change by Thomas Gredel and Paul Crutzen
3. Climate Change by William James Burroughs
4.Is the Temperature Rising? By S. George Philander

The Scientific Consensus is that There is Global Warming.
This is a short book written recently (2003) by Spencer Weart, the director of the Center for History of the American Institute of Physics. If you are not aware, that is the premier professional society for physical scientists working in the United States. Also it is the main society through which many scientific publications are produced and through which conferences are held almost monthly.

This is a short but easy to read book and it is cross referenced to the web page www.aip.org/history/climate. The book contains a number of notes and references on climate change and history.

In the book Weart explains that contrary to many notions in the popular press the main parameters that cause global warming are fairly well understood. As the earth rotates on its axis, it is warmed by day as it faces the hot sun and then the temperature drops at night as the surface is cooled by thermal radiation losses into cold space. This is all fairly simple science and the measurement of increased CO2 levels and more recently surface temperature indicates that they are related, and the consensus among scientists (consensus not 100% agreement) is that global warming with the help of man is real. This idea or conclusion is still opposed by the polluters such as some oil companies. They hire teams of PR people and law firms to throw a blanket of confusion over this concept, often using scientists that still have not made up their minds as spokesman.

The press still has not caught on to the fact the most scientists think it is happening including many internal US government agencies. They do not know or understand the scientific consensus since they still listen to the lobby groups. Similarly many politicians reject the notion. And of course it does not take much imagination to know why the latter group cannot see the light. It is similar to the decades of denial when people said that tobacco did not caused lung cancer.

Again, the science is simple and these temperature oscillations and the nature of the radiation balance were first understood by the French scientist Joseph Fourier. These were further clarified by the British scientist and engineer John Tyndall about 150 years ago when he discovered that CO2 and water vapour acted as radiation barrier that would stop energy losses from the earth, and would retain the energy on the surface of the earth.

In addition there is a feedback mechanism. If the planet gets a bit too cold, say by a decrease in the CO2 levels, the water vapour is reduced and the planet surface can get even colder. The oscillations can be predicted with some confidence - but not 100% accurately- by computer models. It is clear that the trends are accurate even if scientists cannot predict all the fine details in a complicated and thin atmosphere. But in general, the consensus (according to the author) is that we are producing the gases and the models indicate warming.

The author presents a history of global warming studies in an easy to read style covering the last 200 years. He does not use any mathematical formulas but he does produce scientific data on the earth's temperature and the rise in the CO2.

The book is relatively low key but presents a fairly convincing case that we are in the throes of a climate change that might take many decades to become clearly apparent to everyone (my analogy lung cancer with the 20-30 year exposure period). Among the scientists themselves, he tells us that there is a general consensus in the scientific community that global warming is occurring - contrary to stories in the media that scientists do not agree on global warming.

This is a short (4 star) book and it is a good read and education - highly recommend.

Jack in Toronto

Putting Global Warming On The Front Burner
Discovery of Global Warming

I love scientific detective stories.The fact that the climatological investigation into global warming is ongoing is no barrier to learning about all the legwork that has gone into it.This account is especially welcome, as it is an objective account of how the idea of global warming has developed over the years.It is literally a textbook example of the workings of aggregate knowledge.

Especially good is the account of climatology's trip up the blind alley of The Coming Ice Age in the 1970s.This as much as anything tarred the proponents of the global warming hypothesis as a bunch of Chicken Littles who couldn't make up their minds.But while it may have made convincing policy makers more difficult, like so many other missteps in science it ultimately led to a better understanding of what was really going on. And many observed facts have survived through the revolutions of interpretation.You can't argue with the Keeling Curve, which measures the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, for instance.

The objectivity continues even in concluding sections, when contemporary politics enter the story.In this account the Kyoto Protocols are a missed opportunity, although their shortcomings and the legitimate objections to them are fairly-enough presented.Plus all the loose ends and shortcomings of the global warming model get spelled out in frank detail.But the existing scientific consensus, that CO2 buildup is real, artificial, growing, and a menace, gets the last word.

Dr. Weart's call to action in the end is bitter: more regulation, higher taxes, the whole "wise men" approach to public policy.Principal blame for the crisis is affixed to the U.S., too-as if it is America and not the sainted Third World burning down the world's rainforests.Some of the prescriptions sound like they would indeed be money savers though, such as aggressively heading off methane leaks by mending pipelines.In all, this is an informative, challenging account of how we know what we think we know about global warming.Recommended to everyone with any interest in the issue.

Great balanced survey of the history of climate science
An excellent short summary of the rise of global climate concerns in the scientific, political and public awareness.Weart details the steps in the discovery of global warming as a concept, including the various transformations that climate theory went through on its way towards adequately explaining what has happened in the past and reliably predicting the general shape of things to come.He explains the science well for the beginner (that is to say, not too deeply) and covers many bases - including solar, atmospheric, oceanic and biomass inputs that shape our climate and the creeping realization that climate change can change (and has changed in the past) much faster than anyone suspected 100 years ago.

While covering the science and history in some detail, he also takes great care to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties of climate science, focusing his attention later in the book on the public and political interplay in the process of discovery and discussion about climatic change.He also leaves room for continued debate, although it's clear that he has been convinced of the potential dangers of global warming by the available evidence.For those who find the book short on scientific material, a link is included to a website maintained by the author which contains much more material and data.The author also lists links to other prominent sites for climate change information, including sites which argue against its existence.Overall, I appreciate both the passion and the evident fairness that the author brings to his subject which leads me to give it 5 stars. ... Read more

Book Description

Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction is an informative, up to date discussion about the predicted impacts of global warming. It draws on material from the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a huge collaborative study drawing together current thinking on the subject from experts in a range of disciplines, and presents the findings of the panel for a general readership for the first time. The book also discusses the politics of global warming and what we can do now to adapt to climate change and mitigate its worst effects. ... Read more

Book Description

"A superb reference." --- Physics Today"Will become a classic text in climate research. " --- Physics World"Valuable to anyone who studies, models, or uses the climate of the earth." --- Walter Robinson, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society"Informative and authoritative on a remarkably wide range of topics." --- Nature

Are we entering a period of global warming? Is weather predictable? Physics of Climate offers you an in-depth description of atmospheric circulation and how environmental phenomena worldwide interact in a single, unified system. This integrated approach unites all the key features of the climate system--oceans, atmosphere, and cryosphere--to explain the structure and behavior of climate over time. Ideal for students and professionals in meteorology, oceanography, geophysics, and physics. ... Read more

Book Description

This total learning package for the introductory meteorology course includes much more than a text--the book is packaged with the exciting Blue Skies CD-ROM and four months' free access to InfoTrac® College Edition, an online university library. At the core of this learning package is Ahrens' respected text, which presents the fundamental concepts of meteorology in the context of everyday weather observations. Fun and easy to understand and relate to, the book and its cumulative organization enables students to build on each concept and gain greater understanding into the dynamic nature of the atmosphere. ... Read more

Reviews (2)

USA-Centric Presentation, Weather Nowhere Else ?
I take introductory course Texas University Austin and this book used. Its good presentation in chapter the first about Global Warming caused by greenhouse gasses emmitted in US by engines of cars, and destruction of atmosphere by capitalists and greed. But, however, allmost all maps in this book of USA, as if only nation in world ever to experience any sort of weather is USA. My own home nation has weather too but is not mentioned, only maps of USA. Turducken weather hot and dry, mostly consistent, but showing weather maps of other countries beside USA would be less unilateral, since weather happens all over the world and not just in the USA. The part about Hurricanes Typhoons and Cyclones is good, I never knew before the difference between those. THe movie film Twister with Helen Hunt is good supplement materials for the chapiter about tornados, and supplemental CDROM it is useful too for supplemental materials.

Well-written, clear, and a very descriptive analysis
I am a college student at the Univeristy of Colorado at Boulder. I was required to read Ahrens book and I found it very helpful and informative. At times it was a little dull and simple, but it covered the atmosphere and weather related topics extremely well. I recommend this text to anyone interested in weather. The pictures and graphs were great too! ... Read more

Book Description

How will the world's climate change in the coming century? The answer to this question depends on how human societies develop in terms of demographics and economic development, technological change, energy supply and demand, and land use change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios describes new scenarios of the future, and predicts greenhouse gas emissions associated with such developments. The scenarios provide the basis for future assessments of climate change and possible response strategies. This volume is the most comprehensive and state-of-the-art assessment available of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and provides invaluable information for industry, policy-makers, environmental organizations, and researchers in global change, technology, engineering and economics. ... Read more

Book Description

Straightforward advice for predicting and noticing shifts in weather patterns aimed directly at the novice who wants to enjoy a safe journey in the wilderness. With this updated edition, you'll learn to understand how and why different types of weather occur, cloud formations and what they have to tell you, variations in geography and how they affect the weather, and basic meteorological concepts for weather awareness. ... Read more

Reviews (2)

Practical, Informative
"Basic Essentials: Weather Forecasting" is a practical guide to weather as it relates to its most important aspect to humans: what its going to do next. It is a nice blend of conveying "weather 101" without losing sight of what it might be telling us. Chpt 1, for example, follows up telling us what causes storms, lighting and tornadoes with some practical safety advice. Similarly, in Chpt 2, we learn what the different types of clouds are and then how to tell when the weather is getting better or worse by reading cloud formations.

There is a hidden gem in Chpt 5 (subtitled: Semireliable Forecasting from Legends and Lore). In it, 2 dozen weather "wives' tales" of various usefulness are examined.

Overall, this is ideal for campers, hikers, boaters, amateur naturalists and scouts. Also recommended, Instant Weather Forecasting by Alan Watts.

Basic Essentials: Weather Forecasting
I thought this book was very well written. It gives you good advice and knowledge about weather forecasting and what to look for when doing so. I am studying to be a weather observer and this book has been a good reference book, I take it to work with me as I watch the weather on my driving job. Thank You for the opportunity to review this book. ... Read more

Book Description

A introductory guide to understanding weather and its effect on our lives.

It is human nature to try to understand, predict and control the weather that affects crops, wildlife...even one's mood. The world's favorite topic of conversation is also the subject of increasing scientific study.

Weather explores how weather works and its effect at a local and global level, revealing the importance of climate in determining landscape, flora and fauna, and the overall quality of our lives.

Using dramatic never-before-published aerial and satellite photography, this book provides up-to-the-minute information about a fascinating spectrum of natural phenomena: - Extreme weather such as tornadoes and hurricanes - Natural events that affect the weather - Forecasting and predicting weather - How weather affects life on Earth - Climate change.

Colorful diagrams provide at-a-glance understanding about complex issues with explanations for interpreting weather signs and charts. Weather simplifies the many aspects of climate with easy-to-understand text and lively illustrations. ... Read more

Book Description

Weather Predicting Simplified is the first book that shows the reader, with many sample satellite photos and weather maps, how to predict the weather easily and accurately - without having to wait for hours for NOAA updates. ... Read more

Reviews (8)

Disappointed
As a scientist, physician, and sailor, I consider myself fairly good at assimilating technical material, but I had trouble with this book. The author (like the NOAA meterologists who write those impenetrable forecast discussions) does not seem content to stick with one set of terms. A better editor would have helped him do so. One of the main thrusts of the text is the relationship between upper atmosphere phenomena (troughs and ridges) and surface conditions. After reading the book, I still don't have a satisfying grasp of how this relationship works, mainly, I think, because the phenomena are defined in descriptive rather than mechanistic terms. I am going to read it again, but will be looking for something better.

To the point, well written
Yep, I think if I had to take one book on weather for a sailor, then this would be it. I really like the sequence with which he presents his topics, which makes it easy to follow. Loads of examples, weather fax charts, etc., which makes it easy to compare to current stuff and see what's going on out there. I love it.

Simple, yet comprehensive and practical
This is the best weather prediction guide I've seen. Michael Carr makes it easy to understand and interpret weather prediction models and provides plenty of examples so you can make sense of those satellite images available online! Not only that, he applies his extensive blue water sailing experience in helping to identify appropriate tactics for heavy weather avoidance. I wouldn't go to sea without it.

Weather uncomplicated
Michael Carr explains weather better than anyone I know. He uncomplicates the theory, makes sense out of the details and variables, and presents this often-too-technical subject in a friendly, easy to understand way. Read this book and the logic of weather falls clearly in place -- through the authors clear descriptions, excellent graphics and extensive resources.

An ideal book for learning weather
As Director of Ocean Navigator's School of Seamanship I have chosen Michael Carr's book as our textbook due to its high quality of content and material presentation. Michael is our instructor for weather and oceanography seminars and his book represnts years of first hand experience and information gathering. ... Read more

Amazon.com

Science is inextricably linked with mathematics. Statistician David Salsburg examines the development of ever-more-powerful statistical methods for determining scientific truth in The Lady Tasting Tea, a series of historical and biographical sketches that illuminate without alienating the mathematically timid. Salsburg, who has worked in academia and industry and has met many of the major players he writes about, shares his subjects' enthusiasm for problem solving and deep thinking. His sense of excitement drives the prose, but never at the expense of the reader; if anything, the author has taken pains to eliminate esoterica and ephemera from his stories. This might frustrate a few number-head readers, but the abundant notes and references should keep them happy in the library for weeks after reading the book.

Ultimately, the various tales herein are unified in a single theme: the conversion of science from observational natural history into rigorously defined statistical models of data collection and analysis. This process, usually only implicit in studies of scientific methods and history, is especially important now that we seem to be reaching the point of diminishing returns and are looking for new paradigms of scientific investigation. The Lady Tasting Tea will appeal to a broad audience of scientifically literate readers, reminding them of the humanity underlying the work.--Rob Lightner ... Read more

Reviews (22)

Wonderfully well written, entertaining, and informative
The intense media attention given to the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem a few years ago was followed by the publication of many books on mathematics for non-mathematicians. Dr. Salsburg's book is arguably among the best of them. It has many interesting and illuminating anecdotes about the most influential statisticians in the early 20th century, which is when the Statistical Revolution (as aptly called by the author) took place. Important developments are clearly explained in their historical context, and their implications for current (i.e., 21st century) scientific research are given. The student of Statistics will get to know the people behind the names mentioned in the textbooks. The book is non-technical and written for the general public, but as a statistician myself I can say that I was no less than delighted reading it. In fact, two chapters (on probit and sample selection) deal with concepts I'm using in an epidemiological manuscript!

great look at statistics in the 20th Century
The Lady Tasting Tea is a new book by David Salsburg (a Ph.D. mathematical statistician, who recently retired from Pfizer Pharmaceuticals in Connecticut). The title of the book is taken from the famous example that R. A. Fisher used in his book "The Design of Experiments" to express the ideas and principles of statistical design to answer research questions. The subtitle "How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century" really tells what the book is about. The author relates the statistical developments of the 20th Century through descriptions of the famous statisticians and the problems they studied.

The author conveys this from the perspective of a statistician with good theoretical training and much experience in academia and industry. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and a retired Senior Research Fellow from Pfizer has published three technical books and over 50 journal articles and has taught statistics at various universities including the Harvard School of Public Health, the University of Connecticut and the University of Pennsylvania.

This book is written in layman's terms and is intended for scientists and medical researchers as well as for statistician who are interested in the history of statistics. It just was published in early 2001. On the back-cover there are glowing words of praise from the epidemiologist Alvan Feinstein and from statisticians Barbara Bailar and Brad Efron. After reading their comments I decided to buy it and I found it difficult to put down.

Salsburg has met and interacted with many of the statisticians in the book and provides an interesting perspective and discussion of most of the important topics including those that head the agenda of the computer age and the 21st century. He discusses the life and work of many famous statisticians including Francis Galton, Karl Pearson, Egon Pearson, Jerzy Neyman, Abraham Wald, John Tukey, E. J. G. Pitman, Ed Deming, R. A. Fisher, George Box, David Cox, Gertrude Cox, Emil Gumbel, L. H. C. Tippett, Stella Cunliffe, Florence Nightingale David, William Sealy Gosset, Frank Wilcoxon, I. J. Good, Harold Hotelling, Morris Hansen, William Cochran, Persi Diaconis, Brad Efron, Paul Levy, Jerry Cornfield, Samuel Wilks, Andrei Kolmogorov, Guido Castelnuovo, Francesco Cantelli and Chester Bliss. Many other probabilists and statisticians are also mentioned including David Blackwell, Joseph Berkson, Herman Chernoff, Stephen Fienberg, William Madow, Nathan Mantel, Odd Aalen, Fred Mosteller, Jimmie Savage, Evelyn Fix, William Feller, Bruno deFinetti, Richard Savage, Erich Lehmann (first name mispelled), Corrado Gini, G. U. Yule, Manny Parzen, Walter Shewhart, Stephen Stigler, Nancy Mann, S. N. Roy, C. R. Rao, P. C. Mahalanobis, N. V. Smirnov, Jaroslav Hajek and Don Rubin among others.

The final chapter "The Idol with Feet of Clay" is philosophical in nature but deals with the important fact that in spite of the widespread and valuable use of the statistical methodology that was primarily created in the past century, the foundations of statistical inference and probability are still on shaky ground.

I think there is a lot of important information in this book that relates to pharmaceutical trials, including the important discussion of intention to treat, the role of epidemiology (especially retrospective case-control studies and observational studies), use of martingale methods in survival analysis, exploratory data analysis, p-values, Bayesian models, non-parametric methods, bootstrap, hypothesis tests and confidence intervals. This relates very much to my current work but the topics discussed touch all areas of science including, engineering in aerospace and manufacturing, agricultural studies, general medical research, astronomy, physics, chemistry, government (Department of Labor, Department of Commerce, Department of Energy etc.), educational testing, marketing and economics. I think this is a great book for MDs, medical researchers and clinicians too! It will be a good book to read for anyone involved in scientific endeavors. As a statistician I find a great deal of value in reviewing the key ideas and philosophy of the great statisticians of the 20th Century.

I also have gained new insight from Salsburg. He has given these topics a great deal of thought and has written eloquently about them. I have learned about some people that I knew nothing about like Stella Cunliffe and Guido Castelnuovo. It is also touching for me to hear about the work of my Stanford teachers, Persi Diaconis and Brad Efron and other statisticians that I have met or found influential. These personalities and many other lesser-known statisticians have influenced the field of statistics.

The book includes a timeline that provides a list in chronological order of important events and the associated personalities in the history of statistics. It starts with the birth of Karl Pearson in 1857 and ends with the death of John Tukey in 2000.

Salsburg also provides a nice bibliography that starts with an annotated section on books and papers accessible to readers who may not have strong mathematical training. The rest of the bibliography is subdivided as follows: (1) Collected works of prominent statisticians, (2)obituaries, reminiscences, and published conversations and (3) other books and article that were mentioned in this book.

The book provides interesting reading for both statisticians and non-statisticians.

What happened to Frank P. Ramsey?J M Keynes?
Salsburg(S) does an excellent job discussing the historical development of the field of statistics in the 20th century.He has a way of writing that blends current statistical theory with the development of statistics over time from a historical perspective with the individuals who made it all happen,such as Neyman-Pearson and Sir Ronald Fisher.In this book he is close to Ian Hacking in the manner in which he weaves his story.This reviewer has a few quibbles.First,in S's discussion of the personalist(subjectivist)theory of probability,only de Finetti and Savage are covered.Since Frank Ramsey's 1922 and 1926 contributions to the subjective theory of probability,unfortunately combined with error filled critiques of John Maynard Keynes's logical theory of probability,were published BEFORE the work of de Finetti and Savage,he definitely deserved to have a prominent place in any book dealing with the history of probability and statistics.Second,there are a number of errors made in the all to brief discussion of Keynes and his logical theory of probability in his 1921 book,A Treatise on Probability(TP).Contrary to S(p.112,p.305),Keynes never received a doctorate in philosophy for writing the TP because the TP is not a doctoral dissertation.The TP was a thesis submitted for a fellowship, successfully, in 1909 at Cambridge.Keynes added a Part V to his thesis in the period from 1910-1914 to complete his TP.S commits another error when he chacterizes Keynesian economic policy as the manipulation of monetary policy.It is the manipulation of both fiscal and monetary policy.Finally,Keynes's probabilities are primarily intervals with a lower and an upper bound,not ordinal rankings as suggested by S.S's flawed appraisel involves a failure to translate Keynes's definition of the term "nonnumerical",which means"not by a single numeral but by two numerals".Finally,S is in too much of a hurry to take the side of Neyman,a deductivist, in his debates with Fisher,an inductivist,about significance levels(p-values) and confidence intervals.Neyman's justification for confidence intervals is badly flawed.It essentially boils down to an arbitrary "act of will" on the part of the researcher.Fisher,who was well acquanted with Keynes's logical theory of probability,realized that Neyman's "reasoning" was actually an evasion.Unfortunately,Fisher never was clear about his reservations .Fisher simply needed to come right out and say that a 95% confidence interval means that the researcher is 95% confident that the particular parameter,say the mean,lies in that interval.Of course,this conclusion follows from the proportional syllogism,which is part of the logical theory of probability.Neyman,who was a frequentist,ends up in a quagmire of his own creation because he did not want to allow any "inductive" concepts into his theory.

Noble effort, and entertaining.
It should come as no surprise to any reader that a 300 page collection of anecdotes might fall a bit short in realizing the implied goal in Salsburg's subtitle. He attempts to explain the paradigmatic shift in science from a Newtonian determinism to a probabilistic worldview by focusing on the statisticians themselves. The reader is often left with a desire for more - either more explanation of the paradigm shift or more anecdotes.

Nonetheless, I found this volume entertaining. I was fascinated by the newness in this field. Certainly nothing in my education led me to believe that virtually every aspect of social science research and statistical analysis is a 20th century invention. Who would have thought that the essence of 21st century social science research would be so well-anchored in agricultural studies and, perhaps most importantly, in the quality control efforts by master brewers at Guinness?

Salsburg intends to write to a non-statistical audience in language that can be understood without mathematic symbols. In this he is only partly successful. He does avoid technical symbols and most technical jargon, but in doing so he is often too vague to make his point clear. Even with three years of graduate statistics (from a social science perspective), I often found myself unsure of his explanations.

In the final analysis, Salsburg's description of the "statistical revolution" in science is really more of a sketch than a portrait. The significances of a shift from certainty to probability cannot be easily explained, but I will give him credit for trying to do so. That he is able to deal with this shift without explicitly commenting on the implications of this shift for religion, values, meaning, and justice is perhaps one of this book's major strengths.

Unfortunately, Salsburg concludes with a critique of the statistical revolution that may weaken the impact of his stories. Those desperately holding onto a Newtonian worldview could use this critique to discount 20th century science, especially social science. If, as Salsburg suggests, we are on the cusp of another paradigm shift, any post-statistical revolution is unlikely to be advanced by those continuing to resist the statistical one.

Pleasing intro to statisctics for lay(wo)men
An intriguing story based introduction to the fast field of
statistics. No formulas but still plenty of math terms explained
as easily as possible. The life stories of many statisticians
are combinded with the history of certain statistical problems.
This book showed me how huge the field of stastics is.
Statistics and Probability seem now to be scientific issues
on not just ways for politicians to cheat the public. In
everyday life, any mention of a statistic result causes at best
a compasionate smile. But this book changed that for me and I'd
like to learn more about this topic. ... Read more

Book Description

Few people today are unaware of the far-reaching effects of global environmental change, and it is now generally accepted that human activities are the root cause of the changes in climate. "Global Environmental Change" provides a balanced overview of the problems associated with global warming. Commencing with a chapter on the evidence for global warming presented by Sir John Houghton, the book then goes on to discuss the many problems associated with air pollution. Subsequent chapters cover rising sea levels, the effect of climate change on human health and the role of environmental performance in industry. This readable and factually detailed book will have wide appeal but will be of particular interest to environmental scientists, industrial managers, policy-makers and students. ... Read more

Book Description

The book discusses the ideas and creates a framework for building toward a theory of paleoclimate.Using the rich and mounting array ofobservational evidence of climatic changes from geology, geochemistry, and paleontology, Saltzman offers a dynamical approach to the theory of paleoclimate evolution and an expanded theory of climate.

Saltzman was a distinquished authority on dynamical meteorology. This book provides a comprehensive framework based on dynamical system ideas for a theory of climate and paleoclimatic evolution which is intended for graduate students and research workers in paleoclimatology, earth system studies, and global change research. The book includes an extensive bibliography of geological and physical/dynamical references.

Written by the late Barry Saltzman who was a distinquished authority on dynamical meteorology
This book provides a comprehensive framework based on dynamical system ideas for a theory of climate and paleoclimatic evolution
The book includes extensive bibliography of geological and physical/dynamical references ... Read more

Amazon.com

A professor of anthropology by training, Fagan traces the effects of climactic change on civilizations over the past 15,000 years--a period of prolonged global warning that has only accelerated over the past 150 years. In particular, he's interested in how civilizations have responded to, or been radically altered by, changes in environment. One of Fagan's most compelling examples is his detailed history of the city of Ur, in what is now modern-day Iraq. Once a great city in one of the world's earliest civilizations, it first thrived thanks to abundant rainfall and then suffered even more severely when the Indian Ocean monsoons shifted southward, changing rain patterns. By 2000 B.C. its agricultural economy had collapsed, and today it is an abandoned landscape, an assemblage of decaying shrines in the harshest of deserts. Fagan views this event as pivotal. It was, he writes, "the first time an entire city disintegrated in the face of environmental catastrophe."But not, Fagan notes, the last. In his epilogue, which covers the last 800 years of human history, Fagan explores the climatic upheavals that left 20 million dead in famine-related epidemics in the 19th century. He notes that today 200 million people barely survive on marginal agricultural land in places such as northeastern Brazil, Ethiopia, and the Saharan Sahel. If temperatures rise much above current levels, and rising seas flood coastal plains, the devastation could dwarf any disaster humankind has previously known. Fagan doesn't offer easy solutions, but he presents a compelling history of climate's role in the background--and sometimes foreground--of human history. --Keith Moerer ... Read more

Reviews (8)

Too Many Errors!
Fagan grew careless in checking over his manuscript. Where I possess some expertise I caught numerous errors, and therefore don't trust any of the information in this book, although I found the subject interesting and worthy of a good popular treatment.

The author treated the Medieval era sloppily. Druids did not "compete" with Christianity through the 5th century AD. Most of them were murdered by the Romans, the survivors losing influence. The Celts (their elite, the only ones who counted) had adopted Christianity by the 3rd century, and spread out all over Europe, even to Italy, as missionaries and teachers. Perhaps Fagan is confusing Druidism, a pagan religion, with the brilliant and tolerant Pelagian "Celtic" Christianity that flourished from about the 3rd to the 8th centuries, survived in enclaves -- possibly, as some claim, influencing dissenting Protestantism many centuries later. There were plenty of European pagans in the 5th century, but they resided in the Germanic, Baltic and Slavic lands, which weren't converted till later.

Where does he get the idea that Gothic architecture began as early as the 10th century, which was the heyday of the Romanesque style? Gothic architecture appeared tentatively in the mid-12th century, but the Gothic era spanned the late 12th century through the 15th, with the 13th century as its most creative period.

Even more worrisome than the careless Medieval research are Fagan's maps and illustrations. First of all, I recognized some maps and drawings from other books but can't find them cited in the credits. Perhaps because several were taken from other sources, there's a frequent lack of correspondence between text and picture, or simply an incomplete drawing. Examples: On p. 16 Western Spain is covered in dark gray, but there's no legend for dark gray. On p. 81, in a section on the Kebarans, I looked in vain to find the name "Kebara" on the map. Worst of all, on p. 163 the illustration shows the phallic Egyptian god "Mut." The text names this god as "Min." There are many other graphics with similarly irksome problems.

I remember the first edition of MacNeil's ENGLISH LANGUAGE having similar problems with poorly proofed maps and illustrations, and a corrected edition being hastily published. Fagan needs to do the same with this book, or his reputation will suffer.

Interesting but could have been alot better
I recommend this book more as a reference book when reading about different regions of the world during specific time periods than trying to read this book from beginning to end. I've read several world history books, including Guns Germs and Steel, and this one by far was the most boring read. Some of my complaints are as follows:
1) The science behind the earth's weather patterns and how scientists try to deduce the weather at different times in the history of earth could have been elaborated further with only an extra 5-10 pages.
2) The author includes too many details in some places and too few in others. He concentrates on a specific time period in detail and then jumps a few millenia.
3) This is a minor complaint, but the author doesn't believe in the 'Big Kill'theory. He believes that humans had a very minor role in the extinction of large mammals, and instead attributes it to the changing weather. However, weather has always been in flux, and an unprecedented ( in the past million years) number of species died at a time perfectly coinciding with the spread of Human hunters around the globe.

Drowning and drought
Anyone still believing scientists lack a sense of humanity should read this. Although the title suggests yet another climate study, this isn't a simple analysis of our weather systems. Fagan places the human condition at the centre of his narrative. It's not enough to present more evidence of global warming. In fact, he's adamant about the causes of current climate change being a "side debate". He's much more concerned about how many climate shifts humanity has experienced and how we reacted to them. His theme is our adaptability to weather changes in the past and whether we can garner lessons for the future.

Establishing a scenario beginning twenty thousand years ago, Fagan lines out three Acts for the peopling of the Americas. The first is in "the primodial homeland", Ice Age Siberia, followed by conditions revealed about the Beringian Land Bridge of fifteen thousand years ago. The final act takes us to the chaotic Atlantic and the European environment. Conditions were rarely stable as "the glaciers were never still". Their "irregular dance" kept conditions variable and human response was adapt or perish. Canadian fresh meltwater interrupted the Gulf Stream letting harsh cold envelope Europe.

Human adaptibility often meant improvements on older technologies or innovative ones to cope with the result of climate change. Spears, later with atlatls - "spear throwers" to improve range and accuracy, then bows, were significant tools. Yet, one of the most momentous inventions was the needle - still in use almost unchanged today. This device could produce layered clothing, a major adaptive step in times of abrupt weather changes.

Weather changes can be due to single events - even those occurring at intervals like El Nino. A critical solitary event happened around 6200 BCE with the "implosion" of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The cascade of fresh water into the North Atlantic created drought conditions throughout Europe and the eastern Mediterranean while raising ocean levels. This rise later led to a catastrophe when the Mediterranean found an outlet to the Euxine Lake. The inflow created the Black Sea, driving people west into the Danube Valley and changing human society in the area drastically. Continuing fluctuations brought further challenges to increasing populations. Stable food supplies provided by agriculture reduced mobility and fed population growth. The cost was people tied to the land and a new vulnerability to climate change.

Fagan's example of this new situation is found in the history of a California people known as the Chumash. These coastal people had deep ties with family members living inland. The arrangement kept food supplies relatively stable through exchange networks. This continuum expanded over a large area resulting in concomitant population growth. When expansion was no longer feasible, war substituted for exchange systems. Not a violent people, the conflicts were the result of environmental pressure on food resources. A drastic social change took place around 1150 AD. The lost networks were restored through a new arrangement. The family system was shelved for a new oligarchy of powerful community leaders working cooperatively with meagre, but sustaining food stocks. While the Chumash remained vulnerable to climate vagaries, they didn't starve as in the past.

Fagan stresses that vulnerability has been built into modern society. Civilisation is a high-stakes game, and the planet is the banker. Most of the cards we played in the past are now in the discard pile. Mobility is not an option when the planet is so thoroughly occupied. New technologies will not provide new lands submerged by rising seas nor blighted by drought. If the Gulf Stream fails again, as it has in the past, it will be all Europe faced with the need for a new home. Where? A Europe covered in ice will produce drought throughout western Asia and likely beyond. It isn't the cause of climate change that requires examination, but what must be done to deal with, Fagan urges. The "stewardship" of resources successfully adopted by some societies must be invoked again. That requires a knowledgeable population, briefed by readers of this book. This is far from a "should read" book - it is a "must read" for us all. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

Good overview, but needs more concluding analysis
This book describes the impact of climate change on human history from the last Ice Age to 1200, with a very brief commentary on modern times. The many examples Fagan cites illustrate the vulnerability of past civilizations, particularly to drought. The author demonstrates the wide-ranging knowledge of archaeology and anthropology we have come to expect from him. He explains climatic science in layman's terms, with helpful maps and diagrams.

Fagan wants to convince us that our present civilization also is vulnerable to climatic change. As he puts it, we have accepted vulnerability to the big, rare disaster in exchange for a better ability to handle the smaller, more common stresses. Unfortunately, his short concluding chapter does not develop that argument sufficiently. A bit more prognostication would have been welcome.

The Long Summer
The Long Summer is a brilliant account of climate change and human society over the past 15,000 years. We learn about Cro-Magnons, the first Americans, the beginnings of farming, and explore the rise and fall of early civilizations.